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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 7›UVA @ SMU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ MTSU0
FIU @ JXST0
KENN @ MOST0
WKU @ SHSU0
GASO @ ODU0
ECU @ UAB0
CSU @ TXST0
MEM @ TULN0
WASH @ PUR0
APP @ CCU0
MSST @ LSU0
OSU @ IU0
NU @ MSU0
UNC @ DUKE0
ALA @ TENN0
AUB @ UGA0
UVA @ SMU0
TCU @ BAY0
UNM @ HAW0
PITT @ BC0
FLA @ TEX0
OKST @ HOU0
BALL @ BGSU0
TOL @ EMU0
ARST @ USM0
LT @ ULM0
ARK @ VAN0
CIN @ WVU0
KU @ KSU0
OHIO @ SAC0
MASS @ BUF0
KENT @ USF0
WAKE @ CAL0
UTAH @ COLO0
ND @ BYU0
GAST @ JMU0
NAVY @ UTSA0
RUTG @ MD0
TLSA @ RICE0
MIZ @ MISS0
CLT @ TEM0
AKR @ M-OH0
UK @ OU0
PSU @ MICH0
FSU @ MIA0
TROY @ UL0
GT @ VT0
WIS @ UCLA0
LOU @ SYR0
ASU @ TTU0
WMU @ CMU0
NEB @ ORE0
FAU @ ARMY0
NIU @ WYO0
UNLV @ AF0
WSU @ ORST0
NEV @ NDSU0
SJSU @ UTEP0
FRES @ SDSU0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
VIRGINIA
SMU
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|GERALD J. FORD STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP16|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#25AP
25FPI
UVAACCVIRGINIA
2-0
62
50
73
10%
46
53
0.0
—
—
HOME
#17AP
24FPI
SMUACCSMU
2-0
78
76
71
57%
28
54
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
UVA47CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
28
PROE
67
TEMPO
46
EXPLOSIVE28p
28
PROE67p
67
TEMPO46p
46
SMU69CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
85
PROE
93
TEMPO
28
EXPLOSIVE85p
85
PROE93p
93
TEMPO28p
28
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
UVARECORD MATCHES
10-3ACTUALvs9.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+11.6
VIRGINIA won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
SMURECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.0-3.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.3
SMU won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERVIRGINIASMU2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB99%Chandler MorrisQB · 89% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaniel KaelinQB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB82%J'Mari TaylorRB · 58% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHarrison WayleeRB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE73%Sage EnnisTE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJahmal EdrineWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrell HarrisPORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB67%Emmanuel KarnleyPORTAL · WASHINGTON · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJa'Son PrevardPORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin NealS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL66%Mitchell MeltonDE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaniel RickertDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob HolmesDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL40%Jack WitmerOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrady WilsonOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB32%James JacksonLB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBBeau Pribula · PORTAL ★4 · MISSOURIREFILLED
RBJekail Middlebrook · PORTAL ★3 · MIDDLE TENNESSEEPeyton Lewis · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEEREFILLED
WR/TEDa'Shawn Martin · PORTAL ★3 · KENT STATEConnor Cox · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINARico Flores Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · UCLA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBBrandyn Hillman · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGANJustin Ross · PORTAL ★3 · NAVYJaylen Jones · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA STATE5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLMatthew Fobbs-White · PORTAL ★3 · BAYLORZion Wilson · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINANnanna Anyanwu · PORTAL ★3 · UTSA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLAlex Payne · PORTAL ★3 · USCPARTIAL
LBDerek Uran · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · VIRGINIA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
40.250 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
40.553 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
39.950 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB747492061 OF 6 GRADED
RB5252635175 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE525272652511 OF 25 GRADED
OL626271702011 OF 20 GRADED
DL626263492012 OF 20 GRADED
LB45455094105 OF 10 GRADED
DB525263312313 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE62nd62
BLUE-CHIP RATIO12%56
RECRUITING CLASS#111 · 0/15 BC17
CLASS RANK TREND-23 · 3 CYCLES4
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 31 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SMURHETT LASHLEE5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7575
PACE
8383
PASS RATE
6161
EXPLOSIVENESS
9191
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4848
HAVOC
8484
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UVATONY ELLIOTT5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6868
PACE
7676
PASS RATE
6969
EXPLOSIVENESS
2020
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3535
HAVOC
4545
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUVA OFFENSESMU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBVIRGINIA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
10OF 138
TAL
92
PERF
74
RET
0
NATIONAL
16OF 136
RET
30
FULL DEFENSESMU DEFENSE
UVA QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELI HOLSTEINQBPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
504TH YR—64★3+23 2025
BEAU PRIBULAQBPORTAL · MISSOURI
494TH YR7192★4+31
COLE GEERQBRET
432ND YR—65★3—
BOONE LOURDQBRET
353RD YR—45★3—
ELY HAMRICKQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—50★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 47 PLAYERS60% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4415%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
6069%10%
SECONDARYDB
5043%11%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLVIRGINIA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
37OF 138
TAL
71
PERF
62
RET
70
DL
94OF 138
DL RET
15
LB
29OF 138
LB RET
69
FRONT-7SMU DEFENSE
UVA OFFENSIVE LINEn=2030% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NOAH JOSEYOLRET
674TH YR10083★3+16
MCKALE BOLEYOLRET
654TH YR9959★3-15
MONROE MILLSOLRET
554TH YR10097★4-9
DRAKE METCALFOLRET
534TH YR8845★3+10 2025
DANE WLEKLINSKIOLRET
523RD YR2154★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS63% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALCOLM ALCORN-CROWDERDLPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
544TH YR6264★3+28
TREY WILSONDERET
514TH YR—78★3+21 2025
KEVIN ALLENDLRET
503RD YR—61★3-33 2025
BRANDON MIYAZONOLBRET
504TH YR—44★3-47 2025
XAVIER WRIGHTLBRET
492ND YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBVIRGINIA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
65OF 138
TAL
63
PERF
52
RET
51
DL
94OF 138
DL RET
15
LB
29OF 138
LB RET
69
FRONT-7SMU DEFENSE
UVA RUNNING BACKSn=749% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PEYTON LEWISRBPORTAL · TENNESSEE
553RD YR7664★3+3
XAVIER BROWNRBRET
544TH YR8364★3-5
JEKAIL MIDDLEBROOKRBPORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE
504TH YR8964★3-1
NOAH VAUGHNRBRET
484TH YR5355★3+17
XAY DAVISRBRET
472ND YR4161★3-21
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS61% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554415%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456069%10%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEVIRGINIA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
55OF 138
TAL
72
PERF
52
RET
65
DB
79OF 138
DB RET
43
SECONDARYSMU DEFENSE
UVA PASS CATCHERSn=2535% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DAKOTA TWITTYTERET
604TH YR6888★4-27
JACQUON GIBSONWRPORTAL · MASSACHUSETTS
524TH YR9564★3+1
TY'LYRIC COLEMANWRRET
514TH YR3949★3—
ISAIAH ROBINSONWRRET
502ND YR—71★3—
CONNOR COXTEPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
484TH YR3278★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM57% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JARVIS LEESPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
864TH YR—45★3-1 2025
JAYVON THOMASCBPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
544TH YR—64★3-37 2025
LA'MODRICK SPENCERSRET
534TH YR—54★3—
MARCELLUS BARNES JR.CBRET
523RD YR—89★3-2 2025
JAVION HOLIDAYCBRET
502ND YR—75★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UVA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SMU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE 2025
43.1
61.2
— OFFENSE 2025
48.2
64.2
— DEFENSE 2025
38.0
58.1
SP+ OVERALL
12.7
15.3
FPI
12.6
13.8
ELO
1652
1734
TALENT
700
765
PRODUCTION
74
82
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−18
−10
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.13
0.31
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UVA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SMU
OFF EFFICIENCY
41
61
DEF EFFICIENCY
87
67
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
67
93
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
69
67
FINISHING DRIVES
51
85
FIELD POSITION
22
81
TURNOVER MARGIN
90
75
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UVA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SMU
PASS RATE
28.5%
55.8%
PACE
27.7s
30.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
73.8%
52.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
37.0%
80.7%
PLAYS / GAME
65.0
60.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.1%
2.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UVA, ORANGE = SMU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE