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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›KSU @ ASU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
KANSAS STATE
ARIZONA STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|MOUNTAIN AMERICA STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
30FPI
KSUB12KANSAS STATE
3-0
66
69
54
71%
72
61
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
58FPI
ASUB12ARIZONA STATE
2-1
68
61
86
16%
43
66
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
KSU60CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
72
PROE
35
TEMPO
72
EXPLOSIVE72p
72
PROE35p
35
TEMPO72p
72
ASU56CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
88
PROE
37
TEMPO
43
EXPLOSIVE88p
88
PROE37p
37
TEMPO43p
43
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
KSURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.7-5.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+2.8
KANSAS STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ASURECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.7
ARIZONA STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERKANSAS STATEARIZONA STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL79%Cody StufflebeanDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDamian IlalioDT · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChiddi ObiazorPORTAL · INDIANA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL77%Sam HechtDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndrew LeingangOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTaylor PoitierOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB76%Desmond PurnellLB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin RomainePORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB57%VJ PayneDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQua MossPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGunner MaldonadoS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE34%Jayce BrownPORTAL · LSU · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWill SwansonTE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrayden LoftinPORTAL · UCLA · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB33%Dylan EdwardsPORTAL · KANSAS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeVon RicePORTAL · HAWAI'I · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAntonio MartinPORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLWendell Gregory · PORTAL ★4 · OKLAHOMA STATEKamari Burns · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATIElijah Hill · PORTAL ★3 · KENNESAW STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLKeegan Collins · SIGNEE ★3Oliver Miller · SIGNEE ★3Bennett Fraser · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBMekhi Mason · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISIANA TECHDJ Ackerson Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBKaleb Patterson · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOISJosiah Vilmael · SIGNEE ★3Nick McClellan · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEJoshua Manning · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIBrandon White · PORTAL ★3 · HAWAI'IIzaiah Williams · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&M3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJay Harris · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONREFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · KANSAS STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
34.836 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
41.156 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
31.625 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB55559310043 OF 4 GRADED
RB3939713964 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE4444595120CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL414158021CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL57577429199 OF 19 GRADED
LB66666563119 OF 11 GRADED
DB595964572310 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE66th66
BLUE-CHIP RATIO15%63
RECRUITING CLASS#50 · 0/18 BC63
CLASS RANK TREND+7 · 3 CYCLES64
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 26 IN / 33 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ASUKENNY DILLINGHAM4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5050
PACE
6868
PASS RATE
5050
EXPLOSIVENESS
4444
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9191
HAVOC
7373
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
KSUCOLLIN KLEINFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESKSU OFFENSEASU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBKANSAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
63OF 138
TAL
93
PERF
55
RET
100
NATIONAL
23OF 136
RET
30
FULL DEFENSEARIZONA STATE DEFENSE
KSU QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AVERY JOHNSONQBRET
654TH YR9196★4-18
BLAKE BARNETTQBRET
523RD YR—81★3—
JACOB KNUTHQBRET
414TH YR1068★3—
DILLON DUFFQBRET
352ND YR—64★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS54% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5950%20%
LINEBACKERSLB
6741%0%
SECONDARYDB
5645%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLKANSAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
103OF 138
TAL
58
PERF
41
RET
0
DL
35OF 138
DL RET
50
LB
13OF 138
LB RET
41
FRONT-7ARIZONA STATE DEFENSE
KSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=21100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GEORGE FITZPATRICKOLRET
524TH YR—64★3—
MICHAEL CAPRIAOLRET
524TH YR——UNR—
JOHN PASTOREOLRET
514TH YR—53★3-23 2025
TANNER MORLEYOLPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
504TH YR—45★3+41 2025
TYLER JOHNSONOLPORTAL · AUBURN
494TH YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS53% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
OWEN LONGLBPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
803RD YR9095★4-24
JALEN THOMPSONDLPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
594TH YR9489★3+25
ZAC SWANSONDLRET
584TH YR6145★3-47
C.J. FITEDLRET
564TH YR9754★3-30
CLAYTON SMITHDLRET
524TH YR9889★3+15
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBKANSAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
119OF 138
TAL
71
PERF
39
RET
39
DL
35OF 138
DL RET
50
LB
13OF 138
LB RET
41
FRONT-7ARIZONA STATE DEFENSE
KSU RUNNING BACKSn=661% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MONTERRIO ELSTON JR.RBRET
522ND YR560★3—
JOE JACKSONRBRET
504TH YR8681★3+5
RODNEY FIELDS JR.RBPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
503RD YR7764★3+23
JAY HARRISRBTRUE FR
484TH YR4985★3-35
TANNER WESTRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—62★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS54% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555950%20%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456741%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEKANSAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
95OF 138
TAL
59
PERF
44
RET
51
DB
45OF 138
DB RET
45
SECONDARYARIZONA STATE DEFENSE
KSU PASS CATCHERSn=2049% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GARRETT OAKLEYTERET
624TH YR9140★3+17
JARON TIBBSWRRET
494TH YR9545★3-3
IZAIAH WILLIAMSWRPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
493RD YR3864★3-5
WILL ANCIAUXTERET
484TH YR5455★3-6
LINKON CURETERET
472ND YR—99★4-49 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM55% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LYRIK RAWLSDBPORTAL · KANSAS
764TH YR9464★3+25
RODNEY BIMAGE JR.DBRET
583RD YR5379★3+12
MONTANA WARRENDBRET
514TH YR7165★3-13
KYAN MCDONALDDBRET
503RD YR4776★3—
ASHTON STAMPSDBPORTAL · LSU
504TH YR9264★3-23
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
KSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ASU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
57.9
53.5
— OFFENSE
56.4
61.1
— DEFENSE
59.4
45.9
SP+ OVERALL
13.9
7.8
FPI
11.2
3.8
ELO
1692
1535
TALENT
719
722
PRODUCTION
76
64
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−11
+5
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.15
0.15
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
KSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ASU
OFF EFFICIENCY
33
24
DEF EFFICIENCY
67
58
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
96
64
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
19
61
FINISHING DRIVES
75
24
FIELD POSITION
32
78
TURNOVER MARGIN
89
21
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
KSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ASU
PASS RATE
42.2%
47.9%
PACE
26.2s
28.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
63.2%
56.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
54.8%
57.1%
PLAYS / GAME
68.7
64.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.0%
0.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = KSU, ORANGE = ASU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE