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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›BC @ GT›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
BOSTON COLLEGE
GEORGIA TECH
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|BOBBY DODD STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP27|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
82FPI
BCACCBOSTON COLLEGE
1-1
49
59
35
16%
42
82
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
59FPI
GTACCGEORGIA TECH
0-2
76
90
39
13%
30
83
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
BC65CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
61
PROE
92
TEMPO
42
EXPLOSIVE61p
61
PROE92p
92
TEMPO42p
42
GT27CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
16
PROE
36
TEMPO
30
EXPLOSIVE16p
16
PROE36p
36
TEMPO30p
30
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
BCRECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs4.3-7.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.3
BOSTON COLLEGE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
GTRECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.9-4.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.1
GEORGIA TECH won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBOSTON COLLEGEGEORGIA TECH2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Dylan LonerganPORTAL · RUTGERS · 61% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGrayson JamesQB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShaker ReisigQB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB92%Turbo RichardPORTAL · INDIANA · 59% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan McDonaldRB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB81%Owen McGowanLB · 57% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryce SteelePORTAL · TROY · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJason Hewlett Jr.LB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL73%Logan TaylorDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKevin ClineOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEryx DaughertyOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE66%Jeremiah FranklinTE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLewis BondDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReed HarrisPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL59%Sedarius McConnellDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEdwin KolengePORTAL · VANDERBILT · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuintayvious HutchinsDRAFTED · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB24%Omar ThorntonPORTAL · MIAMI · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBGrayson Wilson · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASFemi Babalola · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBSedric Addison · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBKris Jones · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIASteve Klein · SIGNEE ★3Mekhi Volcy · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLTrevon Humphrey · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINA CENTRALKristian Phillips · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEMarcelino Antunes Jr. · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEReed Swanson · PORTAL ★3 · COLGATELandon Wright · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATEKelvin Brown · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLKJ Sampson · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEMason Leak · SIGNEE ★4Demeterius Thompson · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBChandler Jordan · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA STATEJordan Rodriguez · SIGNEE ★3DJ Biggins · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BOSTON COLLEGE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
44.465 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
29.831 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
54.986 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB363645061 OF 6 GRADED
RB4949485782 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE515159662411 OF 24 GRADED
OL48485952198 OF 19 GRADED
DL393957452312 OF 23 GRADED
LB21213020114 OF 11 GRADED
DB494959942513 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE49th49
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%34
RECRUITING CLASS#53 · 1/24 BC61
CLASS RANK TREND+42 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 26 IN / 30 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
GTBRENT KEY5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4141
PACE
5959
PASS RATE
4343
EXPLOSIVENESS
4343
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4040
HAVOC
3838
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BCBILL O'BRIEN3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5757
PACE
6565
PASS RATE
5454
EXPLOSIVENESS
4747
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9191
HAVOC
2020
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBC OFFENSEGT OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
121OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
36
RET
0
NATIONAL
68OF 136
RET
23
FULL DEFENSEGEORGIA TECH DEFENSE
BC QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MASON MCKENZIEQBPORTAL · SAGINAW VALLEY STATE
493RD YR3945★3-39
GRAYSON WILSONQBPORTAL · ARKANSAS
371ST YR—64★3—
FEMI BABALOLAQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—73★3—
ANTHONY COELLNERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—54★3—
ENZO ARJONAQBRET
304TH YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GT DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 46 PLAYERS30% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5332%15%
LINEBACKERSLB
39100%0%
SECONDARYDB
5478%26%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
82OF 138
TAL
59
PERF
48
RET
52
DL
54OF 138
DL RET
32
LB
103OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7GEORGIA TECH DEFENSE
BC OFFENSIVE LINEn=1948% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
OWEN SNIVELYOLPORTAL · EASTERN MICHIGAN
574TH YR—45★3-11 2025
MICHAEL CROUNSEOLRET
563RD YR—56★3+33 2025
KRISTIAN PHILLIPSOLPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
554TH YR—64★3+44 2025
JANI NORWOODOLPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
502ND YR—45★3—
JUDAH PRUITTOLRET
492ND YR—60★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GT FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS41% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TAWFIQ THOMASDTPORTAL · COLORADO
584TH YR7664★3+0
JORDAN WALKERDEPORTAL · RUTGERS
564TH YR8178★3+23
NOAH CARTERDEPORTAL · ALABAMA
563RD YR4498★4—
KYLE EFFORDLBRET
554TH YR9759★3-14
CAYMAN SPAULDINGLBRET
524TH YR6345★3-30
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
83OF 138
TAL
48
PERF
49
RET
57
DL
54OF 138
DL RET
32
LB
103OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7GEORGIA TECH DEFENSE
BC RUNNING BACKSn=843% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EVAN DICKENSRBPORTAL · LIBERTY
713RD YR9145★3+14
BO MACCORMACK IIIRBRET
482ND YR3550★3-42
NOLAN RAYRBPORTAL · MARYLAND
443RD YR—45★3-22 2025
ANTHONY FERRUCCIRBRET
503RD YR——UNR—
MEKHI DODDRBRET
471ST YR—65★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GT FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS37% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555332%15%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4539100%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
66OF 138
TAL
59
PERF
51
RET
66
DB
56OF 138
DB RET
78
SECONDARYGEORGIA TECH DEFENSE
BC PASS CATCHERSn=2434% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NEDRICK BOLDIN JR.WRRET
511ST YR—62★3—
BRADY CLOUGHTERET
512ND YR3—UNR—
ZEKE MOORETERET
504TH YR6432★3-42
REED SWANSONWRPORTAL · COLGATE
493RD YR—78★3—
JACKSON WADEWRPORTAL · FLORIDA
483RD YR1645★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GT SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM22% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SAVION RILEYSRET
794TH YR7328★3+16
ZACHARY TOBECBRET
574TH YR8967★3-26
JONAS DUCLONACBPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
564TH YR7864★3-6
TAE HARRISSRET
522ND YR5798★4+20
KELVIN HILLCBRET
503RD YR9364★3-19
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
GT
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
37.3
43.5
— OFFENSE
44.6
44.7
— DEFENSE
30.0
42.2
SP+ OVERALL
-3.3
2.7
FPI
-3.9
1.7
ELO
1380
1515
TALENT
660
752
PRODUCTION
41
70
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+17
+4
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.07
0.14
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
GT
OFF EFFICIENCY
56
95
DEF EFFICIENCY
34
25
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
38
16
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
9
53
FINISHING DRIVES
17
65
FIELD POSITION
81
74
TURNOVER MARGIN
18
14
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
GT
PASS RATE
51.2%
57.0%
PACE
27.9s
29.8s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
59.3%
52.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
68.8%
74.4%
PLAYS / GAME
64.5
60.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BC, ORANGE = GT) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE