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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›DUKE @ UVA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
DUKE
VIRGINIA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
FRI 19:00 ET|SCOTT STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
35FPI
DUKEACCDUKE
3-0
50
86
15
17%
59
62
0.0
—
—
HOME
#25AP
34FPI
UVAACCVIRGINIA
2-1
62
50
73
10%
56
54
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
DUKE70CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
68
PROE
82
TEMPO
59
EXPLOSIVE68p
68
PROE82p
82
TEMPO59p
59
UVA49CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
26
PROE
67
TEMPO
56
EXPLOSIVE26p
26
PROE67p
67
TEMPO56p
56
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
DUKERECORD MATCHES
8-5ACTUALvs7.8-5.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.3
DUKE won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UVARECORD MATCHES
10-3ACTUALvs9.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+11.6
VIRGINIA won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERDUKEVIRGINIA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Darian MensahPORTAL · MIAMI · 99% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE68%Cooper BarkatePORTAL · MIAMI · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSahmir HagansWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQue'Sean BrownPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL64%Wesley WilliamsDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAaron HallDT · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONVincent Anthony Jr.DE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL57%Justin PickettOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBruno FinaOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrian Parker IIDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB48%Chandler RiversDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb WeaverS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMa'Khi JonesPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB47%Jaiden FrancoisLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTre FreemanLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB47%Anderson CastleRB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaquez MooreRB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBWalker Eget · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATEAri Patu · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH ALABAMATerry Walker III · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEJaven Nicholas · PORTAL ★3 · CHARLOTTEJared Richardson · PORTAL ★3 · PENNSYLVANIAJonah Burton · PORTAL ★3 · IDAHO STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLObinna Umeh · SIGNEE ★4Chadwicke Cannon Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Ayden Cain · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBraden Miller · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIASean Stover · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBDylan Flowers · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN KENTUCKYChe Ojarikre · PORTAL ★3 · STANFORDKyon Loud · PORTAL ★3 · MONTANA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBColsen Gatten · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBWilhelm Daal II · PORTAL ★3 · YALECJ Givers · SIGNEE ★3Jayvian Tanelus · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · DUKE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
46.970 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
47.970 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
46.362 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB595965062 OF 6 GRADED
RB5656727872 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE5151632020CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL565658017CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL666669901710 OF 17 GRADED
LB535369100115 OF 11 GRADED
DB48486434177 OF 17 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE50th50
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%40
RECRUITING CLASS#71 · 2/15 BC47
CLASS RANK TREND-10 · 3 CYCLES30
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-4 · 19 IN / 17 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UVATONY ELLIOTT5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6868
PACE
7676
PASS RATE
6969
EXPLOSIVENESS
2020
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3535
HAVOC
4545
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
DUKEMANNY DIAZ3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8787
PACE
4343
PASS RATE
8383
EXPLOSIVENESS
7676
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6464
HAVOC
9595
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESDUKE OFFENSEUVA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBDUKE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
47OF 138
TAL
65
PERF
59
RET
0
NATIONAL
21OF 136
RET
11
FULL DEFENSEVIRGINIA DEFENSE
DUKE QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WALKER EGETQBPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE
624TH YR8964★30
DAN MAHANQBRET
401ST YR275★3—
ARI PATUQBPORTAL · NORTH ALABAMA
504TH YR—45★3-37 2023
BLAINE HIPAQBPORTAL · PRINCETON
374TH YR—45★3—
TERRY WALKER IIIQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—81★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS53% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6349%10%
LINEBACKERSLB
4694%0%
SECONDARYDB
5231%9%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLDUKE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
50OF 138
TAL
58
PERF
56
RET
0
DL
24OF 138
DL RET
49
LB
79OF 138
LB RET
94
FRONT-7VIRGINIA DEFENSE
DUKE OFFENSIVE LINEn=17100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NICK DEL GRANDEOLPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA
824TH YR—45★3-25 2025
GEMYEL ALLENOLRET
522ND YR—73★3—
MATT CRAYCRAFTOLRET
504TH YR—56★3+36 2025
CALEB DORRISOLRET
503RD YR—45★3—
JORDAN LARSENOLRET
494TH YR—45★3+4 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS33% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
FISHER CAMACDERET
854TH YR9364★3+11
KAM ROBINSONLBRET
704TH YR—83★3-3 2025
JASON HAMMONDDTRET
664TH YR7956★3-8
ANTHONY BRITTONDTRET
614TH YR8248★3-12
NNANNA ANYANWUDEPORTAL · UTSA
614TH YR5978★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBDUKE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
50OF 138
TAL
72
PERF
56
RET
78
DL
24OF 138
DL RET
49
LB
79OF 138
LB RET
94
FRONT-7VIRGINIA DEFENSE
DUKE RUNNING BACKSn=722% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NATE SHEPPARDRBRET
752ND YR8985★4+16
CJ CAMPBELL JR.RBPORTAL · RUTGERS
634TH YR8728★3+27
JAYVIAN TANELUSRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—69★3—
WILHELM DAAL IIRBPORTAL · YALE
374TH YR—64★3—
CJ GIVERSRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—82★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS31% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556349%10%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454694%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEDUKE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
68OF 138
TAL
63
PERF
51
RET
20
DB
63OF 138
DB RET
31
SECONDARYVIRGINIA DEFENSE
DUKE PASS CATCHERSn=2080% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JEREMIAH HASLEYTERET
804TH YR8555★3+13
JAVEN NICHOLASWRPORTAL · CHARLOTTE
654TH YR—78★3+22 2025
TONY BOGGSTERET
523RD YR—56★3—
JONAH BURTONWRPORTAL · IDAHO STATE
504TH YR4564★3+6
NATE KURISKYTEPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
484TH YR—45★3-2 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM69% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAYLEN JONESSPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE
774TH YR7964★3-3
JACOBIE HENDERSONCBPORTAL · RUTGERS
674TH YR9964★3-18
JALEN MCNAIRSPORTAL · BUFFALO
584TH YR9745★3+20
OMILLIO AGARDCBPORTAL · WISCONSIN
583RD YR6164★3-32
CHRISTIAN ELLISSPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH
564TH YR9964★3-6
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
DUKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UVA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
57.9
43.1
— OFFENSE
61.6
48.2
— DEFENSE
54.1
38.0
SP+ OVERALL
6.9
12.7
FPI
9.1
9.2
ELO
1656
1612
TALENT
668
700
PRODUCTION
68
74
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−15
−18
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.09
0.13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
DUKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UVA
OFF EFFICIENCY
78
41
DEF EFFICIENCY
31
87
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
81
67
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
16
69
FINISHING DRIVES
83
51
FIELD POSITION
15
22
TURNOVER MARGIN
87
90
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
DUKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UVA
PASS RATE
36.0%
35.9%
PACE
27.0s
27.3s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
69.3%
67.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
47.6%
48.8%
PLAYS / GAME
66.7
66.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
2.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = DUKE, ORANGE = UVA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE