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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›MISS @ TEX›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
OLE MISS
TEXAS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|DKR-TEXAS MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#8AP
13FPI
MISSSECOLE MISS
3-0
91
93
72
50%
72
96
0.0
—
—
HOME
#1AP
2FPI
TEXSECTEXAS
3-0
99
62
81
72%
96
88
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MISS61CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
46
PROE
66
TEMPO
72
EXPLOSIVE46p
46
PROE66p
66
TEMPO72p
72
TEX65CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
24
PROE
74
TEMPO
96
EXPLOSIVE24p
24
PROE74p
74
TEMPO96p
96
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MISSRECORD OVERSTATES
11-1ACTUALvs9.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+17.2
OLE MISS won 11 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEXRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.8
TEXAS won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROLE MISSTEXAS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE78%Dae'Quan WrightTE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHarrison Wallace IIIWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDe'Zhaun StriblingDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB73%TJ DotteryPORTAL · LSU · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTahj ChambersLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden YatesPORTAL · HOUSTON · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB66%Kapena GushikenS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWydett Williams Jr.S · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris Graves Jr.PORTAL · MISSOURI · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL44%Zxavian HarrisDT · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPrincewill UmanmielenPORTAL · LSU · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDa'Shawn WomackPORTAL · AUBURN · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL43%Jayden WilliamsDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDiego PoundsOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB19%Logan DiggsRB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDamien TaylorRB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB15%Austin SimmonsPORTAL · MISSOURI · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEDarrell Gill Jr. · PORTAL ★4 · SYRACUSEHoratio Fields · PORTAL ★4 · AUBURNJohntay Cook · PORTAL ★3 · SYRACUSE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBLuke Ferrelli · PORTAL ★4 · CALIFORNIAAnt Davis · SIGNEE ★3Ja'Michael Garrett · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJay Crawford · PORTAL ★4 · AUBURNEdwin Joseph · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDA STATEJoenel Aguero · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLBlake Purchase · PORTAL ★4 · OREGONMichai Boireau · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDAJordan Renaud · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLCarius Curne · PORTAL ★4 · LSUEmanuel Tucker · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
RBMakhi Frazier · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEDamarius Yates · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
QBDeuce Knight · PORTAL ★4 · AUBURNINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OLE MISS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
49.577 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
66.196 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
39.047 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB78786410071 OF 7 GRADED
RB6363805573 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE5959872225CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL606074018CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL818194531710 OF 17 GRADED
LB63638728134 OF 13 GRADED
DB71718745267 OF 26 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE91st91
BLUE-CHIP RATIO54%92
RECRUITING CLASS#22 · 8/22 BC84
CLASS RANK TREND-1 · 3 CYCLES48
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+3 · 28 IN / 25 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TEXSTEVE SARKISIAN6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7676
PACE
6767
PASS RATE
5656
EXPLOSIVENESS
6868
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4242
HAVOC
8787
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MISSPETE GOLDINGFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMISS OFFENSETEX OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOLE MISS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
5OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
78
RET
100
NATIONAL
27OF 136
RET
55
FULL DEFENSETEXAS DEFENSE
MISS QUARTERBACKSn=70% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TRINIDAD CHAMBLISSQBRET
914TH YR7664★3+37
DEUCE KNIGHTQBPORTAL · AUBURN
521ST YR—99★4+27 2025
AJ MADDOXQBRET
482ND YR—88★4—
WALKER HOWARDQBPORTAL · LOUISIANA
484TH YR—45★3-55 2025
JACK PATTERSONQBTRUE FR
352ND YR—34★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS28% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6283%68%
LINEBACKERSLB
7326%27%
SECONDARYDB
6482%71%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOLE MISS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
40OF 138
TAL
74
PERF
60
RET
0
DL
30OF 138
DL RET
83
LB
10OF 138
LB RET
26
FRONT-7TEXAS DEFENSE
MISS OFFENSIVE LINEn=18100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TROY EVERETTOLPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
634TH YR—45★3+41 2025
PATRICK KUTASOLRET
544TH YR—98★4-10 2025
DELANO TOWNSENDOLRET
523RD YR—24★3+29 2025
CONNOR HOWESOLRET
502ND YR—80★3—
JOHN WAYNE OLIVEROLRET
502ND YR—81★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS40% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RASHEEM BILESLBPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
924TH YR9598★4+16
COLIN SIMMONSEDGERET
863RD YR93100★5+43
ALEX JANUARYDLRET
683RD YR6983★3-22
HERO KANUDLRET
604TH YR8289★3-1
IAN GEFFRARDDLPORTAL · ARKANSAS
584TH YR8197★4-34
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOLE MISS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
23OF 138
TAL
80
PERF
63
RET
55
DL
30OF 138
DL RET
83
LB
10OF 138
LB RET
26
FRONT-7TEXAS DEFENSE
MISS RUNNING BACKSn=745% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KEWAN LACYRBRET
823RD YR9685★3-10
JT LINDSEYRBPORTAL · LSU
491ST YR—64★3—
MAKHI FRAZIERRBPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
413RD YR7185★3-36
JOSHUA DYERBPORTAL · SOUTHERN UTAH
523RD YR—9★3—
SHEKAI MILLS-KNIGHTRBRET
491ST YR—94★4—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS42% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556283%68%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.457326%27%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOLE MISS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
38OF 138
TAL
87
PERF
59
RET
22
DB
12OF 138
DB RET
82
SECONDARYTEXAS DEFENSE
MISS PASS CATCHERSn=2578% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LUKE HASZTERET
764TH YR7797★4+33
MICHAEL SMITHTETRUE FR
542ND YR—78★3-22 2025
DEUCE ALEXANDERWRRET
543RD YR9492★4+18
DARRELL GILL JR.WRPORTAL · SYRACUSE
514TH YR—99★4+18 2025
CALEB CUNNINGHAMWRRET
501ST YR—99★5—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM18% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BO MASCOEDBPORTAL · RUTGERS
884TH YR9495★4+6
JELANI MCDONALDDBRET
714TH YR9597★4+15
WARREN ROBERSONDBRET
523RD YR5391★4+43
DEREK WILLIAMS JR.DBRET
503RD YR8164★3+16
KADE PHILLIPSDBRET
492ND YR5699★5+11
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MISS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
52.2
46.6
— OFFENSE
50.3
54.6
— DEFENSE
54.1
38.6
SP+ OVERALL
15.2
25.0
FPI
17.7
28.1
ELO
1859
1935
TALENT
886
985
PRODUCTION
89
96
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−3
+2
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.54
0.61
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MISS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
OFF EFFICIENCY
92
31
DEF EFFICIENCY
72
69
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
67
91
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
31
81
FINISHING DRIVES
91
28
FIELD POSITION
74
15
TURNOVER MARGIN
39
73
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MISS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
PASS RATE
58.7%
47.6%
PACE
26.2s
23.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
44.6%
60.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
67.2%
65.8%
PLAYS / GAME
68.7
76.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
2.9%
1.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MISS, ORANGE = TEX) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE