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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›NCSU @ STAN›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NC STATE
STANFORD
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
FRI 22:30 ET|STANFORD STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP13|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
58FPI
NCSUACCNC STATE
1-1
77
89
43
60%
28
53
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
86FPI
STANACCSTANFORD
1-1
64
23
68
21%
65
77
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
NCSU49CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
47
PROE
73
TEMPO
28
EXPLOSIVE47p
47
PROE73p
73
TEMPO28p
28
STAN52CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
33
PROE
58
TEMPO
65
EXPLOSIVE33p
33
PROE58p
58
TEMPO65p
65
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
NCSURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.3
NC STATE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
STANRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs3.1-8.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-10.3
STANFORD won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNC STATESTANFORD2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB90%Caden FordhamLB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCian SloneLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTra ThomasLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE82%Justin JolyDRAFTED · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoah RogersWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerrell AndersonWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL78%Sabastian HarshDE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKenny Soares Jr.PORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon ClevelandDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB61%Hollywood SmothersPORTAL · TEXAS · 57% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL54%Jalen GrantOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacarrius PeakOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony Carter Jr.G · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB28%Devon MarshallCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamel JohnsonCB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB2%Lex ThomasPORTAL · WESTERN CAROLINA · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBRaul Aguirre Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIPopo Aguirre · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIZiggy Moore · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEHunter Provience · PORTAL ★3 · MONTANA STATEJoshisa Trader · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIAmiri Acker · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLDamaad Lewis · SIGNEE ★3Elijah Satchell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBDylan McCoy · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBrody Smith · SIGNEE ★3Tre Aiken · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBKing Mack · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEOndre Evans · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIAJordyn Best · SIGNEE ★35 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NC STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
37.843 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
34.443 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
39.749 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB64648510052 OF 5 GRADED
RB6262745994 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE555564412611 OF 26 GRADED
OL67676766239 OF 23 GRADED
DL47476970106 OF 10 GRADED
LB46466748248 OF 24 GRADED
DB50507567239 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE77th77
BLUE-CHIP RATIO27%78
RECRUITING CLASS#49 · 2/26 BC64
CLASS RANK TREND-22 · 3 CYCLES6
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-6 · 20 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
STANTAVITA PRITCHARDFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NCSUDAVE DOEREN11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6767
PACE
3434
PASS RATE
6363
EXPLOSIVENESS
6666
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1616
HAVOC
8686
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNCSU OFFENSESTAN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNC STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
31OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
64
RET
100
NATIONAL
55OF 136
RET
30
FULL DEFENSESTANFORD DEFENSE
NCSU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CJ BAILEYQBRET
603RD YR9085★4+23
WILL WILSONQBRET
522ND YR1879★3—
TAD HUDSONQBPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA
424TH YR—45★3-40 2025
HUDSON WILHARMQBRET
303RD YR——UNR—
PARKER THOMPSONQBTRUE FR
303RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
STAN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS9% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
49100%8%
LINEBACKERSLB
40100%14%
SECONDARYDB
5083%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNC STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
21OF 138
TAL
67
PERF
67
RET
66
DL
75OF 138
DL RET
100
LB
99OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7STANFORD DEFENSE
NCSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2334% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KATRON EVANSOLPORTAL · MARSHALL
374TH YR—64★3—
JOSIAH VICTOROLRET
—2ND YR—55★3—
OMARIAN ABRAHAMOLRET
—2ND YR—59★3—
TEAGUE ANDERSENOLRET
654TH YR9728★3-13
JIMARION MCCRIMONOLPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
594TH YR9164★3+5
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
STAN FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS0% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MATT ROSELBRET
794TH YR9246★3+0
BRADEN MARCEAU-OLAYINKADLRET
553RD YR7654★3+1
OMAR STAPLESDLRET
543RD YR6659★3+10
CONNOR BACHHUBERDLRET
522ND YR3952★3—
KOLE BRIEHLERDTRET
521ST YR3877★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNC STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
25OF 138
TAL
74
PERF
62
RET
59
DL
75OF 138
DL RET
100
LB
99OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7STANFORD DEFENSE
NCSU RUNNING BACKSn=941% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAYDEN SCOTTRBRET
603RD YR6881★3+2
DARIUS JOHNSONRBRET
494TH YR99★2—
DAVION GAUSERBPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
483RD YR7364★3-14
JONATHAN PAYLORRBRET
473RD YR—96★4—
DEANDRE DESINORRBRET
472ND YR182★3—
SHOW ALL 9
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
STAN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS0% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.5549100%8%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4540100%14%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENC STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
47OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
55
RET
41
DB
75OF 138
DB RET
83
SECONDARYSTANFORD DEFENSE
NCSU PASS CATCHERSn=2659% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
VICTOR SNOWWRPORTAL · BUFFALO
584TH YR9864★3+16
DAVION DOZIERWRPORTAL · APP STATE
574TH YR7545★3+31
VANDER PLOOGTEPORTAL · OREGON
522ND YR1364★3—
PRESTON DOUGLASTERET
512ND YR2765★3—
HUNTER PROVIENCETEPORTAL · MONTANA STATE
494TH YR1389★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
STAN SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM17% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SCOTTY EDWARDSSRET
664TH YR9932★3+9
CHARLIE ECKHARDTSRET
562ND YR6534★3+34
LASIAH JACKSONDBTRUE FR
521ST YR2492★4—
SAM NEELY IIICBRET
522ND YR3345★3—
DARRIUS DAVISSRET
523RD YR7160★3-5
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NCSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
STAN
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
42.3
46.7
— OFFENSE
47.4
52.8
— DEFENSE
37.2
40.7
SP+ OVERALL
8.0
-3.9
FPI
2.4
-4.9
ELO
1509
1354
TALENT
757
706
PRODUCTION
69
42
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+6
+27
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.27
0.12
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NCSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
STAN
OFF EFFICIENCY
51
10
DEF EFFICIENCY
65
39
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
94
39
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
8
25
FINISHING DRIVES
96
19
FIELD POSITION
77
99
TURNOVER MARGIN
23
39
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NCSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
STAN
PASS RATE
46.7%
56.6%
PACE
30.0s
26.5s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
62.1%
52.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
69.7%
75.0%
PLAYS / GAME
60.0
68.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.2%
2.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NCSU, ORANGE = STAN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE