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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›EMU @ OHIO›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
EASTERN MICHIGAN
OHIO
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|PEDEN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP19|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
132FPI
EMUMACEASTERN MICHIGAN
1-3
26
37
1
72%
25
13
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
112FPI
OHIOMACOHIO
1-2
7
53
12
63%
32
18
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
EMU29CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
11
PROE
50
TEMPO
25
EXPLOSIVE11p
11
PROE50p
50
TEMPO25p
25
OHIO31CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
48
PROE
13
TEMPO
32
EXPLOSIVE48p
48
PROE13p
13
TEMPO32p
32
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
EMURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.7
EASTERN MICHIGAN won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
OHIORECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.8
OHIO won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEREASTERN MICHIGANOHIO2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB93%Dontae McMillanRB · 60% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTavierre DunlapRB · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL70%Everett SmallOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOwen SnivelyOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMickey RewolinskiOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL43%Donovan GreenDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyrell MartinDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSterling MilesPORTAL · UTEP · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE37%Porter RooksWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamarien WheelerWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerry Lockett Jr.WR · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB34%Andrew MarshallLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarco PatiernoPORTAL · WESTERN CAROLINA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB34%Joshua ScottPORTAL · NEVADA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyrelle DeenerDB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBBraydon Bennett · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA TECHNazir Jones-Davis · SIGNEE ★3Decorie Johnson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLTyler Brumfield · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATECole Dellinger · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEElijha Payne · PORTAL ★3 · DELAWARE STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLRJ Alphonse · SIGNEE ★3Kijon Braxton · SIGNEE ★3Brandon Simmons Jr. · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TECarl Jean-Bart · SIGNEE ★3Nathan Piggott · SIGNEE ★3Shawn Fishwick · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DBFa'Rel Carter · SIGNEE ★3Horace Glenn III · SIGNEE ★3Aaron Kearse · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · EASTERN MICHIGAN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
55.990 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
44.763 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
62.394 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB51511710051 OF 5 GRADED
RB5454493173 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE40405993239 OF 23 GRADED
OL424230152110 OF 21 GRADED
DL272742772214 OF 22 GRADED
LB29291394114 OF 11 GRADED
DB39395781209 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE26th26
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#106 · 0/30 BC21
CLASS RANK TREND-13 · 3 CYCLES24
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 11 IN / 26 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
OHIOJOHN HAUSERFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
EMUCHRIS CREIGHTON11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5454
PACE
6363
PASS RATE
5757
EXPLOSIVENESS
1111
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2727
HAVOC
2020
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESEMU OFFENSEOHIO OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBEASTERN MICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
81OF 138
TAL
17
PERF
51
RET
100
NATIONAL
103OF 136
RET
26
FULL DEFENSEOHIO DEFENSE
EMU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NOAH KIMQBRET
484TH YR8717★3-25
JACE STUCKEYQBRET
353RD YR—42★3—
BROGAN MCCAUGHEYQBPORTAL · YALE
374TH YR—17★3—
NICK KINSEYQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—38★3—
BRYCE BUTTONQBRET
352ND YR—40★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OHIO DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS33% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3867%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
4088%0%
SECONDARYDB
3061%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLEASTERN MICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
102OF 138
TAL
30
PERF
42
RET
15
DL
113OF 138
DL RET
67
LB
100OF 138
LB RET
88
FRONT-7OHIO DEFENSE
EMU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2185% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
COLE POWELLOLRET
422ND YR723★3—
NICHOLAS GALLEGOSOLRET
544TH YR76—UNR+25
COLE DELLINGEROLPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
524TH YR4328★3—
TYLER MCMILLANOLPORTAL · ILLINOIS
524TH YR4328★3—
GUZZY KAYEDOLPORTAL · SAINT FRANCIS (PA)
493RD YR4317★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OHIO FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS25% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TYLER GILLISONDLPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
594TH YR4728★3—
CHARLIE CHRISTOPHERLBRET
562ND YR6621★3+21
MICHAEL MOLNARLBRET
554TH YR68—UNR-18
NATHAN HALEDTRET
544TH YR5514★2+24
JACK FRIESLBRET
524TH YR69—UNR+17
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBEASTERN MICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
53OF 138
TAL
49
PERF
54
RET
31
DL
113OF 138
DL RET
67
LB
100OF 138
LB RET
88
FRONT-7OHIO DEFENSE
EMU RUNNING BACKSn=769% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRAYDON BENNETTRBPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH
614TH YR9228★3+23
AMAREON BLUERBRET
542ND YR3659★3+30
JOEY MATTORDRBRET
494TH YR47—UNR+17
DECORIE JOHNSONRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—54★3—
MALACHI JAMESRBPORTAL · SYRACUSE
433RD YR—17★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OHIO FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS24% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553867%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454088%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEEASTERN MICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
112OF 138
TAL
59
PERF
40
RET
93
DB
137OF 138
DB RET
61
SECONDARYOHIO DEFENSE
EMU PASS CATCHERSn=237% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
HAROLD MACKWRRET
542ND YR6068★3+26
NICK DEVEREAUXWRRET
514TH YR80—UNR+14
TANNER LEMASTERTERET
504TH YR2554★3—
ANTONIO FLOYDWRRET
473RD YR—32★3—
QUINN FRACASSIWRTRUE FR
474TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OHIO SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM39% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JT HASKINSSRET
523RD YR3654★3—
RONALD JACKSON JR.CBRET
524TH YR3217★3—
KENDALL BANNISTERCBRET
493RD YR6431★3+32
DJ WALKERSRET
473RD YR9917★3-2
DARREN JAMES-HAMILTONDBTRUE FR
452ND YR1817★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
EMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OHIO
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
43.5
47.0
— OFFENSE
47.8
55.6
— DEFENSE
39.1
38.4
SP+ OVERALL
-15.6
-12.3
FPI
-19.3
-10.2
ELO
1188
1318
TALENT
581
523
PRODUCTION
12
21
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+5
−16
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.00
0.00
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
EMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OHIO
OFF EFFICIENCY
53
71
DEF EFFICIENCY
25
55
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
50
41
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
28
39
FINISHING DRIVES
60
47
FIELD POSITION
100
36
TURNOVER MARGIN
22
64
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
EMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OHIO
PASS RATE
57.6%
47.9%
PACE
29.6s
28.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
50.3%
57.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
74.4%
58.1%
PLAYS / GAME
60.8
62.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.1%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = EMU, ORANGE = OHIO) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE