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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 7›NEV @ NDSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ MTSU0
FIU @ JXST0
KENN @ MOST0
WKU @ SHSU0
GASO @ ODU0
ECU @ UAB0
CSU @ TXST0
MEM @ TULN0
WASH @ PUR0
APP @ CCU0
MSST @ LSU0
OSU @ IU0
NU @ MSU0
UNC @ DUKE0
ALA @ TENN0
AUB @ UGA0
UVA @ SMU0
TCU @ BAY0
UNM @ HAW0
PITT @ BC0
FLA @ TEX0
OKST @ HOU0
BALL @ BGSU0
TOL @ EMU0
ARST @ USM0
LT @ ULM0
ARK @ VAN0
CIN @ WVU0
KU @ KSU0
OHIO @ SAC0
MASS @ BUF0
KENT @ USF0
WAKE @ CAL0
UTAH @ COLO0
ND @ BYU0
GAST @ JMU0
NAVY @ UTSA0
RUTG @ MD0
TLSA @ RICE0
MIZ @ MISS0
CLT @ TEM0
AKR @ M-OH0
UK @ OU0
PSU @ MICH0
FSU @ MIA0
TROY @ UL0
GT @ VT0
WIS @ UCLA0
LOU @ SYR0
ASU @ TTU0
WMU @ CMU0
NEB @ ORE0
FAU @ ARMY0
NIU @ WYO0
UNLV @ AF0
WSU @ ORST0
NEV @ NDSU0
SJSU @ UTEP0
FRES @ SDSU0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NEVADA
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 19:00 ET|FARGODOMECONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
88FPI
NEVMWCNEVADA
1-1
15
15
33
36%
37
45
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
66FPI
NDSUMWCNORTH DAKOTA STATE
3-0
5
0
0
0%
44
27
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
NEV40CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
72
PROE
11
TEMPO
37
EXPLOSIVE72p
72
PROE11p
11
TEMPO37p
37
NDSU55CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
66
TEMPO
44
EXPLOSIVE66p
66
TEMPO44p
44
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
NEVRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.1-8.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-9.9
NEVADA won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNEVADANORTH DAKOTA STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE86%Jett CarpenterPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJace HenryTE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcus BellonWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB84%Stone CombsPORTAL · RICE · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNakian JacksonPORTAL · JAMES MADISON · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin HarnetiauxPORTAL · RICE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB76%Murvin Kenion IIIDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAJ OdumsCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEdward RhamboDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB58%Caleb RamseurRB · 57% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL56%Thomas WitteDT · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJonathan MaldonadoPORTAL · OLE MISS · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNelson RopatiDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL51%Andrew MadrigalOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh GrabowskiOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrenton ScottOL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB31%Chubba PurdyQB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEDonnie Cheers · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATEIsaiah Williams · SIGNEE ★3Amari Nash · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBPoasa Utu · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATECJ Mooring · SIGNEE ★3Jaxon Cannida · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJaylen Webb · PORTAL ★3 · BOISE STATEJoey Thomas III · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBBronwyn Rios · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLMatt Perez · SIGNEE ★3Sam Davidson IV · SIGNEE ★3Jeremiah Nonu · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLEthan Newman · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHISTerrence Johnson · SIGNEE ★3Colton Hogge · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
QBDeven Vigue · SIGNEE ★3Reeve Slone · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NEVADA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
25.816 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
24.222 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
26.717 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB33335510041 OF 4 GRADED
RB5050419775 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE3737311322CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL404047016CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL40402283189 OF 18 GRADED
LB38383742104 OF 10 GRADED
DB484833382110 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE15th15
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%18
RECRUITING CLASS#98 · 0/24 BC27
CLASS RANK TREND+29 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 14 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NDSUTIM POLASEKFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NEVJEFF CHOATE3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1212
PACE
77
PASS RATE
2626
EXPLOSIVENESS
2424
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7878
HAVOC
1515
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNEV OFFENSENDSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNEVADA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
129OF 138
TAL
55
PERF
33
RET
100
NATIONAL
—
RET
—
FULL DEFENSENORTH DAKOTA STATE DEFENSE
NEV QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LUKE DUNCANQBPORTAL · UCLA
523RD YR—82★3+1 2025
AJ BIANCOQBRET
444TH YR—36★3-26 2025
CARTER JONESQBRET
412ND YR5855★3+3
REEVE SLONEQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—36★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NDSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 60 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
67—0%
LINEBACKERSLB
37—0%
SECONDARYDB
59—0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNEVADA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
109OF 138
TAL
47
PERF
40
RET
0
DL
15OF 138
DL RET
—
LB
109OF 138
LB RET
—
FRONT-7NORTH DAKOTA STATE DEFENSE
NEV OFFENSIVE LINEn=16100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SNOOP LEOTA-AMAAMAOLRET
504TH YR—17★3+39 2025
JACK FOSTEROLRET
504TH YR—45★3-9 2025
ZACH COCHNAUEROLRET
464TH YR—78★3-9 2025
ETHAN NEWMANOLPORTAL · MEMPHIS
463RD YR—45★3+43 2025
HENRY SELLARDSOLRET
432ND YR—27★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NDSU FRONT-7n=37 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MATTHEW STENBROTENDERET
522ND YR3351★3—
KELTON MCCASLINDERET
524TH YR321★2—
KEENAN WILSONDTRET
523RD YR3013★2—
BLAKE SCHILTZDERET
521ST YR2213★2—
OBALD NIYONKURUDTRET
523RD YR22—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNEVADA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
79OF 138
TAL
41
PERF
50
RET
97
DL
15OF 138
DL RET
—
LB
109OF 138
LB RET
—
FRONT-7NORTH DAKOTA STATE DEFENSE
NEV RUNNING BACKSn=73% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CARTER JACKSONRBRET
521ST YR2464★3+33
DOMINIC KELLEYRBRET
482ND YR4442★3+23
KY WOODSRBRET
474TH YR4322★3-4
HERSCHEL TURNERRBRET
463RD YR7845★3-9
JANERIOUS JACKSONRBTRUE FR
383RD YR128★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NDSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 37 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.5567—0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4537—0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENEVADA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
126OF 138
TAL
31
PERF
37
RET
13
DB
31OF 138
DB RET
—
SECONDARYNORTH DAKOTA STATE DEFENSE
NEV PASS CATCHERSn=2287% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DJ ASIASITERET
501ST YR854★3—
MARSHAUN BROWNWRRET
463RD YR7032★3-4
GARY GIVENS IIIWRTRUE FR
413RD YR68—UNR+25
GERICK ROBINSONWRRET
404TH YR—21★3—
DONNIE CHEERSWRPORTAL · SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
373RD YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NDSU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DARIUS GIVANCESRET
514TH YR34—UNR—
DJ VOLTZCBTRUE FR
494TH YR33—UNR—
JAYLIN CRUMBYSRET
493RD YR25—UNR—
MARION MOORECBRET
481ST YR3527★3—
CHANCE TUCKERCBTRUE FR
474TH YR4176★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NEV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NDSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
43.3
53.0
— OFFENSE
42.1
51.8
— DEFENSE
44.6
54.2
SP+ OVERALL
-7.6
4.2
FPI
-5.1
0.7
ELO
1451
1567
TALENT
550
516
PRODUCTION
22
46
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−3
−3
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.03
0.00
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NEV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NDSU
PASS RATE
38.9%
39.2%
PACE
28.6s
27.8s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
70.6%
68.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
58.5%
57.1%
PLAYS / GAME
63.0
64.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.6%
1.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NEV, ORANGE = NDSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE