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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›ECU @ MEM›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
EAST CAROLINA
MEMPHIS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
THU 19:30 ET|SIMMONS BANK LIBERTY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
84FPI
ECUAACEAST CAROLINA
0-2
40
57
67
14%
16
34
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
69FPI
MEMAACMEMPHIS
2-1
52
70
30
6%
18
48
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ECU40CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
53
PROE
52
TEMPO
16
EXPLOSIVE53p
53
PROE52p
52
TEMPO16p
16
MEM56CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
88
PROE
60
TEMPO
18
EXPLOSIVE88p
88
PROE60p
60
TEMPO18p
18
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ECURECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.2-2.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.2
EAST CAROLINA won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MEMRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.8-3.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.1
MEMPHIS won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEREAST CAROLINAMEMPHIS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Katin HouserPORTAL · ILLINOIS · 92% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChaston DittaPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB85%London MontgomeryPORTAL · FLORIDA · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarlon Gunn Jr.RB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONParker JenkinsPORTAL · LAMAR · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB78%Ja'Marley RiddlePORTAL · GEORGIA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTeagan WilkDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyMir BrownDB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE77%Anthony SmithDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDesirrio RilesPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONYannick SmithPORTAL · SMU · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL70%Darius BellOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJimarion McCrimonOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCooper TrnavskyOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL54%J.D. LampleyDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSamuel DankahDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZion WilsonDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB49%Dameon WilsonLB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyheem CraigLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBEmory Williams · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMITrey Burke · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBAshton Gray · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASMeliq McGowan · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBChristian Peterson · PORTAL ★3 · UCFMyles Pollard · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHISDavid Coleman Jr. · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TERay Ray Joseph · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIJeremiah Melvin · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FORESTDawson Quarterman · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBrandon Best · PORTAL ★3 · KENNESAW STATEJa'Vaughn Hargett · SIGNEE ★3Joshua Battle · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DLTerande Spencer · SIGNEE ★3Ethan Wilson · SIGNEE ★3Kelton Smith · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBCrews Law · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHISChad Fairchild · SIGNEE ★3Zyon Ratchford · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · EAST CAROLINA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
26.517 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
10.15 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
36.341 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB575770052 OF 5 GRADED
RB5050781573 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE64644819239 OF 23 GRADED
OL61613326237 OF 23 GRADED
DL6464461001711 OF 17 GRADED
LB48483966126 OF 12 GRADED
DB585846362616 OF 26 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE40th40
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%17
RECRUITING CLASS#94 · 0/16 BC30
CLASS RANK TREND-21 · 3 CYCLES8
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 24 IN / 26 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MEMCHARLES HUFFFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3232
PACE
6363
PASS RATE
3232
EXPLOSIVENESS
4848
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1515
HAVOC
9090
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ECUBLAKE HARRELL2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6363
PACE
100100
PASS RATE
2727
EXPLOSIVENESS
88
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9090
HAVOC
9393
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESECU OFFENSEMEM OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBEAST CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
57OF 138
TAL
70
PERF
57
RET
0
NATIONAL
90OF 136
RET
3
FULL DEFENSEMEMPHIS DEFENSE
ECU QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EMORY WILLIAMSQBPORTAL · MIAMI
484TH YR4945★3-10
MITCH GRIFFISQBPORTAL · TEXAS TECH
454TH YR7076★3+8
COLE HODGEQBRET
352ND YR—53★3—
TREY BURKEQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—39★3—
DAULTON PHALINESQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MEM DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS85% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5514%10%
LINEBACKERSLB
560%0%
SECONDARYDB
4420%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLEAST CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
38OF 138
TAL
33
PERF
61
RET
26
DL
49OF 138
DL RET
14
LB
37OF 138
LB RET
0
FRONT-7MEMPHIS DEFENSE
ECU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2374% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRYCE WEAVEROLRET
724TH YR—28★3+8 2025
BRANDON BESTOLPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE
634TH YR—45★3+40 2025
KENDALL WALTONOLRET
522ND YR—38★3—
JEREMIAH WILLIAMSOLRET
513RD YR——UNR—
ETHAN KRAMEROLPORTAL · NORTHERN ARIZONA
474TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MEM FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS91% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MIKE MONTGOMERYLBTRUE FR
714TH YR8345★3+1
J'MOND TAPPDLPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
694TH YR8645★3+45
TAYLOR BURTONDLRET
594TH YR63—UNR+3
ZACH RUFFINLBPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
532ND YR4069★4—
ELIJAH KINSLERDLPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
522ND YR4258★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBEAST CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
76OF 138
TAL
78
PERF
50
RET
15
DL
49OF 138
DL RET
14
LB
37OF 138
LB RET
0
FRONT-7MEMPHIS DEFENSE
ECU RUNNING BACKSn=785% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ASHTON GRAYRBPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
673RD YR5378★3+22
MICHAEL ALLENRBPORTAL · MARSHALL
504TH YR8588★4+12
TJ ENGLEMAN JR.RBRET
483RD YR5155★3-4
DEJUAN LACYRBRET
503RD YR——UNR+12 2025
MELIQ MCGOWANRBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MEM FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS92% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555514%10%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.45560%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEEAST CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
22OF 138
TAL
48
PERF
64
RET
19
DB
112OF 138
DB RET
20
SECONDARYMEMPHIS DEFENSE
ECU PASS CATCHERSn=2381% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RAY RAY JOSEPH JR.WRTRUE FR
484TH YR4464★3-6
JASON DICKERSONWRRET
483RD YR——UNR—
STEPHEN COLLIERTERET
472ND YR—43★3—
TYLER JOHNSONWRRET
444TH YR4528★3-34
JEREMIAH MELVINWRPORTAL · WAKE FOREST
443RD YR3764★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MEM SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM80% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
IAN FOSTERSPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
513RD YR9578★3+22
ELLIS ELLIS JR.CBPORTAL · AUSTIN PEAY
504TH YR2264★3—
DYLAN KINGSPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
494TH YR5627★3+15
CHAUNCEY LOGAN JR.CBRET
464TH YR9945★3-33
DYLAN SMITHSPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
453RD YR9428★3-31
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ECU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MEM
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
38.4
53.5
— OFFENSE
40.3
57.4
— DEFENSE
36.5
49.5
SP+ OVERALL
-6.7
0.4
FPI
-4.2
-0.2
ELO
1462
1526
TALENT
624
670
PRODUCTION
42
52
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−3
−4
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.03
0.10
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ECU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MEM
OFF EFFICIENCY
78
72
DEF EFFICIENCY
83
56
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
14
76
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
50
32
FINISHING DRIVES
72
84
FIELD POSITION
17
44
TURNOVER MARGIN
80
82
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ECU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MEM
PASS RATE
53.6%
39.5%
PACE
32.1s
31.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
56.4%
67.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
76.5%
58.3%
PLAYS / GAME
56.0
57.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
2.7%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ECU, ORANGE = MEM) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE