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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 7›WAKE @ CAL›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ MTSU0
FIU @ JXST0
KENN @ MOST0
WKU @ SHSU0
GASO @ ODU0
ECU @ UAB0
CSU @ TXST0
MEM @ TULN0
WASH @ PUR0
APP @ CCU0
MSST @ LSU0
OSU @ IU0
NU @ MSU0
UNC @ DUKE0
ALA @ TENN0
AUB @ UGA0
UVA @ SMU0
TCU @ BAY0
UNM @ HAW0
PITT @ BC0
FLA @ TEX0
OKST @ HOU0
BALL @ BGSU0
TOL @ EMU0
ARST @ USM0
LT @ ULM0
ARK @ VAN0
CIN @ WVU0
KU @ KSU0
OHIO @ SAC0
MASS @ BUF0
KENT @ USF0
WAKE @ CAL0
UTAH @ COLO0
ND @ BYU0
GAST @ JMU0
NAVY @ UTSA0
RUTG @ MD0
TLSA @ RICE0
MIZ @ MISS0
CLT @ TEM0
AKR @ M-OH0
UK @ OU0
PSU @ MICH0
FSU @ MIA0
TROY @ UL0
GT @ VT0
WIS @ UCLA0
LOU @ SYR0
ASU @ TTU0
WMU @ CMU0
NEB @ ORE0
FAU @ ARMY0
NIU @ WYO0
UNLV @ AF0
WSU @ ORST0
NEV @ NDSU0
SJSU @ UTEP0
FRES @ SDSU0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
WAKE FOREST
CALIFORNIA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|CALIFORNIA MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP22|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
54FPI
WAKEACCWAKE FOREST
2-1
55
24
98
14%
45
72
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
73FPI
CALACCCALIFORNIA
2-1
77
43
66
58%
86
69
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
WAKE56CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
75
PROE
49
TEMPO
45
EXPLOSIVE75p
75
PROE49p
49
TEMPO45p
45
CAL81CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
61
PROE
96
TEMPO
86
EXPLOSIVE61p
61
PROE96p
96
TEMPO86p
86
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
WAKERECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.5-4.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.3
WAKE FOREST won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CALRECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs5.5-6.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.7
CALIFORNIA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWAKE FORESTCALIFORNIA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Robby AshfordQB · 80% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeshawn PurdiePORTAL · LIBERTY · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL75%George SellOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMelvin SianiOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin KylanyOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE72%Eni FalayiTE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSterling BerkhalterPORTAL · TEXAS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMicah Mays Jr.PORTAL · FLORIDA · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB62%Demond ClaiborneDRAFTED · 56% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaMario ClementsRB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB50%Nick AndersenDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKaron PruntyDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLardarius Webb Jr.DB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB48%Dylan HazenLB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuincy BryantLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL36%Jayden LovingDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNuer GatkuothDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMateen IbirogbaPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBGrant Lawless · SIGNEE ★4Gannon Jones · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLLangston Hogg · SIGNEE ★3Fletcher Turk · SIGNEE ★3Dylan Durbin · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEWondame Davis Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · UTEPLandon Morris · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIAChase Tyler · PORTAL ★3 · DUKE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBKyndall McCaleb · SIGNEE ★4Deuce Lawrence · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBBrian Blades ll · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA INTERNATIONALAJ Marks · SIGNEE ★3Mahamadou Siby · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBMonroe Partin · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLSefa Sackey · SIGNEE ★3Lucas Smalls-Allen · SIGNEE ★3Ryan Harrington · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WAKE FOREST
CARRIED COMPOSITE
46.769 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
31.236 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
55.386 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6161631052 OF 5 GRADED
RB5151685084 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE626256442513 OF 25 GRADED
OL70705442219 OF 21 GRADED
DL707050881912 OF 19 GRADED
LB55555462106 OF 10 GRADED
DB585855672310 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE55th55
BLUE-CHIP RATIO10%47
RECRUITING CLASS#39 · 3/31 BC71
CLASS RANK TREND+13 · 3 CYCLES76
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-4 · 24 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CALTOSH LUPOIFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WAKEJAKE DICKERT2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9494
PACE
5050
PASS RATE
8787
EXPLOSIVENESS
9090
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6868
HAVOC
5858
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWAKE OFFENSECAL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWAKE FOREST OFFENSE
NATIONAL
43OF 138
TAL
63
PERF
61
RET
10
NATIONAL
70OF 136
RET
17
FULL DEFENSECALIFORNIA DEFENSE
WAKE QUARTERBACKSn=590% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GIO LOPEZQBPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
553RD YR8864★3+23
STEELE PIZZELLAQBRET
411ST YR1055★3—
GRANT LAWLESSQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—91★4—
GANNON JONESQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—64★3—
BILLY JOHNSONQBRET
323RD YR—6★2—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS68% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3125%13%
LINEBACKERSLB
3633%25%
SECONDARYDB
5235%32%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWAKE FOREST OFFENSE
NATIONAL
12OF 138
TAL
54
PERF
70
RET
42
DL
122OF 138
DL RET
25
LB
113OF 138
LB RET
33
FRONT-7CALIFORNIA DEFENSE
WAKE OFFENSIVE LINEn=2158% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CLINTON RICHARDOLRET
732ND YR—81★3+49 2025
RYAN BERGEROLPORTAL · OREGON STATE
683RD YR7264★3+41 2025
TOLU OLAJIDEOLPORTAL · NEW HAMPSHIRE
524TH YR4145★3—
JOHN OHNEGIANOLPORTAL · BUCKNELL
524TH YR1945★3—
JACK HINESOLRET
502ND YR5480★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS71% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JERICHO JOHNSONDLPORTAL · OREGON
522ND YR3992★4—
DEREK WILKINSDLRET
524TH YR7685★4-24
ODERA OKAKALBRET
524TH YR—9★2—
SOLOMON WILLIAMSLBPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
502ND YR—78★3—
AJ TUITELELBPORTAL · USC
501ST YR2464★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWAKE FOREST OFFENSE
NATIONAL
71OF 138
TAL
68
PERF
51
RET
50
DL
122OF 138
DL RET
25
LB
113OF 138
LB RET
33
FRONT-7CALIFORNIA DEFENSE
WAKE RUNNING BACKSn=850% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TY CLARK IIIRBRET
653RD YR6361★3+0
DEUCE LAWRENCERBTRUE FR
501ST YR2778★3+29
JAMAR SEARCYRBRET
501ST YR1854★3—
KD DANIELSRBPORTAL · FLORIDA
482ND YR4664★3-13
KALIL TOWNESRBRET
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS71% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553125%13%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453633%25%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWAKE FOREST OFFENSE
NATIONAL
26OF 138
TAL
56
PERF
62
RET
44
DB
64OF 138
DB RET
35
SECONDARYCALIFORNIA DEFENSE
WAKE PASS CATCHERSn=2556% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LANDON MORRISTEPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
574TH YR6278★3+38
CARLOS HERNANDEZWRRET
554TH YR9578★3+20
KAMREAN JOHNSONTERET
554TH YR5864★3+14
DOMINICK BARRYTETRUE FR
521ST YR1368★3—
MATTHEW LUSARDITERET
524TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM65% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAM SIDNEYDBRET
584TH YR8778★3+3
JAE'ON YOUNGDBRET
511ST YR1685★4—
MICHAEL HURST JR.DBTRUE FR
504TH YR622★3—
KHAMANI HUDSONDBRET
491ST YR2748★3—
RICKY FLETCHERDBPORTAL · OLE MISS
474TH YR9685★3-23
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WAKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
50.6
44.2
— OFFENSE
59.5
53.7
— DEFENSE
41.7
34.8
SP+ OVERALL
3.4
-0.6
FPI
4.6
-1.5
ELO
1514
1353
TALENT
681
752
PRODUCTION
59
57
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−9
−3
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.10
0.25
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WAKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
OFF EFFICIENCY
15
35
DEF EFFICIENCY
93
43
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
98
53
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
63
78
FINISHING DRIVES
21
54
FIELD POSITION
22
89
TURNOVER MARGIN
8
35
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WAKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
PASS RATE
57.7%
57.2%
PACE
27.8s
25.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
51.5%
54.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
77.4%
80.3%
PLAYS / GAME
64.7
71.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WAKE, ORANGE = CAL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE