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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›BYU @ UCF›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
BYU
UCF
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|FBC MORTGAGE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP5|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#11AP
19FPI
BYUB12BYU
3-0
58
86
84
79%
20
69
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
52FPI
UCFB12UCF
2-1
53
66
82
25%
7
55
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
BYU23CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
26
PROE
22
TEMPO
20
EXPLOSIVE26p
26
PROE22p
22
TEMPO20p
20
UCF55CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
88
PROE
70
TEMPO
7
EXPLOSIVE88p
88
PROE70p
70
TEMPO7p
7
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
BYURECORD MATCHES
11-2ACTUALvs10.1-2.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.9
BYU won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UCFRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.8
UCF won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBYUUCF2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE73%Carsen RyanDRAFTED · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONParker KingstonWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChase RobertsWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB37%Tanner WallS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMory BambaCB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTayvion BeasleyPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB34%Jack KellyDRAFTED · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMax AlfordPORTAL · MICHIGAN · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL33%Isaiah JattaOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin LeausaG · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWeylin LapuahoG · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL32%Logan LutuiDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohn TaumoepeauDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB11%Enoch NawahineRB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB1%McCae HillsteadPORTAL · UTAH STATE · 1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TERoger Saleapaga II · PORTAL ★4 · OREGONWalker Lyons · PORTAL ★4 · USCKyler Kasper · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON7 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBMatthew Mason · SIGNEE ★3Antonio Johnson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBCade Uluave · PORTAL ★4 · CALIFORNIAAdam Bywater · SIGNEE ★3Braxton Lindsey · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLPaki Finau · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTONZak Yamauchi · PORTAL ★3 · STANFORDBott Mulitalo · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLLopeti Moala · SIGNEE ★4Nehemiah Kolone · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
QBRyder Lyons · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BYU
CARRIED COMPOSITE
64.897 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
58.587 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
68.197 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB76764810052 OF 5 GRADED
RB80805266107 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE727268412317 OF 23 GRADED
OL676749731911 OF 19 GRADED
DL575752862016 OF 20 GRADED
LB626255411310 OF 13 GRADED
DB636349512114 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE58th58
BLUE-CHIP RATIO14%59
RECRUITING CLASS#21 · 7/21 BC85
CLASS RANK TREND+23 · 3 CYCLES96
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+3 · 9 IN / 13 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UCFSCOTT FROST2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7474
PACE
3535
PASS RATE
7777
EXPLOSIVENESS
9797
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9696
HAVOC
6060
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BYUKALANI SITAKE11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5454
PACE
2828
PASS RATE
5151
EXPLOSIVENESS
6767
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7979
HAVOC
3131
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBYU OFFENSEUCF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBYU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
8OF 138
TAL
48
PERF
76
RET
100
NATIONAL
37OF 136
RET
7
FULL DEFENSEUCF DEFENSE
BYU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEAR BACHMEIERQBRET
652ND YR7445★3+18
TREYSON BOURGUETQBRET
444TH YR6378★3-44
ENOCH WATSONQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
JOHN SANDERSQBTRUE FR
302ND YR——UNR—
OWEN GEILMANQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS50% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5858%14%
LINEBACKERSLB
4838%17%
SECONDARYDB
5150%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBYU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
21OF 138
TAL
49
PERF
67
RET
73
DL
38OF 138
DL RET
58
LB
71OF 138
LB RET
38
FRONT-7UCF DEFENSE
BYU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1927% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KYLE SFARCIOCOLRET
714TH YR—64★3+50 2025
BRUCE MITCHELLOLRET
644TH YR—18★3+27 2025
SONNY MAKASINIOLRET
634TH YR—22★3+37 2025
ANDREW GENTRYOLRET
614TH YR—64★3-7 2025
SIOSIUA LATU-FINAUOLRET
511ST YR—65★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCF FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS50% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LEWIS CARTERLBRET
704TH YR8778★3+2
JAHLEEL CULBREATHLBPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
564TH YR9645★3+15
HORACE LOCKETTDTRET
544TH YR—78★3-32 2025
AYMERIC KOUMBAEDGERET
523RD YR2964★3—
BRAD GURLEY JR.DTPORTAL · EASTERN KENTUCKY
524TH YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBYU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
3OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
80
RET
66
DL
38OF 138
DL RET
58
LB
71OF 138
LB RET
38
FRONT-7UCF DEFENSE
BYU RUNNING BACKSn=1034% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LJ MARTINRBRET
854TH YR9983★3+6
SIONE MOARBRET
562ND YR485★3+14
DEVAUGHN EKARBTRUE FR
521ST YR——★3—
LOGAN PAYNERBRET
521ST YR——UNR—
PRESTON REXRBRET
474TH YR2732★3+9
SHOW ALL 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS51% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555858%14%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454838%17%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBYU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
8OF 138
TAL
68
PERF
72
RET
41
DB
71OF 138
DB RET
50
SECONDARYUCF DEFENSE
BYU PASS CATCHERSn=2359% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WALKER LYONSTEPORTAL · USC
633RD YR6492★4-3
LEGEND GLASKERWRTRUE FR
521ST YR——UNR—
REGGIE FRISCHKNECHTWRRET
492ND YR21—UNR—
KYLER KASPERWRPORTAL · OREGON
473RD YR4864★3-56
KEAYEN NEADTERET
464TH YR—5★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCF SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM50% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CALEB FLAGGDBPORTAL · MISSOURI
574TH YR—45★3—
DJ BELLDBRET
564TH YR—64★3-30 2025
DEMARI HENDERSONDBRET
564TH YR9677★3-4
JAYDEN WILLIAMSDBRET
544TH YR9445★3-8
JAYDEN BELLAMYDBRET
544TH YR9878★3-14
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BYU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCF
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
56.4
55.8
— OFFENSE
64.6
60.6
— DEFENSE
48.1
50.9
SP+ OVERALL
16.8
5.6
FPI
15.2
4.9
ELO
1692
1481
TALENT
689
672
PRODUCTION
85
55
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−34
+17
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.14
0.19
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BYU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCF
OFF EFFICIENCY
81
26
DEF EFFICIENCY
76
40
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
22
92
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
69
94
FINISHING DRIVES
57
23
FIELD POSITION
56
63
TURNOVER MARGIN
86
34
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BYU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCF
PASS RATE
36.1%
43.0%
PACE
30.0s
32.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
67.8%
61.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
51.4%
53.1%
PLAYS / GAME
60.0
55.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.4%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BYU, ORANGE = UCF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE