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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›LSU @ AUB›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
LSU
AUBURN
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 12:00 ET|JORDAN-HARE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#8AP
9FPI
LSUSECLSU
2-0
95
44
93
21%
99
93
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
23FPI
AUBSECAUBURN
2-0
88
67
90
14%
93
80
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
LSU85CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
64
PROE
90
TEMPO
99
EXPLOSIVE64p
64
PROE90p
90
TEMPO99p
99
AUB60CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
39
PROE
48
TEMPO
93
EXPLOSIVE39p
39
PROE48p
48
TEMPO93p
93
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
LSURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.5
LSU won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
AUBRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-6
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.1
AUBURN won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERLSUAUBURN2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Garrett NussmeierDRAFTED · 63% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael Van Buren Jr.PORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE83%Bauer SharpDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZavion ThomasDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBarion BrownDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL81%Patrick PaytonDE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJack PyburnDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBernard GoodenDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL69%Josh ThompsonOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCoen EcholsOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyree AdamsOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB53%Harold Perkins Jr.DRAFTED · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWest WeeksLB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB40%A.J. HaulcyDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMansoor DelaneDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB30%Ju'Juan JohnsonPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBSam Leavitt · PORTAL ★5 · ARIZONA STATEHusan Longstreet · PORTAL ★4 · USCREFILLED
WR/TEEugene Wilson III · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDAJayce Brown · PORTAL ★4 · KANSAS STATEWinston Watkins · PORTAL ★4 · OLE MISS4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLPrincewill Umanmielen · PORTAL ★5 · OLE MISSJordan Ross · PORTAL ★4 · TENNESSEEStephiylan Green · PORTAL ★4 · CLEMSON3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJordan Seaton · PORTAL ★5 · COLORADOAliou Bah · PORTAL ★4 · MARYLANDDevin Harper · PORTAL ★4 · OLE MISS1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBTJ Dottery · PORTAL ★4 · OLE MISSPARTIAL
DBTy Benefield · PORTAL ★4 · BOISE STATEFaheem Delane · PORTAL ★4 · OHIO STATEHavon Finney Jr. · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · LSU
CARRIED COMPOSITE
35.438 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
24.422 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
42.056 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB535392053 OF 5 GRADED
RB4747671974 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE666690282111 OF 21 GRADED
OL565690492010 OF 20 GRADED
DL656596251912 OF 19 GRADED
LB66669271116 OF 11 GRADED
DB72729374229 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE95th95
BLUE-CHIP RATIO70%98
RECRUITING CLASS#11 · 12/16 BC92
CLASS RANK TREND-4 · 3 CYCLES42
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+8 · 41 IN / 41 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
AUBALEX GOLESHFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4949
PACE
9595
PASS RATE
4141
EXPLOSIVENESS
8585
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8080
HAVOC
8888
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
LSULANE KIFFINFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4848
PACE
9797
PASS RATE
2020
EXPLOSIVENESS
8686
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8585
HAVOC
8989
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESLSU OFFENSEAUB OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBLSU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
72OF 138
TAL
92
PERF
53
RET
0
NATIONAL
7OF 136
RET
41
FULL DEFENSEAUBURN DEFENSE
LSU QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SAM LEAVITTQBPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
813RD YR87100★5-1
LANDEN CLARKQBPORTAL · ELON
522ND YR1764★3—
HUSAN LONGSTREETQBPORTAL · USC
521ST YR2697★4—
KADEN MARTINQBPORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE
354TH YR—50★3—
CAYDEN JONESQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AUB DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 47 PLAYERS21% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5367%53%
LINEBACKERSLB
74100%50%
SECONDARYDB
5278%40%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLLSU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
53OF 138
TAL
90
PERF
56
RET
49
DL
58OF 138
DL RET
67
LB
9OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7AUBURN DEFENSE
LSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2051% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JORDAN SEATONOTPORTAL · COLORADO
533RD YR—100★5-3 2025
BRAELIN MOOREOLRET
614TH YR—92★4+42 2025
ALIOU BAHOLPORTAL · MARYLAND
534TH YR—97★4+27 2025
DEVIN HARPEROTPORTAL · OLE MISS
522ND YR—97★4—
BRYSTEN MARTINEZOTTRUE FR
511ST YR—97★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AUB FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS20% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
XAVIER ATKINSLBRET
923RD YR8364★3-19
CODY SIGLERDLPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE
814TH YR7328★3+20
CHRIS MURRAYDLRET
624TH YR8962★3+24
DA'SHAWN WOMACKEDGEPORTAL · OLE MISS
604TH YR7197★4+33
WALTER MATHIS JR.DLPORTAL · LSU
552ND YR4795★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBLSU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
100OF 138
TAL
67
PERF
47
RET
19
DL
58OF 138
DL RET
67
LB
9OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7AUBURN DEFENSE
LSU RUNNING BACKSn=781% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
STACY GAGERBPORTAL · UCF
512ND YR3445★3+19
CADEN DURHAMRBRET
503RD YR9195★4-9
HARLEM BERRYRBRET
472ND YR6699★5—
DILIN JONESRBPORTAL · WISCONSIN
472ND YR6864★3-10
ROD GAINEY JR.RBPORTAL · CHARLOTTE
412ND YR—45★3-50 2025
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AUB FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS18% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555367%53%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4574100%50%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TELSU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
17OF 138
TAL
90
PERF
66
RET
28
DB
62OF 138
DB RET
78
SECONDARYAUBURN DEFENSE
LSU PASS CATCHERSn=2172% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JACKSON HARRISWRPORTAL · HAWAI'I
863RD YR8489★3+29
JAYCE BROWNWRPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
724TH YR9897★4+32
TREY'DEZ GREENTERET
663RD YR7999★4+22
WINSTON WATKINS JR.WRTRUE FR
592ND YR6195★4+14
EUGENE WILSON IIIWRPORTAL · FLORIDA
573RD YR9398★4+10
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AUB SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM22% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
FRED GASKIN IIISTRUE FR
843RD YR—45★3+20 2025
ERIC WINTERSSRET
692ND YR5796★4+16
ANQUON FEGANSSRET
672ND YR5397★4+45
SYLVESTER SMITH-REEDSRET
534TH YR8491★4-14
ANDRE JORDAN JR.CBPORTAL · UCLA
534TH YR9478★3-16
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
LSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AUB
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
60.6
45.1
— OFFENSE
64.9
52.9
— DEFENSE
56.2
37.2
SP+ OVERALL
24.1
11.7
FPI
22.6
14.2
ELO
1794
1678
TALENT
932
828
PRODUCTION
93
82
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+3
+7
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.70
0.38
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
LSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AUB
OFF EFFICIENCY
25
63
DEF EFFICIENCY
75
85
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
45
11
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
50
31
FINISHING DRIVES
13
39
FIELD POSITION
38
92
TURNOVER MARGIN
92
86
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
LSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AUB
PASS RATE
44.0%
46.1%
PACE
20.6s
23.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
61.4%
59.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
58.3%
59.1%
PLAYS / GAME
87.5
77.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.6%
3.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = LSU, ORANGE = AUB) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE