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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›WVU @ TCU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
WEST VIRGINIA
TCU
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|AMON G. CARTER STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
49FPI
WVUB12WEST VIRGINIA
3-0
65
21
61
14%
66
84
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
41FPI
TCUB12TCU
2-1
72
84
64
22%
64
85
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
WVU45CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
59
PROE
10
TEMPO
66
EXPLOSIVE59p
59
PROE10p
10
TEMPO66p
66
TCU65CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
50
PROE
81
TEMPO
64
EXPLOSIVE50p
50
PROE81p
81
TEMPO64p
64
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
WVURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs3.7-8.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-9.1
WEST VIRGINIA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TCURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.6
TCU won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWEST VIRGINIATCU2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB100%Diore HubbardRB · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCyncir BowersPORTAL · UCONN · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONClay AshPORTAL · GEORGETOWN · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB95%Jason ChambersCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFred PerryS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael Coats Jr.CB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION11 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE90%Grayson BarnesTE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam VaughnWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRodney Gallagher IIIPORTAL · ARIZONA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION12 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB85%Chase WilsonLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReid CarricoLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBraden SidersLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL83%Edward VesterinenDL · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAsani RedwoodPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin GrantDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL58%Ty'Kieast CrawfordOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKimo Makane'oleOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWalter Young BearOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB48%Nicco MarchiolPORTAL · NORTHWESTERN · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKhalil WilkinsPORTAL · MARSHALL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylen HendersonPORTAL · LIBERTY · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBCam Cook · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSONVILLE STATEAmari Latimer · SIGNEE ★4Chris Talley · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBJacob Bradford · PORTAL ★3 · LSUMatt Sieg · SIGNEE ★4Vincent Smith · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
WR/TETaRon Francis · PORTAL ★3 · LSURobert Oliver · SIGNEE ★3Kade Bush · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBTrey McGlothlin · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLTobi Haastrup · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONCam Mallory · SIGNEE ★3Noah Tishendorf · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLKevin Brown · SIGNEE ★4Jonas Muya · SIGNEE ★3Lamarcus Dillard · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBJohn Johnson III · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WEST VIRGINIA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
15.05 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
21.719 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
11.46 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB464664071 OF 7 GRADED
RB393980082 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE454550523CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL464660019CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL57574724209 OF 20 GRADED
LB63634953116 OF 11 GRADED
DB484843122711 OF 27 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE65th65
BLUE-CHIP RATIO18%68
RECRUITING CLASS#25 · 5/37 BC82
CLASS RANK TREND+21 · 3 CYCLES92
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 34 IN / 50 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TCUSONNY DYKES5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8585
PACE
8181
PASS RATE
7878
EXPLOSIVENESS
7777
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7272
HAVOC
2626
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WVURICH RODRIGUEZ2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
44
PACE
8383
PASS RATE
33
EXPLOSIVENESS
3434
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5757
HAVOC
7878
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWVU OFFENSETCU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWEST VIRGINIA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
91OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
46
RET
0
NATIONAL
42OF 136
RET
37
FULL DEFENSETCU DEFENSE
WVU QUARTERBACKSn=7100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MICHAEL HAWKINS JR.QBPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
542ND YR5964★3-7
JYRON HUGHLEYQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—85★4—
SCOTTY FOX JR.QBRET
442ND YR—71★3+13 2025
MAX ANDERSONQBRET
351ST YR—52★3—
MAX BROWNQBRET
424TH YR—2★3-38 2025
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS20% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4174%29%
LINEBACKERSLB
4664%0%
SECONDARYDB
5389%19%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWEST VIRGINIA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
92OF 138
TAL
60
PERF
46
RET
0
DL
103OF 138
DL RET
74
LB
76OF 138
LB RET
64
FRONT-7TCU DEFENSE
WVU OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CARSTEN CASADYOLPORTAL · UCONN
563RD YR—64★3-8 2025
LANDEN LIVINGSTONOLRET
544TH YR—77★3+49 2025
AMARE GRAYSONOLPORTAL · JACKSONVILLE STATE
523RD YR—45★3+10 2025
JOSH AISOSAOLRET
522ND YR—64★3—
CAM GRIFFINOLTRUE FR
504TH YR—28★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS30% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PAUL OYEWALEEDGERET
534TH YR9078★3-22
MICHAEL TEASON JR.LBRET
524TH YR3264★3—
MICHAEL SHORTLBPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH
514TH YR5564★3—
KELTEN MICKELLDTRET
504TH YR26—UNR—
JOHN SCHOBELEDGERET
492ND YR3176★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWEST VIRGINIA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
115OF 138
TAL
80
PERF
39
RET
0
DL
103OF 138
DL RET
74
LB
76OF 138
LB RET
64
FRONT-7TCU DEFENSE
WVU RUNNING BACKSn=8100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAM COOKRBPORTAL · JACKSONVILLE STATE
624TH YR9978★3-5
AMARI LATIMERRBTRUE FR
521ST YR1690★4—
LAWRENCE AUTRYRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—60★3—
DARIUS MORANTRBTRUE FR
302ND YR——UNR—
MARTAVIOUS BOSWELLRBTRUE FR
303RD YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS30% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554174%29%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454664%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWEST VIRGINIA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
92OF 138
TAL
50
PERF
45
RET
5
DB
59OF 138
DB RET
89
SECONDARYTCU DEFENSE
WVU PASS CATCHERSn=2395% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOHN NEIDERWRPORTAL · UCONN
623RD YR6464★3+20
RYAN WARDTERET
463RD YR—28★3—
DJ EPPSWRPORTAL · TROY
464TH YR8245★3-10
JADEN BRAYWRRET
454TH YR8678★3+12
CYRUS TRAUGHWRRET
413RD YR—78★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM12% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMEL JOHNSONSRET
704TH YR9984★4+6
KYLIN JACKSONSRET
584TH YR5964★3+27
JULIUS SIMMSSRET
532ND YR4965★3—
DEVYN HIDROGOSRET
523RD YR2775★3—
RYAN YAITESSRET
494TH YR—45★3+4 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WVU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TCU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
52.5
42.2
— OFFENSE
48.3
42.3
— DEFENSE
56.7
42.2
SP+ OVERALL
3.0
11.3
FPI
5.3
7.2
ELO
1408
1629
TALENT
708
731
PRODUCTION
48
77
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+9
+5
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.18
0.22
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WVU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TCU
OFF EFFICIENCY
13
68
DEF EFFICIENCY
64
63
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
39
63
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
6
35
FINISHING DRIVES
21
69
FIELD POSITION
66
35
TURNOVER MARGIN
49
28
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WVU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TCU
PASS RATE
22.2%
47.0%
PACE
26.6s
26.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
87.9%
57.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
50.0%
58.9%
PLAYS / GAME
67.7
67.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.5%
3.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WVU, ORANGE = TCU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE