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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›SAC @ BALL›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
SACRAMENTO STATE
BALL STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|SCHEUMANN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
138FPI
SACMACSACRAMENTO STATE
1-2
18
0
0
0%
46
21
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
131FPI
BALLMACBALL STATE
1-1
18
1
24
6%
37
1
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
SAC34CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
22
TEMPO
46
EXPLOSIVE22p
22
TEMPO46p
46
BALL46CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
92
PROE
9
TEMPO
37
EXPLOSIVE92p
92
PROE9p
9
TEMPO37p
37
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
BALLRECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs2.2-9.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-14.0
BALL STATE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSACRAMENTO STATEBALL STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Jamar MaloneQB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB0%Damian Henderson IIPORTAL · COLORADO · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE0%Bear TenneyTE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%Jose SotoOL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL0%Jayland McGlothenPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Josh CashiolaPORTAL · UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB0%Koa AkuiPORTAL · RICE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBCarson Conklin · PORTAL ★3 · FRESNO STATEJaylen Patterson · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO STATEINTACT
RBCincere Rhaney · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATEDavion Godley · PORTAL ★3 · WEBER STATEINTACT
WR/TEMatthew Coleman · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATEEllijah Washington · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATEKamarie Smith · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLGarrison Blank · PORTAL ★3 · UCLAINTACT
DLNick Dimitris · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA A&MJamel Howard Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINDevyn Blake · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBJiah Walls · SIGNEE ★3Leki Holani · SIGNEE ★3Iosefa Lealofi · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBNoah King · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOAmari Wallace · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIQualyn McQueen · PORTAL ★3 · NEBRASKA-KEARNEYINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SACRAMENTO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
0.00 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB444445053 OF 5 GRADED
RB626294595 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE58583535229 OF 22 GRADED
OL6464140209 OF 20 GRADED
DL444438281813 OF 18 GRADED
LB333317651511 OF 15 GRADED
DB444438132117 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE18th18
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%29
RECRUITING CLASS#125 · 0/20 BC7
CLASS RANK TREND+6 · 3 CYCLES62
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 25 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUS——
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BALLMIKE UREMOVICH2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
66
PACE
44
PASS RATE
1818
EXPLOSIVENESS
8585
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
99
HAVOC
1212
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SACALONZO CARTERFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSAC OFFENSEBALL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSACRAMENTO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
99OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
44
RET
0
NATIONAL
109OF 136
RET
26
FULL DEFENSEBALL STATE DEFENSE
SAC QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JACKSON SHARMANQBTRUE FR
503RD YR29—UNR+33
CARSON CONKLINQBPORTAL · FRESNO STATE
433RD YR5445★3-33
JAYLEN PATTERSONQBPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE
411ST YR—17★3—
BRIAN SALAZARQBTRUE FR
312ND YR2—UNR—
LIAM MEEKERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BALL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS66% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4245%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
4228%0%
SECONDARYDB
3931%4%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSACRAMENTO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
29OF 138
TAL
14
PERF
64
RET
0
DL
98OF 138
DL RET
45
LB
90OF 138
LB RET
28
FRONT-7BALL STATE DEFENSE
SAC OFFENSIVE LINEn=20100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SHONTRAIL KEYOLTRUE FR
524TH YR3436★3—
BRANDON SOUSAOLRET
514TH YR419★2—
BRYSON SUMMERSOLRET
474TH YR459★3—
JEREMIAH STALLWORTHOLRET
442ND YR3934★3—
VAE SOIFUAOLPORTAL · WEBER STATE
434TH YR419★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BALL FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS62% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KENDRICK GILBERTDTPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
523RD YR3745★3—
KEILAN SMITHDTPORTAL · CINCINNATI
523RD YR2028★3—
LUCAS SZYMBORSKILBRET
521ST YR1440★3—
KALEB STEWARTLBTRUE FR
522ND YR1137★3—
MAVERICK GRACIODEPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
503RD YR3728★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSACRAMENTO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
26OF 138
TAL
9
PERF
62
RET
45
DL
98OF 138
DL RET
45
LB
90OF 138
LB RET
28
FRONT-7BALL STATE DEFENSE
SAC RUNNING BACKSn=955% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ISAIAH ENERBTRUE FR
521ST YR26—UNR+27
DANIEL SWINNEYRBTRUE FR
523RD YR20—UNR—
CINCERE RHANEYRBPORTAL · SAN DIEGO STATE
512ND YR2445★3+24
JAMAR CURTISRBRET
514TH YR302★3-33
ELIAS BROWNRBRET
474TH YR11—UNR—
SHOW ALL 9
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BALL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS63% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554245%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454228%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESACRAMENTO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
40OF 138
TAL
35
PERF
58
RET
35
DB
128OF 138
DB RET
31
SECONDARYBALL STATE DEFENSE
SAC PASS CATCHERSn=2265% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELIJAH HUDDLETERET
522ND YR1834★3—
ONTERRIO SMITH JR.WRRET
493RD YR3238★3-54
RAIDEN BROWNWRPORTAL · IDAHO STATE
492ND YR34—★3—
KENYON SHABAZZWRTRUE FR
483RD YR13—UNR—
JORDAN WILLIAMSTERET
484TH YR5628★3+31
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BALL SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM69% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTHONY PINNACEDBTRUE FR
524TH YR2064★3—
KAMRON CHAMBLEDBRET
521ST YR6—UNR—
STONE PERKINSDBTRUE FR
521ST YR258★3—
CHRIS JACKSONDBPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
524TH YR3578★3—
QUENTAVIUS SCANDRETTDBTRUE FR
484TH YR9928★3+35
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SAC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BALL
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
47.9
45.4
— OFFENSE
55.4
59.8
— DEFENSE
40.3
31.0
SP+ OVERALL
-21.7
-21.3
FPI
-24.9
-17.8
ELO
1324
1076
TALENT
561
564
PRODUCTION
5
4
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+42
−2
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.06
0.03
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SAC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BALL
PASS RATE
54.9%
57.9%
PACE
27.7s
28.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
57.9%
42.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
82.3%
58.7%
PLAYS / GAME
65.0
63.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.1%
5.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SAC, ORANGE = BALL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE