SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2026 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 7›NIU @ WYO›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ MTSU0
FIU @ JXST0
KENN @ MOST0
WKU @ SHSU0
GASO @ ODU0
ECU @ UAB0
CSU @ TXST0
MEM @ TULN0
WASH @ PUR0
APP @ CCU0
MSST @ LSU0
OSU @ IU0
NU @ MSU0
UNC @ DUKE0
ALA @ TENN0
AUB @ UGA0
UVA @ SMU0
TCU @ BAY0
UNM @ HAW0
PITT @ BC0
FLA @ TEX0
OKST @ HOU0
BALL @ BGSU0
TOL @ EMU0
ARST @ USM0
LT @ ULM0
ARK @ VAN0
CIN @ WVU0
KU @ KSU0
OHIO @ SAC0
MASS @ BUF0
KENT @ USF0
WAKE @ CAL0
UTAH @ COLO0
ND @ BYU0
GAST @ JMU0
NAVY @ UTSA0
RUTG @ MD0
TLSA @ RICE0
MIZ @ MISS0
CLT @ TEM0
AKR @ M-OH0
UK @ OU0
PSU @ MICH0
FSU @ MIA0
TROY @ UL0
GT @ VT0
WIS @ UCLA0
LOU @ SYR0
ASU @ TTU0
WMU @ CMU0
NEB @ ORE0
FAU @ ARMY0
NIU @ WYO0
UNLV @ AF0
WSU @ ORST0
NEV @ NDSU0
SJSU @ UTEP0
FRES @ SDSU0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
WYOMING
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 15:30 ET|WAR MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
132FPI
NIUMWCNORTHERN ILLINOIS
0-2
9
3
26
44%
24
34
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
130FPI
WYOMWCWYOMING
1-1
8
4
77
23%
7
42
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
NIU10CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
2
PROE
3
TEMPO
24
EXPLOSIVE2p
2
PROE3p
3
TEMPO24p
24
WYO16CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
0
PROE
42
TEMPO
7
EXPLOSIVE0p
0
PROE42p
42
TEMPO7p
7
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
NIURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.6-8.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.3
NORTHERN ILLINOIS won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
WYORECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.3-7.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.5
WYOMING won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNORTHERN ILLINOISWYOMING2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB93%Quinn UrwilerLB · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFilip MaciorowskiPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarc PrettoPORTAL · COLORADO STATE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB89%Jasper BeelerPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob FinleyPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMuhammed JammehS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL83%Mark HensleyPORTAL · MISSOURI · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRoy WilliamsDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalonnie WilliamsDE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL68%Evan MalcoreOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAbiathar CurryOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAidan TweedyOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB58%Chavon WrightRB · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLazaro RogersPORTAL · MIAMI (OH) · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB57%Josh HolstPORTAL · SOUTH DAKOTA STATE · 55% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE49%Jake ApplegetPORTAL · FRESNO STATE · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGary Givens IIIPORTAL · NEVADA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBRoss Ogden · SIGNEE ★3Jack Murray · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBTyrese Stanley · PORTAL ★3 · MOREHOUSE COLLEGETyrese Stanley · PORTAL ★3 · MOREHOUSEAvery Jones · PORTAL ★3 · LAFAYETTE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJvon Hatcher · SIGNEE ★3Ryan Hassett · SIGNEE ★3Terry Robinson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBrendan Alexander · SIGNEE ★3Cian Mahoney · SIGNEE ★3Brendan Grabot · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBJaiduan Cranford · SIGNEE ★3Da'sean Howard · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBTaron Dickens · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN CAROLINABryshawn Brown · SIGNEE ★3Asa Johnson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEBraylon Agee · SIGNEE ★3Jermaine Green · SIGNEE ★3Zaire McKinney · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
21.78 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
41.857 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
11.86 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4444374672 OF 7 GRADED
RB6161267774 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE222235802210 OF 22 GRADED
OL36362440206 OF 20 GRADED
DL222227612313 OF 23 GRADED
LB3939—7105 OF 10 GRADED
DB494931281912 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE9th9
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#82 · 0/27 BC39
CLASS RANK TREND+17 · 3 CYCLES84
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 6 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
WYOJAY SAWVEL3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2727
PACE
4747
PASS RATE
5151
EXPLOSIVENESS
2929
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3737
HAVOC
1010
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NIUROB HARLEYFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNIU OFFENSEWYO OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNORTHERN ILLINOIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
101OF 138
TAL
37
PERF
44
RET
46
NATIONAL
47OF 136
RET
16
FULL DEFENSEWYOMING DEFENSE
NIU QUARTERBACKSn=754% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JALEN MACONQBRET
534TH YR4128★3-50
TARON DICKENSQBPORTAL · WESTERN CAROLINA
483RD YR2345★3—
BRADY DAVIDSONQBRET
402ND YR—32★3-56 2025
BRYSHAWN BROWNQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—75★3—
ASA JOHNSONQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—42★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WYO DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS29% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3451%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
3498%0%
SECONDARYDB
4872%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNORTHERN ILLINOIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
121OF 138
TAL
24
PERF
36
RET
40
DL
120OF 138
DL RET
51
LB
116OF 138
LB RET
98
FRONT-7WYOMING DEFENSE
NIU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2060% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LOGAN GROSSOLRET
502ND YR—17★3—
TYLER CHAMBERSOLRET
501ST YR—18★3—
LUKE SKARTVEDTOLRET
493RD YR—18★3—
BEN GUSTAFSONOLRET
492ND YR—53★3—
LANDON HRONOLRET
493RD YR—17★3+41 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WYO FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS30% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAYDEN WILLIAMS (DT)DTRET
553RD YR8816★3-9
JA'QUAN REDFERNDTPORTAL · MURRAY STATE
523RD YR—28★3—
JACK DUNKLEYDEPORTAL · DUQUESNE
504TH YR1417★3—
GARY RUTHERFORDLBRET
502ND YR3927★3—
CADE BROOKDERET
501ST YR1111★2—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNORTHERN ILLINOIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
28OF 138
TAL
26
PERF
61
RET
77
DL
120OF 138
DL RET
51
LB
116OF 138
LB RET
98
FRONT-7WYOMING DEFENSE
NIU RUNNING BACKSn=723% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELIJAH PORTERRBRET
522ND YR309★2+30 2025
TELLY JOHNSON JR.RBRET
503RD YR8925★3-11
TRISTON WHITERBRET
501ST YR532★3—
JAIDAUN CRANFORDRBTRUE FR
411ST YR559★3—
DA'SEAN HOWARDRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—41★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WYO FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS28% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553451%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453498%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENORTHERN ILLINOIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
138OF 138
TAL
35
PERF
22
RET
80
DB
89OF 138
DB RET
72
SECONDARYWYOMING DEFENSE
NIU PASS CATCHERSn=2220% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAM THOMPSONWRTRUE FR
574TH YR7764★3+16
DEAREE ROGERSWRRET
564TH YR7364★3+12
KELAN MCINERNEYWRTRUE FR
522ND YR—1★2—
GLEN WEBERTETRUE FR
513RD YR——UNR—
JASON FOWLERTERET
482ND YR—17★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WYO SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM28% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JONES THOMASSRET
683RD YR79—UNR-5
JETT VINCENTSPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
523RD YR4827★3—
THERMAN WILLIAMSSTRUE FR
501ST YR956★3—
KENDALL GRIFFINCBTRUE FR
501ST YR934★3—
TYSON SHAMSID-DEENCBRET
492ND YR2827★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WYO
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
43.5
43.1
— OFFENSE
42.6
43.6
— DEFENSE
44.5
42.5
SP+ OVERALL
-16.9
-13.7
FPI
-17.9
-17.3
ELO
1245
1309
TALENT
537
528
PRODUCTION
11
25
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−7
−21
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.00
0.01
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WYO
OFF EFFICIENCY
4
14
DEF EFFICIENCY
20
82
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
51
18
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
82
66
FINISHING DRIVES
18
4
FIELD POSITION
87
98
TURNOVER MARGIN
44
80
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WYO
PASS RATE
51.7%
41.1%
PACE
30.5s
33.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
61.7%
57.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
81.1%
38.7%
PLAYS / GAME
59.0
53.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
6.8%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NIU, ORANGE = WYO) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE