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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›ARMY @ TLSA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
ARMY
TULSA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
FRI 20:30 ET|CHAPMAN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP38|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
78FPI
ARMYAACARMY
1-1
1
20
30
80%
49
41
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
79FPI
TLSAAACTULSA
2-0
39
16
37
41%
46
29
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ARMY20CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
9
PROE
0
TEMPO
49
EXPLOSIVE9p
9
PROE0p
0
TEMPO49p
49
TLSA47CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
65
PROE
29
TEMPO
46
EXPLOSIVE65p
65
PROE29p
29
TEMPO46p
46
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ARMYRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.1-5.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.3
ARMY won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TLSARECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.8
TULSA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARMYTULSA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB92%Kalib FortnerLB · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndon ThomasLB · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric FordLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB68%Casey LarkinS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCollin MattesonS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGavin ShieldsS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB57%Hayden ReedRB · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBriggs BartoshRB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL38%Jack LatoreDL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob TuiotiDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeshontez GrayDL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL25%Will JeffcoatOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB25%Dewayne ColemanQB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE20%Noah ShortWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBPhillip Goodrich · SIGNEE ★3Caleb Fowler · SIGNEEPARTIAL
DBLuke Langford · SIGNEEBrooks Dupree · SIGNEEGerrit Gray · SIGNEE1 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBKaio Oliveira · SIGNEEPARTIAL
DLDominic Basrawala · SIGNEE ★3Bruce Roberts · SIGNEEHans Pederson · SIGNEE1 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLMaverick Diede · SIGNEE ★3Declan Nason · SIGNEEJaxon Newton · SIGNEE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBSkylar Hamilton · SIGNEEMatthew O'Grady · SIGNEECJ Gray · SIGNEEINTACT
WR/TEJack VanProoyen · SIGNEEMason Mixon · SIGNEEPARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARMY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
43.662 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
64.694 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
33.431 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB404066973 OF 7 GRADED
RB4343990134 OF 13 GRADED
WR/TE42421436395 OF 39 GRADED
OL636313034CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL212122972310 OF 23 GRADED
LB3131357269 OF 26 GRADED
DB484853793512 OF 35 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE1st1
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#181 · 0/50 BC0
CLASS RANK TREND-29 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 0 IN / 2 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TLSATRE LAMB2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3333
PACE
100100
PASS RATE
3838
EXPLOSIVENESS
5151
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9898
HAVOC
44
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ARMYJEFF MONKEN11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
00
PACE
2020
PASS RATE
00
EXPLOSIVENESS
11
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
100100
HAVOC
66
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESARMY OFFENSETLSA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARMY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
109OF 138
TAL
6
PERF
40
RET
69
NATIONAL
91OF 136
RET
38
FULL DEFENSETULSA DEFENSE
ARMY QUARTERBACKSn=731% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CALE HELLUMSQBRET
574TH YR48—UNR+18
BRYSON LUTERQBRET
412ND YR—6★2—
ETHAN WASHINGTONQBRET
362ND YR——UNR—
TANNER WILSONQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—17★3—
ANDREW HEIDELQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—22★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TLSA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS39% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4534%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
3781%9%
SECONDARYDB
4168%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARMY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
31OF 138
TAL
13
PERF
63
RET
0
DL
89OF 138
DL RET
34
LB
108OF 138
LB RET
81
FRONT-7TULSA DEFENSE
ARMY OFFENSIVE LINEn=34100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
HENRY APPLETONOLRET
804TH YR——UNR-11 2025
BRADY SMALLOLRET
754TH YR——UNR+29 2025
PAOLO GENNARELLIOLRET
744TH YR——UNR+35 2025
KYLE KLOSKAOLRET
504TH YR—13★2—
TEDDY WILLIAMSOLRET
504TH YR—13★2-53 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TLSA FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS47% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KYRAN DUHONDLPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
573RD YR7885★3-17
AQUAVIOUS DUNBARDLRET
522ND YR3157★3—
TYLER RICHDLRET
513RD YR46—UNR—
THOMAS DAVISDLPORTAL · APP STATE
504TH YR8964★3+44
JAYLEN GEORGEDLTRUE FR
504TH YR3828★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARMY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
113OF 138
TAL
9
PERF
43
RET
90
DL
89OF 138
DL RET
34
LB
108OF 138
LB RET
81
FRONT-7TULSA DEFENSE
ARMY RUNNING BACKSn=1310% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GODSPOWER NWAWUIHERBRET
512ND YR34—UNR+35
JAKE RENDINARBRET
494TH YR559★2-40 2025
CARSON SMITHRBRET
484TH YR549★2-33 2025
DEMANI STEWARTRBRET
352ND YR——UNR—
TIM KLOSKARBRET
323RD YR—13★2—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TLSA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS45% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554534%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453781%9%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARMY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
107OF 138
TAL
14
PERF
42
RET
36
DB
120OF 138
DB RET
68
SECONDARYTULSA DEFENSE
ARMY PASS CATCHERSn=3964% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARKER POLOSKEYTERET
764TH YR——UNR-40 2025
BRADY ANDERSONWRRET
583RD YR5026★3+38
DAVID CLERKWRRET
524TH YR11—UNR—
BRADY MOTTWRRET
524TH YR11—UNR—
SAMARI HOWARDWRRET
504TH YR54—UNR-4
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TLSA SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM32% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZACH WILLIAMSSRET
743RD YR9164★3+26
TYSON WILLIAMSSTRUE FR
524TH YR18—UNR—
TY WILLIAMSDBRET
524TH YR399★3—
JD DREWCBRET
504TH YR10039★3-28
ZANE WOODHAMDBRET
504TH YR44—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ARMY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TLSA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
47.4
48.9
— OFFENSE
55.7
53.7
— DEFENSE
39.0
44.2
SP+ OVERALL
1.1
-4.0
FPI
-2.8
-3.4
ELO
1530
1271
TALENT
304
623
PRODUCTION
42
34
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−41
−4
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.00
0.09
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ARMY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TLSA
OFF EFFICIENCY
48
31
DEF EFFICIENCY
14
38
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
8
61
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
96
68
FINISHING DRIVES
38
11
FIELD POSITION
30
85
TURNOVER MARGIN
69
27
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ARMY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TLSA
PASS RATE
18.3%
46.9%
PACE
27.5s
27.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
84.9%
53.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
32.0%
47.9%
PLAYS / GAME
65.5
65.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.8%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ARMY, ORANGE = TLSA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE