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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›IU @ MICH›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
INDIANA
MICHIGAN
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|MICHIGAN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP20|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#5AP
6FPI
IUB1GINDIANA
2-0
73
97
97
17%
5
64
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
22FPI
MICHB1GMICHIGAN
2-0
93
81
69
69%
2
74
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IU49CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
98
PROE
43
TEMPO
5
EXPLOSIVE98p
98
PROE43p
43
TEMPO5p
5
MICH31CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
69
PROE
21
TEMPO
2
EXPLOSIVE69p
69
PROE21p
21
TEMPO2p
2
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
IURECORD MATCHES
13-0ACTUALvs12.5-0.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+31.1
INDIANA won 13 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 12.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MICHRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.6-3.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.9
MICHIGAN won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERINDIANAMICHIGAN2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Fernando MendozaDRAFTED · 94% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlberto MendozaPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE90%Riley NowakowskiDRAFTED · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOmar Cooper Jr.DRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah SarrattDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB84%Roman HembyRB · 47% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKaelon BlackDRAFTED · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB53%D'Angelo PondsDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLouis MooreDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevan BoykinDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL47%Mikail KamaraDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHosea WheelerPORTAL · BAYLOR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDominique RatcliffDL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL41%Pat CooganDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKahlil BensonOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZen MichalskiOL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB33%Aiden FisherDRAFTED · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJosh Hoover · PORTAL ★4 · TCUREFILLED
WR/TENick Marsh · PORTAL ★4 · MICHIGAN STATEShazz Preston · PORTAL ★3 · TULANEParker Elmore · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
RBTurbo Richard · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGEPARTIAL
DBA.J. Harris · PORTAL ★4 · PENN STATEKasmir Hicks · SIGNEE ★4D'Montae Tims · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLTobi Osunsanmi · PORTAL ★4 · KANSAS STATEJoshua Burnham · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAMEGabe Hill · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJoe Brunner · PORTAL ★4 · WISCONSINBen Novak · SIGNEE ★3Sam Simpson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBJa'Dyn Williams · SIGNEE ★4Trevor Gibbs · SIGNEE ★3Jacob Savage · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · INDIANA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
47.672 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
38.252 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
53.682 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB696998051 OF 5 GRADED
RB6464604452 OF 5 GRADED
WR/TE79797539208 OF 20 GRADED
OL70706379169 OF 16 GRADED
DL828263491910 OF 19 GRADED
LB76766192117 OF 11 GRADED
DB757574741911 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE73rd73
BLUE-CHIP RATIO23%73
RECRUITING CLASS#29 · 7/23 BC79
CLASS RANK TREND+36 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+3 · 17 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MICHKYLE WHITTINGHAMFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2828
PACE
6060
PASS RATE
1717
EXPLOSIVENESS
2525
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7171
HAVOC
9090
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
IUCURT CIGNETTI3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6666
PACE
7474
PASS RATE
2121
EXPLOSIVENESS
2828
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4343
HAVOC
100100
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESIU OFFENSEMICH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBINDIANA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
19OF 138
TAL
98
PERF
69
RET
0
NATIONAL
45OF 136
RET
12
FULL DEFENSEMICHIGAN DEFENSE
IU QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOSH HOOVERQBPORTAL · TCU
674TH YR9998★4+20
TYLER CHERRYQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—91★4—
GRANT WILSONQBRET
444TH YR7728★3-22
JACOB BELLQBRET
351ST YR—39★3—
MAVERICK GESKEQBRET
321ST YR—9★2—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS46% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5275%63%
LINEBACKERSLB
6117%21%
SECONDARYDB
6456%57%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLINDIANA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
12OF 138
TAL
63
PERF
70
RET
79
DL
61OF 138
DL RET
75
LB
26OF 138
LB RET
17
FRONT-7MICHIGAN DEFENSE
IU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1621% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CARTER SMITHOLRET
854TH YR—85★3+0 2025
DREW EVANSOLRET
714TH YR—2★2+33 2025
ADEDAMOLA AJANIOLRET
582ND YR—70★3-3 2025
BRAY LYNCHOLRET
584TH YR—61★3+13 2025
JOE BRUNNEROLPORTAL · WISCONSIN
574TH YR—98★4+21 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS48% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOHN HENRY DALEYDEPORTAL · UTAH
904TH YR7798★4+55
TREY PIERCEDTRET
754TH YR7880★3-30
DOMINIC NICHOLSDERET
683RD YR5482★3—
JONAH LEA'EADTTRUE FR
664TH YR8158★3-31
ENOW ETTADTRET
554TH YR6695★40
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBINDIANA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
22OF 138
TAL
60
PERF
64
RET
44
DL
61OF 138
DL RET
75
LB
26OF 138
LB RET
17
FRONT-7MICHIGAN DEFENSE
IU RUNNING BACKSn=556% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LEE BEEBE JR.RBRET
614TH YR9328★3+16
TURBO RICHARDRBPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE
503RD YR8685★3-7
SEAN CUONORBRET
411ST YR—75★3—
JAYREON CAMPBELLRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—71★3—
KHOBIE MARTINRBRET
562ND YR—55★3+30 2025
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS51% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555275%63%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456117%21%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEINDIANA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
1OF 138
TAL
75
PERF
79
RET
39
DB
14OF 138
DB RET
56
SECONDARYMICHIGAN DEFENSE
IU PASS CATCHERSn=2061% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SHAZZ PRESTONWRPORTAL · TULANE
694TH YR7989★3+26
CHARLIE BECKERWRRET
683RD YR6070★3+38
NICK MARSHWRPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
603RD YR9699★4+9
DAVION CHANDLERWRRET
522ND YR1179★3—
BROCK SCHOTTTEPORTAL · MIAMI
501ST YR878★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM44% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHRIS BRACYSPORTAL · MEMPHIS
503RD YR9145★3-12
JYAIRE HILLCBRET
474TH YR9694★4-9
ROD MOORESRET
474TH YR9679★3+18
ZEKE BERRYCBRET
474TH YR9578★3-24
SMITH SNOWDENCBPORTAL · UTAH
474TH YR9797★4-20
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
IU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MICH
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
50.0
45.8
— OFFENSE
63.3
47.2
— DEFENSE
36.7
44.3
SP+ OVERALL
25.4
13.8
FPI
25.3
14.4
ELO
2132
1702
TALENT
735
890
PRODUCTION
97
90
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−47
+3
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.23
0.53
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
IU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MICH
OFF EFFICIENCY
98
76
DEF EFFICIENCY
96
49
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
46
6
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
15
94
FINISHING DRIVES
98
56
FIELD POSITION
21
18
TURNOVER MARGIN
100
73
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
IU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MICH
PASS RATE
31.1%
41.2%
PACE
34.0s
35.3s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
77.1%
66.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
47.2%
57.6%
PLAYS / GAME
53.0
51.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
6.6%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = IU, ORANGE = MICH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE