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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›VAN @ UK›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
VANDERBILT
KENTUCKY
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|KROGER FIELDCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP14|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
39FPI
VANSECVANDERBILT
2-0
70
100
44
35%
40
97
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
51FPI
UKSECKENTUCKY
1-1
84
65
76
19%
24
98
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
VAN45CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
15
PROE
80
TEMPO
40
EXPLOSIVE15p
15
PROE80p
80
TEMPO40p
40
UK28CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
23
PROE
36
TEMPO
24
EXPLOSIVE23p
23
PROE36p
36
TEMPO24p
24
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
VANRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs9.6-2.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+17.5
VANDERBILT won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UKRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.0-7.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.4
KENTUCKY won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERVANDERBILTKENTUCKY2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB95%Diego PaviaQB · 95% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL76%Isaia GlassOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChase MitchellOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryce HendersonOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL56%Khordae SydnorDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZaylin WoodDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoshua SinghDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE56%Eli StowersDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTre RichardsonPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRichie HoskinsWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB49%Randon FontenettePORTAL · COLORADO · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarlen SewellS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKolbey TaylorCB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB29%Langston PattersonLB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPrince KollieLB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB10%AJ NewberryPORTAL · OREGON STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJared Curtis · SIGNEE ★5PARTIAL
OLBeau Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH DAKOTA STATEMicah DeBose · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMAMitchell Smith · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DLBrian Allen · PORTAL ★4 · IOWAJace McCallum · SIGNEE ★3Daryl Campbell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEJa'Cory Thomas · PORTAL ★4 · OLD DOMINIONJayvontay Conner · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINATilden Riley · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBRicardo Jones · PORTAL ★3 · CLEMSONCollin Flanigan · SIGNEE ★4Bradley Brown · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBDaniel Vollmer Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBEvan Hampton · SIGNEE ★4Izayah Lee · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · VANDERBILT
CARRIED COMPOSITE
47.974 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
41.256 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
51.878 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7878856752 OF 5 GRADED
RB56565410084 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE75756448229 OF 22 GRADED
OL54546363188 OF 18 GRADED
DL585862602412 OF 24 GRADED
LB585855100115 OF 11 GRADED
DB585874752315 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE70th70
BLUE-CHIP RATIO21%71
RECRUITING CLASS#33 · 5/23 BC76
CLASS RANK TREND+7 · 3 CYCLES64
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 18 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UKWILL STEINFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
VANCLARK LEA6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4141
PACE
1010
PASS RATE
4646
EXPLOSIVENESS
8282
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6464
HAVOC
5050
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESVAN OFFENSEUK OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBVANDERBILT OFFENSE
NATIONAL
4OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
78
RET
67
NATIONAL
38OF 136
RET
24
FULL DEFENSEKENTUCKY DEFENSE
VAN QUARTERBACKSn=533% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BLAZE BERLOWITZQBRET
514TH YR3578★3+20
JARED CURTISQBTRUE FR
501ST YR—100★5—
WHIT MUSCHAMPQBRET
413RD YR—69★3—
JACK ELLIOTTQBRET
352ND YR—67★3—
DREW COWARTQBTRUE FR
322ND YR—6★2—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UK DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 44 PLAYERS47% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6665%20%
LINEBACKERSLB
6262%33%
SECONDARYDB
5743%32%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLVANDERBILT OFFENSE
NATIONAL
60OF 138
TAL
63
PERF
54
RET
63
DL
16OF 138
DL RET
65
LB
22OF 138
LB RET
62
FRONT-7KENTUCKY DEFENSE
VAN OFFENSIVE LINEn=1837% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LYNDON COOPEROLPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
514TH YR—64★3+34 2025
ORION IRVINGOLRET
504TH YR—45★3-2 2025
GUNNER GIVENSOLRET
494TH YR—28★3—
CADE MCCONNELLOLRET
494TH YR—73★3-2 2025
MITCHELL SMITHOLTRUE FR
491ST YR—88★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UK FRONT-7n=22 · 2 ROOMS36% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TAVION GADSONDLRET
904TH YR—79★3+27 2025
MI'QUISE HUMPHREY-GRACEDLRET
614TH YR7397★4+8
AHMAD BREAUXDTPORTAL · LSU
563RD YR7645★3-36
ELIJAH BARNESLBPORTAL · TEXAS
522ND YR3292★4—
KALEN EDWARDSDLRET
512ND YR3085★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBVANDERBILT OFFENSE
NATIONAL
52OF 138
TAL
54
PERF
56
RET
100
DL
16OF 138
DL RET
65
LB
22OF 138
LB RET
62
FRONT-7KENTUCKY DEFENSE
VAN RUNNING BACKSn=80% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SEDRICK ALEXANDERRBRET
684TH YR9775★3-14
MAKHILYN YOUNGRBRET
604TH YR5810★3+35 2025
JAMEZELL LASSITERRBRET
523RD YR21—UNR+37
EVAN HAMPTONRBTRUE FR
471ST YR—84★4—
GABE FISHERFBRET
544TH YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UK FRONT-72 ROOMS · 22 PLAYERS36% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556665%20%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456262%33%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEVANDERBILT OFFENSE
NATIONAL
5OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
75
RET
48
DB
44OF 138
DB RET
43
SECONDARYKENTUCKY DEFENSE
VAN PASS CATCHERSn=2252% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JA'CORY THOMASWRPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
693RD YR7392★4+33
JUNIOR SHERRILLWRRET
664TH YR9856★3+15
JAYVONTAY CONNERTEPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
653RD YR5589★3+52
MAURICE VENEYTEPORTAL · MOREHOUSE
523RD YR—28★3—
WALTER TAYLORTETRUE FR
524TH YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UK SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM57% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TY BRYANTDBRET
884TH YR9659★3+24
AARON GATESDBPORTAL · FLORIDA
734TH YR—64★3+18 2025
JORDAN CASTELLDBPORTAL · FLORIDA
574TH YR10078★3+13
KEVIS THOMASDBRET
544TH YR—64★3-36 2025
ISAIAH MCMILLIANDBTRUE FR
521ST YR—81★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
VAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UK
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
47.7
49.9
— OFFENSE
56.3
67.6
— DEFENSE
39.0
32.3
SP+ OVERALL
10.1
6.2
FPI
6.8
4.2
ELO
1746
1440
TALENT
727
787
PRODUCTION
79
66
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−17
+17
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.21
0.31
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
VAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UK
OFF EFFICIENCY
97
57
DEF EFFICIENCY
47
29
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
97
7
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
23
61
FINISHING DRIVES
100
45
FIELD POSITION
41
39
TURNOVER MARGIN
45
32
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
VAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UK
PASS RATE
45.3%
50.0%
PACE
28.1s
30.5s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
60.2%
54.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
60.0%
63.3%
PLAYS / GAME
64.0
59.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
4.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = VAN, ORANGE = UK) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE