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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 7›KENT @ USF›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ MTSU0
FIU @ JXST0
KENN @ MOST0
WKU @ SHSU0
GASO @ ODU0
ECU @ UAB0
CSU @ TXST0
MEM @ TULN0
WASH @ PUR0
APP @ CCU0
MSST @ LSU0
OSU @ IU0
NU @ MSU0
UNC @ DUKE0
ALA @ TENN0
AUB @ UGA0
UVA @ SMU0
TCU @ BAY0
UNM @ HAW0
PITT @ BC0
FLA @ TEX0
OKST @ HOU0
BALL @ BGSU0
TOL @ EMU0
ARST @ USM0
LT @ ULM0
ARK @ VAN0
CIN @ WVU0
KU @ KSU0
OHIO @ SAC0
MASS @ BUF0
KENT @ USF0
WAKE @ CAL0
UTAH @ COLO0
ND @ BYU0
GAST @ JMU0
NAVY @ UTSA0
RUTG @ MD0
TLSA @ RICE0
MIZ @ MISS0
CLT @ TEM0
AKR @ M-OH0
UK @ OU0
PSU @ MICH0
FSU @ MIA0
TROY @ UL0
GT @ VT0
WIS @ UCLA0
LOU @ SYR0
ASU @ TTU0
WMU @ CMU0
NEB @ ORE0
FAU @ ARMY0
NIU @ WYO0
UNLV @ AF0
WSU @ ORST0
NEV @ NDSU0
SJSU @ UTEP0
FRES @ SDSU0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
KENT STATE
SOUTH FLORIDA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|RAYMOND JAMES STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP57|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
136FPI
KENTMACKENT STATE
1-2
6
26
6
64%
9
2
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
63FPI
USFAACSOUTH FLORIDA
3-0
63
84
48
13%
16
29
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
KENT27CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
58
PROE
15
TEMPO
9
EXPLOSIVE58p
58
PROE15p
15
TEMPO9p
9
USF33CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
32
PROE
50
TEMPO
16
EXPLOSIVE32p
32
PROE50p
50
TEMPO16p
16
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
KENTRECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs3.0-9.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-12.3
KENT STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USFRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+19.7
SOUTH FLORIDA won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERKENT STATESOUTH FLORIDA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB86%Mason WoodsLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ YoungPORTAL · MIAMI (OH) · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamond MathisPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL61%Mattheus CarrollDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMason MaddoxDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAntoine Campbell Jr.DL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB56%Gavin GarciaPORTAL · THE CITADEL · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan NubinRB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJahzae KimbroughPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA STATE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL53%Garrett MastersonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAshton RiveraOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMatt PajusteOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB50%Jaire RawlisonPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerrell MillerCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTevin TuckerPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE47%Da'Shawn MartinPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSebastian BrownWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian BerryTE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB13%CJ MontesQB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin KargmanPORTAL · CONCORD · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBHayden Dawahare · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYNate Gregory · PORTAL ★3 · COASTAL CAROLINARocco Nicholl · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH FLORIDA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLKale Webb · SIGNEE ★3Jacob Broach · SIGNEE ★3Eckley Bridges · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJakorion Caffey · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATIJackson Farley · SIGNEE ★3Brandon White · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLWilliam Johnson III · SIGNEE ★3Colin Prichard · SIGNEE ★3Gavin Kanar · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBDavion Pritchard · PORTAL ★3 · PITTSBURGHNorey Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · HOUSTON CHRISTIANLennox Lemon · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEJavier Willis · PORTAL ★3 · TIFFIN UNIVERSITYZymir Reed · SIGNEE ★3Brendyn Smith · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBEthan Thanthanavong · PORTAL ★3 · DEFIANCE COLLEGEINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · KENT STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
38.244 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
55.081 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
30.421 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4343319663 OF 6 GRADED
RB45451445106 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE535335942211 OF 22 GRADED
OL31313433199 OF 19 GRADED
DL383825731912 OF 19 GRADED
LB38383434129 OF 12 GRADED
DB353529651613 OF 16 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE6th6
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%10
RECRUITING CLASS#122 · 0/18 BC9
CLASS RANK TREND-25 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 11 IN / 15 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USFBRIAN HARTLINEFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
KENTMARK CARNEY2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1111
PACE
00
PASS RATE
2727
EXPLOSIVENESS
9595
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6969
HAVOC
1111
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESKENT OFFENSEUSF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBKENT STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
104OF 138
TAL
31
PERF
43
RET
96
NATIONAL
44OF 136
RET
12
FULL DEFENSESOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE
KENT QUARTERBACKSn=64% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DRU DESHIELDSQBRET
493RD YR6532★3+13
DEANTE RUFFINQBRET
491ST YR—53★3—
NOLAN GOODQBRET
481ST YR2032★3—
ETHAN THANTHANAVONGQBPORTAL · DEFIANCE COLLEGE
382ND YR217★3—
GAVIN PEEPSQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS57% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5247%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
5456%13%
SECONDARYDB
5237%13%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLKENT STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
131OF 138
TAL
34
PERF
31
RET
33
DL
58OF 138
DL RET
47
LB
45OF 138
LB RET
56
FRONT-7SOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE
KENT OFFENSIVE LINEn=1967% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEN MIDEAOLTRUE FR
493RD YR——UNR—
WILLIAM JOHNSON IIIOLTRUE FR
491ST YR—52★3—
MOFE ADEWOLEOLTRUE FR
494TH YR——UNR—
CECIL WILSONOLRET
483RD YR——UNR—
JAXON DUNNOLRET
482ND YR—16★3-6 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS49% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RYAN JENKINSDTRET
623RD YR5365★3—
ASANI REDWOODDTPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
564TH YR9154★3-12
MICHAEL WILLIAMS IIDERET
554TH YR9082★3+20
GAVIN LEACHLBRET
522ND YR2632★3—
ASHTON MOSLEYLBRET
522ND YR4249★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBKENT STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
106OF 138
TAL
14
PERF
45
RET
45
DL
58OF 138
DL RET
47
LB
45OF 138
LB RET
56
FRONT-7SOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE
KENT RUNNING BACKSn=1055% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MASON KINGRBPORTAL · ILLINOIS STATE
504TH YR42—UNR-52
BRANDON WHITERBTRUE FR
491ST YR1431★3—
HUNTER HOPPERTONFBRET
484TH YR—2★3-57 2025
JAKORION CAFFEYRBPORTAL · CINCINNATI
482ND YR1617★3—
AYDEN HARRISRBRET
472ND YR4426★3-41
SHOW ALL 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS49% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555247%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455456%13%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEKENT STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
52OF 138
TAL
35
PERF
53
RET
94
DB
65OF 138
DB RET
37
SECONDARYSOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE
KENT PASS CATCHERSn=226% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ARDELL BANKSWRRET
543RD YR—79★3+18 2025
DA'REALYST CLARKWRRET
504TH YR33—UNR—
TERIK MULDERTERET
494TH YR475★3+41
JARED KELLEYWRRET
493RD YR—62★3—
BRENDYN SMITHWRTRUE FR
481ST YR—55★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM63% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AYDEN JACKSONDBPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN
614TH YR96—UNR+30
TEDDY FOSTERCBPORTAL · FLORIDA
523RD YR3564★3—
JABARI SMITHDBRET
522ND YR—46★3—
ISRAEL BOYCESPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
503RD YR6545★3+20
HERLIN PERRY JR.CBRET
501ST YR2552★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
KENT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
37.5
40.5
— OFFENSE
40.6
38.4
— DEFENSE
34.3
42.7
SP+ OVERALL
-21.5
-1.1
FPI
-23.2
0.8
ELO
1007
1682
TALENT
523
704
PRODUCTION
7
47
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
0
+2
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.02
0.13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
KENT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
OFF EFFICIENCY
3
84
DEF EFFICIENCY
21
80
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
89
72
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
48
20
FINISHING DRIVES
47
94
FIELD POSITION
63
41
TURNOVER MARGIN
20
93
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
KENT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
PASS RATE
42.4%
47.7%
PACE
31.8s
30.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
63.8%
57.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
52.3%
60.8%
PLAYS / GAME
56.7
58.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.1%
1.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = KENT, ORANGE = USF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE