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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›TA&M @ ALA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TEXAS A&M
ALABAMA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|BRYANT-DENNY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP2|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#10AP
8FPI
TA&MSECTEXAS A&M
2-0
96
92
96
73%
81
100
0.0
—
—
HOME
#12AP
7FPI
ALASECALABAMA
2-0
98
77
85
26%
75
92
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TA&M45CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
12
PROE
41
TEMPO
81
EXPLOSIVE12p
12
PROE41p
41
TEMPO81p
81
ALA64CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
22
PROE
94
TEMPO
75
EXPLOSIVE22p
22
PROE94p
94
TEMPO75p
75
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TA&MRECORD OVERSTATES
11-1ACTUALvs9.2-2.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+14.4
TEXAS A&M won 11 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ALARECORD MATCHES
10-3ACTUALvs10.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.8
ALABAMA won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTEXAS A&MALABAMA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL75%Chase BisontisDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDametrious CrownoverDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrey Zuhn IIIDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL67%Cashius HowellDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler OnyedimDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlbert RegisDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE55%Theo Melin OhrstromPORTAL · SMU · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKC ConcepcionDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNate BoerkircherDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB55%Taurean YorkLB · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONScooby WilliamsLB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB46%Le'Veon MossRB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEJ SmithRB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAmari DanielsRB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB36%Will Lee IIIDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyreek ChappellCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB5%Miles O'NeillPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLWilkin Formby · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMASam Roseborough · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DLAnto Saka · PORTAL ★4 · NORTHWESTERNBryce Perry-Wright · SIGNEE ★4Tristian Givens · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEIsaiah Horton · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMAAaron Gregory · SIGNEE ★4Jayden Warren · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBTamarion Watkins · SIGNEE ★4Qui Beck · SIGNEE ★4Tank King · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBKJ Edwards · SIGNEE ★4Carsyn Baker · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBRickey Gibson III · PORTAL ★4 · TENNESSEEBrandon Arrington · SIGNEE ★5Vic Singleton · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBHelaman Casuga · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TEXAS A&M
CARRIED COMPOSITE
47.372 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
44.964 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
48.969 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB59599010052 OF 5 GRADED
RB5858967274 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE646487582313 OF 23 GRADED
OL747480481713 OF 17 GRADED
DL757589462016 OF 20 GRADED
LB81818454126 OF 12 GRADED
DB606093702513 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE96th96
BLUE-CHIP RATIO76%99
RECRUITING CLASS#10 · 22/27 BC93
CLASS RANK TREND+9 · 3 CYCLES68
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 19 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ALAKALEN DEBOER3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9595
PACE
6767
PASS RATE
7979
EXPLOSIVENESS
5858
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7373
HAVOC
5858
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TA&MMIKE ELKO3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3535
PACE
4040
PASS RATE
2323
EXPLOSIVENESS
3535
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2929
HAVOC
9595
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTA&M OFFENSEALA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTEXAS A&M OFFENSE
NATIONAL
46OF 138
TAL
90
PERF
59
RET
100
NATIONAL
10OF 136
RET
28
FULL DEFENSEALABAMA DEFENSE
TA&M QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARCEL REEDQBRET
624TH YR8989★4+12
BRADY HARTQBRET
492ND YR2393★4—
HELAMAN CASUGAQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—90★4—
ELI MORCOSQBRET
352ND YR—59★3—
PAXTON LANDQBRET
303RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS27% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6446%60%
LINEBACKERSLB
6560%59%
SECONDARYDB
6890%52%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTEXAS A&M OFFENSE
NATIONAL
7OF 138
TAL
80
PERF
74
RET
48
DL
20OF 138
DL RET
46
LB
17OF 138
LB RET
60
FRONT-7ALABAMA DEFENSE
TA&M OFFENSIVE LINEn=1752% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARK NABOU JR.OLRET
704TH YR—81★3+26 2025
WILKIN FORMBYOLPORTAL · ALABAMA
554TH YR—98★4-5 2025
TYREE ADAMSOLPORTAL · LSU
554TH YR—78★3-4 2025
ROBERT BOURDONOLRET
543RD YR—86★4—
ASHTON FUNKOLRET
503RD YR—91★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS48% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
YHONZAE PIERRELBRET
704TH YR8299★5+10 2025
LONDON SIMMONSDLRET
702ND YR5783★3-36
DEVAN THOMPKINSDLPORTAL · USC
604TH YR8899★4-7
ISAIA FAGADLRET
553RD YR4783★3—
STEVE BOLO MBOUMOUADLRET
523RD YR2688★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTEXAS A&M OFFENSE
NATIONAL
37OF 138
TAL
96
PERF
58
RET
72
DL
20OF 138
DL RET
46
LB
17OF 138
LB RET
60
FRONT-7ALABAMA DEFENSE
TA&M RUNNING BACKSn=728% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RUEBEN OWENS IIRBRET
574TH YR9199★5-49 2023
KJ EDWARDSRBTRUE FR
521ST YR1498★4—
CARSYN BAKERRBTRUE FR
511ST YR1892★4—
JAMARION MORROWRBRET
452ND YR4988★4-42
TIGER RIDEN JR.RBRET
502ND YR—85★4+8 2025
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS47% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556446%60%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456560%59%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETEXAS A&M OFFENSE
NATIONAL
23OF 138
TAL
87
PERF
64
RET
58
DB
7OF 138
DB RET
90
SECONDARYALABAMA DEFENSE
TA&M PASS CATCHERSn=2342% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARIO CRAVERWRRET
833RD YR9097★4+27
ISAIAH HORTONWRPORTAL · ALABAMA
554TH YR97100★4+1
ASHTON BETHEL-ROMANWRRET
543RD YR7891★4+31
AARON GREGORYWRTRUE FR
521ST YR—97★4—
KELSHAUN JOHNSONWRRET
502ND YR2293★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM10% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRAY HUBBARDDBRET
914TH YR9588★4+24
ZABIEN BROWNDBRET
713RD YR9799★5+5
KEON SABBDBRET
594TH YR9997★4+7
DRE KIRKPATRICK JR.DBRET
523RD YR3873★3—
IVAN TAYLORDBRET
512ND YR3797★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TA&M
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
45.9
53.1
— OFFENSE
47.1
58.7
— DEFENSE
44.6
47.6
SP+ OVERALL
24.2
21.2
FPI
23.1
23.2
ELO
1890
1859
TALENT
933
974
PRODUCTION
94
91
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
0
+8
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.76
0.63
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TA&M
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
OFF EFFICIENCY
77
60
DEF EFFICIENCY
97
84
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
49
65
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
1
52
FINISHING DRIVES
83
78
FIELD POSITION
7
30
TURNOVER MARGIN
11
97
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TA&M
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
PASS RATE
46.2%
40.7%
PACE
25.2s
25.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
62.9%
66.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
71.0%
65.6%
PLAYS / GAME
71.5
70.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
5.6%
5.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TA&M, ORANGE = ALA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE