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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 7›OHIO @ SAC›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ MTSU0
FIU @ JXST0
KENN @ MOST0
WKU @ SHSU0
GASO @ ODU0
ECU @ UAB0
CSU @ TXST0
MEM @ TULN0
WASH @ PUR0
APP @ CCU0
MSST @ LSU0
OSU @ IU0
NU @ MSU0
UNC @ DUKE0
ALA @ TENN0
AUB @ UGA0
UVA @ SMU0
TCU @ BAY0
UNM @ HAW0
PITT @ BC0
FLA @ TEX0
OKST @ HOU0
BALL @ BGSU0
TOL @ EMU0
ARST @ USM0
LT @ ULM0
ARK @ VAN0
CIN @ WVU0
KU @ KSU0
OHIO @ SAC0
MASS @ BUF0
KENT @ USF0
WAKE @ CAL0
UTAH @ COLO0
ND @ BYU0
GAST @ JMU0
NAVY @ UTSA0
RUTG @ MD0
TLSA @ RICE0
MIZ @ MISS0
CLT @ TEM0
AKR @ M-OH0
UK @ OU0
PSU @ MICH0
FSU @ MIA0
TROY @ UL0
GT @ VT0
WIS @ UCLA0
LOU @ SYR0
ASU @ TTU0
WMU @ CMU0
NEB @ ORE0
FAU @ ARMY0
NIU @ WYO0
UNLV @ AF0
WSU @ ORST0
NEV @ NDSU0
SJSU @ UTEP0
FRES @ SDSU0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
OHIO
SACRAMENTO STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|HORNET STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP11|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
110FPI
OHIOMACOHIO
1-1
7
53
12
63%
46
15
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
138FPI
SACMACSACRAMENTO STATE
1-2
18
0
0
0%
46
15
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
OHIO30CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
31
PROE
13
TEMPO
46
EXPLOSIVE31p
31
PROE13p
13
TEMPO46p
46
SAC34CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
22
TEMPO
46
EXPLOSIVE22p
22
TEMPO46p
46
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
OHIORECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.8
OHIO won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROHIOSACRAMENTO STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB97%Parker NavarroQB · 97% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL96%Davion WeatherspoonOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick MarinaroOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordon JonesOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE84%Chase HendricksPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRodney Harris IIWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMason WilliamsPORTAL · OHIO STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB74%Adonis Williams Jr.S · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen ThomesonPORTAL · SAN DIEGO STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTank PearsonCB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB68%Sieh BanguraRB · 67% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL38%Anas LuqmanPORTAL · UCONN · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPius OdjugoDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB27%Cameron HollobaughLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMakel WilliamsLB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBLevi Davis · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLCJ Dawson · PORTAL ★3 · GARDNER-WEBBSandro Malicevic · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN ILLINOISTrumain Lawson · PORTAL ★3 · LIU POST4 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
WR/TEPreston Bowman · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYRiley Palmeter · PORTAL ★3 · MARIAN COLLEGERiley Palmeter · PORTAL ★3 · MARIAN3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBKJ Sejour · PORTAL ★3 · CHATTANOOGAKindall Brown · SIGNEE ★3James Brewer III · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBJames Kelly · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLTyler Gillison · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEAustin Adkins · SIGNEE ★3Nate Hunt-Heller · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OHIO
CARRIED COMPOSITE
32.028 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
9.74 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
45.561 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6666—9052 OF 5 GRADED
RB5858355054 OF 5 GRADED
WR/TE3131571922CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL333313017CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL38383767177 OF 17 GRADED
LB40402588115 OF 11 GRADED
DB30302961218 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE7th7
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#107 · 0/18 BC20
CLASS RANK TREND-15 · 3 CYCLES20
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 18 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SACALONZO CARTERFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OHIOJOHN HAUSERFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESOHIO OFFENSESAC OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOHIO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
25OF 138
TAL
—
PERF
66
RET
90
NATIONAL
—
RET
—
FULL DEFENSESACRAMENTO STATE DEFENSE
OHIO QUARTERBACKSn=510% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NICK POULOSQBRET
504TH YR46—UNR-47
LEVI DAVISQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
MATT VEZZAQBTRUE FR
353RD YR8—UNR—
HYPE GRANDQBRET
351ST YR—40★3—
MATTHEW PAPASQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SAC DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS74% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4428%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
3365%7%
SECONDARYDB
4413%14%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOHIO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
127OF 138
TAL
13
PERF
33
RET
0
DL
93OF 138
DL RET
28
LB
119OF 138
LB RET
65
FRONT-7SACRAMENTO STATE DEFENSE
OHIO OFFENSIVE LINEn=17100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SANDRO MALICEVICOLTRUE FR
374TH YR—28★3—
CASSIUS HULBERTOLTRUE FR
374TH YR—2★3—
BRYCE PARSONOLRET
522ND YR—47★3—
BEN MALDONADOOLRET
524TH YR——UNR—
JARIAN SHELBYOLRET
484TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SAC FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS57% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMEL HOWARDDLTRUE FR
523RD YR3259★3—
MILES BAILEYDLRET
524TH YR2950★3—
XAVIER WILLIAMSDLRET
524TH YR24—UNR—
FATA PULOKALBRET
523RD YR35—UNR—
ALEX ROCHALBRET
524TH YR209★2—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOHIO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
41OF 138
TAL
35
PERF
58
RET
50
DL
93OF 138
DL RET
28
LB
119OF 138
LB RET
65
FRONT-7SACRAMENTO STATE DEFENSE
OHIO RUNNING BACKSn=550% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DUNCAN BRUNERBRET
493RD YR7829★3-30
VICTOR ROSARBPORTAL · UCONN
464TH YR9638★3-22
IRVING BROWNRBRET
411ST YR534★3—
MIKE TAYLOR JR.RBRET
411ST YR558★3—
JAMES KELLYRBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SAC FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS55% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554428%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453365%7%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOHIO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
135OF 138
TAL
57
PERF
31
RET
19
DB
110OF 138
DB RET
13
SECONDARYSACRAMENTO STATE DEFENSE
OHIO PASS CATCHERSn=2281% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANDREW METZGERTETRUE FR
512ND YR347★3—
AJ MILLERTERET
502ND YR120★3—
EIAN PUGHWRRET
444TH YR5472★3-46
DOM DORWARTWRRET
442ND YR6553★3-18
JAKE FURTNEYTEPORTAL · ILLINOIS
402ND YR—62★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SAC SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM87% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BOOGSIE SILVERASPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
524TH YR422★3—
ELIAS MULLICANCBRET
524TH YR3617★3—
DIESEL GORDONSRET
523RD YR2964★3—
MALIKAI NICHOLSCBPORTAL · SAINT FRANCIS (PA)
522ND YR2245★3—
DIONTE THORNTONCBPORTAL · PORTLAND STATE
524TH YR4145★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
OHIO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SAC
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
47.0
47.9
— OFFENSE
55.6
55.4
— DEFENSE
38.4
40.3
SP+ OVERALL
-12.3
-21.7
FPI
-9.7
-24.9
ELO
1320
1324
TALENT
523
561
PRODUCTION
21
5
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−16
+42
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.00
0.06
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
OHIO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SAC
PASS RATE
43.1%
54.9%
PACE
27.7s
27.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
62.4%
57.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
53.5%
82.3%
PLAYS / GAME
65.0
65.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
4.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = OHIO, ORANGE = SAC) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE