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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›BAY @ KU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
BAYLOR
KANSAS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP14|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
38FPI
BAYB12BAYLOR
2-1
69
80
74
60%
99
78
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
67FPI
KUB12KANSAS
1-2
55
87
56
18%
79
66
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
BAY87CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
70
PROE
93
TEMPO
99
EXPLOSIVE70p
70
PROE93p
93
TEMPO99p
99
KU71CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
92
PROE
41
TEMPO
79
EXPLOSIVE92p
92
PROE41p
41
TEMPO79p
79
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
BAYRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.7-6.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.5
BAYLOR won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
KURECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.3
KANSAS won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBAYLORKANSAS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB99%Sawyer RobertsonQB · 99% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE84%Josh CameronDRAFTED · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAshtyn HawkinsWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael TriggTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL78%Emar'rion WinstonPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJackie MarshallDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCooper LanzDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL63%Ryan LengyelOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONColeton PriceOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOmar AigbedionOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB58%Devyn BobbyS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ ColemanPORTAL · FLORIDA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKendrick SimpkinsS · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB53%Keaton ThomasPORTAL · OLE MISS · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB50%Bryson WashingtonPORTAL · AUBURN · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoseph DoddsRB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDJ Lagway · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDAQuinn Murphy · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEDre'lon Miller · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOHardley Gilmore IV · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYGavin Freeman · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLHosea Wheeler · PORTAL ★4 · INDIANAGarrick Ponder · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN MISSJordan Mack · PORTAL ★3 · COASTAL CAROLINA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLNate Kibble · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASCole Rhett · PORTAL ★3 · TOLEDOYakiri Walker · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHIS2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJordan Davis · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBJamarion Phillips · SIGNEE ★3Jahiem Porter · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBHD Davis · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BAYLOR
CARRIED COMPOSITE
28.620 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
17.514 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
36.039 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB454598051 OF 5 GRADED
RB4949754163 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE60606666218 OF 21 GRADED
OL64645938206 OF 20 GRADED
DL434369261911 OF 19 GRADED
LB31316782105 OF 10 GRADED
DB56567246259 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE69th69
BLUE-CHIP RATIO24%74
RECRUITING CLASS#57 · 4/14 BC58
CLASS RANK TREND+10 · 3 CYCLES70
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 31 IN / 32 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 7th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
KULANCE LEIPOLD6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2222
PACE
1717
PASS RATE
1515
EXPLOSIVENESS
7979
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5656
HAVOC
5050
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BAYDAVE ARANDA7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6464
PACE
8989
PASS RATE
6565
EXPLOSIVENESS
6060
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9999
HAVOC
3636
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBAY OFFENSEKU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBAYLOR OFFENSE
NATIONAL
96OF 138
TAL
98
PERF
45
RET
0
NATIONAL
85OF 136
RET
35
FULL DEFENSEKANSAS DEFENSE
BAY QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DJ LAGWAYQBPORTAL · FLORIDA
463RD YR8598★4+10 2025
NATE BENNETTQBRET
453RD YR—47★3—
EDWARD GRIFFINQBRET
352ND YR—69★3—
QUINN MURPHYQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
CADE TESSIERQBRET
324TH YR—13★2—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
KU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS54% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6158%10%
LINEBACKERSLB
5645%8%
SECONDARYDB
5141%10%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBAYLOR OFFENSE
NATIONAL
25OF 138
TAL
59
PERF
64
RET
38
DL
31OF 138
DL RET
58
LB
40OF 138
LB RET
45
FRONT-7KANSAS DEFENSE
BAY OFFENSIVE LINEn=2062% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NATE KIBBLEOLPORTAL · TEXAS
523RD YR—78★3—
ASHER HALEOLPORTAL · SOUTH ALABAMA
763RD YR—45★3+50 2025
KOLTIN SIERACKIOLRET
503RD YR—57★3-17 2025
COOPER LOVELACEOLPORTAL · COLORADO
494TH YR—64★3+1 2024
HARRISON CLUFFOLRET
492ND YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
KU FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS47% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EAMON SMALLSDTPORTAL · UAB
853RD YR—45★3+15 2025
BLAKE HEROLDDTRET
843RD YR—40★3-13 2025
TREY LATHANLBRET
624TH YR9964★3+24
MARCUS CALVINDTRET
583RD YR—52★3—
LEROY HARRIS IIIDERET
553RD YR6545★3+34
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBAYLOR OFFENSE
NATIONAL
87OF 138
TAL
75
PERF
49
RET
41
DL
31OF 138
DL RET
58
LB
40OF 138
LB RET
45
FRONT-7KANSAS DEFENSE
BAY RUNNING BACKSn=659% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CADEN KNIGHTENRBRET
582ND YR6884★4-21
DAWSON PENDERGRASSRBRET
564TH YR8868★3+24
MICHAEL TURNERRBRET
492ND YR5590★4+4
HD DAVISRBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
RYELAN MORRISRBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
KU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS48% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556158%10%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455645%8%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBAYLOR OFFENSE
NATIONAL
35OF 138
TAL
66
PERF
60
RET
66
DB
68OF 138
DB RET
41
SECONDARYKANSAS DEFENSE
BAY PASS CATCHERSn=2134% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TONY LIVINGSTONTEPORTAL · FLORIDA
554TH YR—64★3+25 2025
GAVIN FREEMANWRPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
504TH YR8264★3+10
LOUIS BROWN IVWRRET
504TH YR9945★3+16
HAWKINS POLLEYTERET
494TH YR971★3—
MATTHEW KLOPFENSTEINTERET
494TH YR5884★3-23
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
KU SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM59% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JALEN TODDCBRET
883RD YR8383★3+33
COREY GORDONSTRUE FR
614TH YR9273★3-13
KHIJOHNN CUMMINGS-COLEMANSPORTAL · IOWA STATE
522ND YR—45★3—
AUSTIN ALEXANDERCBRET
492ND YR—88★4-32 2025
TAYLOR DAVISSRET
483RD YR8954★3-6
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BAY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
KU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
42.6
55.2
— OFFENSE
43.5
65.3
— DEFENSE
41.8
45.0
SP+ OVERALL
7.4
4.7
FPI
8.1
-0.1
ELO
1534
1481
TALENT
723
685
PRODUCTION
61
58
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+12
−3
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.24
0.10
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BAY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
KU
OFF EFFICIENCY
70
91
DEF EFFICIENCY
28
53
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
69
6
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
86
7
FINISHING DRIVES
30
67
FIELD POSITION
61
48
TURNOVER MARGIN
26
10
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BAY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
KU
PASS RATE
49.4%
43.8%
PACE
22.4s
25.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
60.7%
62.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
72.6%
54.5%
PLAYS / GAME
80.3
70.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
2.5%
1.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BAY, ORANGE = KU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE