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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›SYR @ UNC›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
SYRACUSE
NORTH CAROLINA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|KENAN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP5|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
64FPI
SYRACCSYRACUSE
1-2
75
50
75
35%
97
77
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
51FPI
UNCACCNORTH CAROLINA
2-1
80
51
65
28%
15
70
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
SYR71CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
77
PROE
38
TEMPO
97
EXPLOSIVE77p
77
PROE38p
38
TEMPO97p
97
UNC26CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
4
PROE
59
TEMPO
15
EXPLOSIVE4p
4
PROE59p
59
TEMPO15p
15
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
SYRRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.6-9.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-14.8
SYRACUSE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UNCRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.3-7.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.3
NORTH CAROLINA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSYRACUSENORTH CAROLINA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB91%Will NixonRB · 49% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONYasin WillisPORTAL · KANSAS · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden HartPORTAL · UCONN · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL81%David ReeseDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKevin Jobity Jr.DL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDion Wilson Jr.DL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE74%Dan VillariTE · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarrell Gill Jr.PORTAL · OLE MISS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohntay Cook IIPORTAL · OLE MISS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL51%Da'Metrius WeatherspoonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTJ FergusonOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin CollinsOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB48%Rickie CollinsPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB35%Duce ChestnutDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin GrantDB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBerry Buxton IIIDB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB27%Anwar SparrowLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames Heard Jr.LB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBJu'Juan Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · LSUShavane Anderson Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLDillan Fontus · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLANDKamron Wilson · SIGNEE ★4Jarius Rodgers · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEMatt Outten · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEMichael Smith · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINACalvin Russell III · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLOluwafunto Akinshilo · PORTAL ★3 · UCLAJaveion Cooper · SIGNEE ★3Joseph White · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBZaid Lott · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBTedarius Hughes · SIGNEE ★4Chase Geter · SIGNEE ★3Terrance Johnson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBGemaus Sackie · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SYRACUSE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
45.566 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
36.146 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
51.775 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4848818673 OF 7 GRADED
RB4848637264 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE5151612021CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL4747471423CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL48486541157 OF 15 GRADED
LB53535954129 OF 12 GRADED
DB62626388229 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE75th75
BLUE-CHIP RATIO21%71
RECRUITING CLASS#35 · 4/26 BC74
CLASS RANK TREND+3 · 3 CYCLES56
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 19 IN / 29 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UNCBILL BELICHICK2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7070
PACE
11
PASS RATE
7676
EXPLOSIVENESS
88
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1313
HAVOC
2323
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SYRFRAN BROWN3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8888
PACE
9494
PASS RATE
9090
EXPLOSIVENESS
2929
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8888
HAVOC
3939
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSYR OFFENSEUNC OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSYRACUSE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
89OF 138
TAL
81
PERF
48
RET
86
NATIONAL
63OF 136
RET
22
FULL DEFENSENORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
SYR QUARTERBACKSn=714% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AMARI ODOMQBPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE
533RD YR6764★3+34
STEVE ANGELIQBRET
504TH YR6485★3+25
MALACHI NELSONQBPORTAL · UTEP
433RD YR6145★3-48 2025
JOSEPH FILARDIQBRET
422ND YR——UNR-53 2025
DANNY LAUTERQBPORTAL · GEORGETOWN
373RD YR—28★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS25% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4565%29%
LINEBACKERSLB
6020%15%
SECONDARYDB
5397%30%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSYRACUSE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
86OF 138
TAL
47
PERF
47
RET
14
DL
88OF 138
DL RET
65
LB
29OF 138
LB RET
20
FRONT-7NORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
SYR OFFENSIVE LINEn=2386% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TREVION MACKOLRET
503RD YR—36★3-29 2025
NAQUIL BETRANDOLRET
553RD YR—64★3+2 2025
JOE CRUZOLRET
524TH YR—32★3+36 2025
JAYDEN MANNOLRET
521ST YR—66★3—
BYRON WASHINGTONOLRET
512ND YR—63★3-14 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS53% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LEROY JACKSONDLRET
692ND YR6864★3-37
ISAIAH JOHNSONDLRET
564TH YR7689★3-27
XAVIER LEWISDLRET
522ND YR53—UNR+19
TREY GIDDENSDLRET
521ST YR2421★3—
DONOVAN HOILETTE JR.DLTRUE FR
504TH YR28—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSYRACUSE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
90OF 138
TAL
63
PERF
48
RET
72
DL
88OF 138
DL RET
65
LB
29OF 138
LB RET
20
FRONT-7NORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
SYR RUNNING BACKSn=628% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TYLIK HILLRBRET
522ND YR3762★3+12
SHAVANE ANDERSON JR.RBTRUE FR
521ST YR—66★3+37
MALACHI COLEMANRBRET
491ST YR2167★3-55
DAVION KERRRBRET
492ND YR1446★3—
JU'JUAN JOHNSONRBPORTAL · LSU
443RD YR—78★3-44 2025
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS55% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554565%29%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456020%15%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESYRACUSE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
63OF 138
TAL
61
PERF
51
RET
20
DB
61OF 138
DB RET
97
SECONDARYNORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
SYR PASS CATCHERSn=2180% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JUSTUS ROSS-SIMMONSWRRET
564TH YR——★3+27 2025
COLE WEAVERWRPORTAL · MIAMI (OH)
553RD YR8664★3+6
DAVID CLEMENTTERET
514TH YR2650★3—
DAUNTE BACHEYIETERET
502ND YR2465★3—
NOAH MEYERSTEPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
483RD YR8145★3+8
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM3% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PEYTON WATERSDBRET
522ND YR4064★3—
GREG SMITHDBRET
502ND YR6885★3+14
JALON THOMPSONDBRET
493RD YR—89★4—
KHRISTIAN DUNBAR-HAWKINSDBRET
492ND YR—45★3—
KENTON DOPSON IIIDBTRUE FR
481ST YR1495★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SYR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNC
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
50.7
42.7
— OFFENSE
53.1
46.0
— DEFENSE
48.3
39.5
SP+ OVERALL
1.7
6.4
FPI
0.6
4.9
ELO
1290
1396
TALENT
746
768
PRODUCTION
45
60
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+25
+25
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.21
0.27
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SYR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNC
OFF EFFICIENCY
19
18
DEF EFFICIENCY
13
51
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
20
15
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
24
70
FINISHING DRIVES
25
25
FIELD POSITION
81
46
TURNOVER MARGIN
12
22
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SYR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNC
PASS RATE
53.3%
50.9%
PACE
23.4s
30.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
56.8%
54.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
73.7%
61.8%
PLAYS / GAME
77.0
58.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.3%
3.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SYR, ORANGE = UNC) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE