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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›RUTG @ NU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
RUTGERS
NORTHWESTERN
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|RYAN FIELDCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
90FPI
RUTGB1GRUTGERS
0-3
66
88
8
44%
37
72
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
33FPI
NUB1GNORTHWESTERN
2-0
57
56
59
89%
33
88
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
RUTG60CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
89
PROE
54
TEMPO
37
EXPLOSIVE89p
89
PROE54p
54
TEMPO37p
37
NU38CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
49
PROE
33
TEMPO
33
EXPLOSIVE49p
49
PROE33p
33
TEMPO33p
33
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
RUTGRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.3-6.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.2
RUTGERS won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.6
NORTHWESTERN won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERRUTGERSNORTHWESTERN2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB97%Athan KaliakmanisDRAFTED · 97% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB77%Jett EladDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam MillerDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacobie HendersonPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL71%Eric O'NeillDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBradley WeaverDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan ThompsonDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE69%DT SheffieldWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKenny Fletcher Jr.TE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIan StrongPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL56%Bryan FelterOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGus ZilinskasOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTaj WhiteOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB54%Dariel DjabomeLB · 47% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSam RobinsonPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB10%CJ Campbell Jr.PORTAL · DUKE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBXavier Stearn · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBDevonte Anderson · SIGNEE ★4Messiah Tilson · SIGNEE ★4Brandon Murray · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DLRinaldo Callaway III · SIGNEE ★4Reece Beck · SIGNEE ★3Jermaine Polk · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEDyzier Carter · SIGNEE ★4Elias Coke · SIGNEE ★3DJ Howerton · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLJared Smith · SIGNEE ★3Logan Anthony · SIGNEE ★3James Cocozzo · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
LBJoey Kopec · SIGNEE ★3Tanner Raymond · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBAiden Gibson · SIGNEE ★4Michael Dukes III · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · RUTGERS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
32.429 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
36.347 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
29.419 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3030692352 OF 5 GRADED
RB7171656782 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE51517464238 OF 23 GRADED
OL535351100266 OF 26 GRADED
DL454551352112 OF 21 GRADED
LB32327053142 OF 14 GRADED
DB46466156298 OF 29 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE66th66
BLUE-CHIP RATIO15%63
RECRUITING CLASS#36 · 6/26 BC74
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 15 IN / 15 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 7th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NUDAVID BRAUN4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6060
PACE
2121
PASS RATE
6666
EXPLOSIVENESS
1616
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2424
HAVOC
4242
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
RUTGGREG SCHIANO7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2020
PACE
4646
PASS RATE
1818
EXPLOSIVENESS
1010
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6161
HAVOC
2626
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESRUTG OFFENSENU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBRUTGERS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
130OF 138
TAL
69
PERF
30
RET
23
NATIONAL
58OF 136
RET
14
FULL DEFENSENORTHWESTERN DEFENSE
RUTG QUARTERBACKSn=577% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AJ SURACEQBRET
503RD YR2586★4—
DYLAN LONERGANQBPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE
474TH YR6864★3+21
SEAN ASHENFELDERQBRET
382ND YR—59★3—
XAVIER STEARNQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—80★3—
ROCCO RAINONEQBRET
303RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 60 PLAYERS24% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5270%4%
LINEBACKERSLB
4148%14%
SECONDARYDB
5088%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLRUTGERS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
67OF 138
TAL
51
PERF
53
RET
100
DL
61OF 138
DL RET
70
LB
95OF 138
LB RET
48
FRONT-7NORTHWESTERN DEFENSE
RUTG OFFENSIVE LINEn=260% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TERRENCE SALAMIOLRET
494TH YR56—UNR—
KWABENA ASAMOAHOLRET
834TH YR9874★3+20
TYLER NEEDHAMOLRET
574TH YR9364★3-31
JUSTIN CESAIREOLRET
524TH YR—64★3—
EVERETT SMALLOLPORTAL · EASTERN MICHIGAN
503RD YR—45★3-34 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NU FRONT-7n=38 · 2 ROOMS38% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MICHAEL KILBANEDLRET
784TH YR—80★3+22 2025
JAMAAL JOHNSONDLPORTAL · UCF
534TH YR6928★3-22
BRAYDON BRUSLBRET
534TH YR8876★3+2
CADEN O'ROURKEDLRET
521ST YR2272★3—
MASON MAYNEDLRET
521ST YR—70★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBRUTGERS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
10OF 138
TAL
65
PERF
71
RET
67
DL
61OF 138
DL RET
70
LB
95OF 138
LB RET
48
FRONT-7NORTHWESTERN DEFENSE
RUTG RUNNING BACKSn=833% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTWAN RAYMONDRBRET
773RD YR9774★3-5
CLAY THEVENINRBPORTAL · LOUISIANA TECH
594TH YR7545★3+27
JA'SHON BENJAMINRBRET
544TH YR—55★3-13 2025
EDD GUERRIERRBRET
503RD YR—59★3—
TERRELL MITCHELLRBRET
472ND YR—66★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 38 PLAYERS40% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555270%4%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454148%14%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TERUTGERS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
64OF 138
TAL
74
PERF
51
RET
64
DB
76OF 138
DB RET
88
SECONDARYNORTHWESTERN DEFENSE
RUTG PASS CATCHERSn=2336% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KJ DUFFWRRET
863RD YR9890★4+28
VERNON ALLEN IIIWRRET
492ND YR2672★3—
LOGAN BLAKETERET
484TH YR4953★3-44
JOURDIN HOUSTONWRRET
452ND YR3281★3—
BEN BLACK IIIWRRET
453RD YR7063★3-2
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM12% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ROBERT FITZGERALDDBRET
934TH YR9472★3+46
DAMON WALTERSDBRET
813RD YR6781★3+32
BRADEN TURNERDBRET
584TH YR9152★3-22
JON JON STEVENS JR.DBRET
522ND YR4268★3—
MONTAE PATEDBTRUE FR
504TH YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
RUTG
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
36.0
41.8
— OFFENSE
39.8
40.2
— DEFENSE
32.1
43.4
SP+ OVERALL
-2.8
7.8
FPI
-5.6
9.3
ELO
1391
1625
TALENT
709
688
PRODUCTION
56
64
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+4
−3
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.15
0.08
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
RUTG
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NU
OFF EFFICIENCY
81
56
DEF EFFICIENCY
6
10
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
41
19
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
13
87
FINISHING DRIVES
30
25
FIELD POSITION
74
61
TURNOVER MARGIN
68
19
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
RUTG
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NU
PASS RATE
53.7%
38.1%
PACE
28.4s
28.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
54.5%
65.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
73.2%
46.1%
PLAYS / GAME
63.3
63.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
4.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = RUTG, ORANGE = NU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE