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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›USC @ WIS›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
USC
WISCONSIN
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|CAMP RANDALL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP15|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#14AP
10FPI
USCB1GUSC
3-0
94
99
47
59%
76
96
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
56FPI
WISB1GWISCONSIN
1-1
79
29
81
31%
17
53
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
USC57CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
19
PROE
77
TEMPO
76
EXPLOSIVE19p
19
PROE77p
77
TEMPO76p
76
WIS38CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
85
PROE
12
TEMPO
17
EXPLOSIVE85p
85
PROE12p
12
TEMPO17p
17
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
USCRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.1-2.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+14.1
USC won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
WISRECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs2.7-9.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.8
WISCONSIN won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUSCWISCONSIN2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE80%Lake McReeTE · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMakai LemonDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJa'Kobi LaneDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB53%DeCarlos NicholsonCB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBishop FitzgeraldS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKamari RamseyDRAFTED · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL44%Anthony LucasDE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevan ThompkinsPORTAL · ALABAMA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeeshawn SilverDT · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB38%Eric GentryLB · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB28%Eli SandersRB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryan Jackson IIPORTAL · WISCONSIN · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL21%J'Onre ReedOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMicah BanuelosOL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB5%Husan LongstreetPORTAL · LSU · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TETerrell Anderson · PORTAL ★4 · NC STATEMark Bowman · SIGNEE ★5Ethan Feaster · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJontez Williams · PORTAL ★4 · IOWA STATEElbert Hill IV · SIGNEE ★4Brandon Lockhart · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLZuriah Fisher · PORTAL ★4 · PENN STATELuke Wafle · SIGNEE ★5Jaimeon Winfield · SIGNEE ★54 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBTalanoa Ili · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
RBDeshonne Redeaux · SIGNEE ★4Shahn Alston · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLKeenyi Pepe · SIGNEE ★4Vlad Dyakonov · SIGNEE ★4Esun Tafa · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBJonas Williams · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · USC
CARRIED COMPOSITE
52.285 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
50.175 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
53.481 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7171937862 OF 6 GRADED
RB5252528185 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE717189442612 OF 26 GRADED
OL505076852212 OF 22 GRADED
DL606090482111 OF 21 GRADED
LB51518365135 OF 13 GRADED
DB606086642214 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE94th94
BLUE-CHIP RATIO56%93
RECRUITING CLASS#1 · 22/34 BC100
CLASS RANK TREND+16 · 3 CYCLES82
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 9 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
WISLUKE FICKELL4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5252
PACE
2424
PASS RATE
5353
EXPLOSIVENESS
1515
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2525
HAVOC
3434
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
USCLINCOLN RILEY5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9797
PACE
5353
PASS RATE
8888
EXPLOSIVENESS
9393
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6767
HAVOC
4040
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUSC OFFENSEWIS OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUSC OFFENSE
NATIONAL
14OF 138
TAL
93
PERF
71
RET
78
NATIONAL
54OF 136
RET
13
FULL DEFENSEWISCONSIN DEFENSE
USC QUARTERBACKSn=622% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAYDEN MAIAVAQBRET
844TH YR9692★4+25
JONAS WILLIAMSQBTRUE FR
491ST YR2196★4—
SAM HUARDQBRET
384TH YR—28★3-52 2025
JAMES JOHNSONQBTRUE FR
371ST YR—45★3—
ALEX MEDYNQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—34★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WIS DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS48% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
7350%8%
LINEBACKERSLB
7589%36%
SECONDARYDB
4840%21%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUSC OFFENSE
NATIONAL
79OF 138
TAL
76
PERF
50
RET
85
DL
8OF 138
DL RET
50
LB
6OF 138
LB RET
89
FRONT-7WISCONSIN DEFENSE
USC OFFENSIVE LINEn=2215% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AARON DUNNOLRET
491ST YR2894★4—
CHASE DENIZOLTRUE FR
351ST YR—70★3—
ELIJAH PAIGEOLRET
673RD YR8692★4-25 2025
JUSTIN TAUANUUOLRET
642ND YR7982★3-35
KILIAN O'CONNOROLRET
584TH YR——UNR+11 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WIS FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS34% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MASON POSALBRET
662ND YR6492★4+18
CHARLES PERKINSDLRET
524TH YR3785★3—
MICHEAL GARNERLBRET
524TH YR3085★3—
NICOLAS CLAYTONLBRET
522ND YR2092★4—
COOPER CATALANOLBRET
512ND YR6473★3+1
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUSC OFFENSE
NATIONAL
66OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
52
RET
81
DL
8OF 138
DL RET
50
LB
6OF 138
LB RET
89
FRONT-7WISCONSIN DEFENSE
USC RUNNING BACKSn=819% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WAYMOND JORDANRBRET
714TH YR65—UNR+27
KING MILLERRBRET
582ND YR8227★3+16
DESHONNE REDEAUXRBTRUE FR
521ST YR1197★4—
SHAHN ALSTONRBTRUE FR
501ST YR2496★4+34
RILEY WORMLEYRBRET
491ST YR1882★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WIS FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS32% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557350%8%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.457589%36%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUSC OFFENSE
NATIONAL
9OF 138
TAL
89
PERF
71
RET
44
DB
93OF 138
DB RET
40
SECONDARYWISCONSIN DEFENSE
USC PASS CATCHERSn=2656% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TERRELL ANDERSONWRPORTAL · NC STATE
663RD YR—99★4+18 2025
TANOOK HINESWRRET
652ND YR6885★4+26
KAYDEN DIXON-WYATTWRTRUE FR
521ST YR2498★4—
TRENT MOSLEYWRTRUE FR
521ST YR2491★4+30
WALTER MATTHEWSTERET
522ND YR893★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WIS SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM60% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARVIN BURKS JR.SPORTAL · MISSOURI
704TH YR9678★3+1
MATTHEW JUNGSRET
504TH YR78—UNR+20
JAVAN ROBINSONCBPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
504TH YR9864★3-33
CAI BATESCBPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
492ND YR—64★3—
BRYCE WESTCBPORTAL · OHIO STATE
482ND YR4564★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
USC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WIS
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
51.3
40.8
— OFFENSE
58.2
39.9
— DEFENSE
44.4
41.6
SP+ OVERALL
19.5
1.9
FPI
18.4
2.6
ELO
1837
1455
TALENT
899
768
PRODUCTION
92
61
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−4
+20
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.56
0.29
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
USC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WIS
OFF EFFICIENCY
94
11
DEF EFFICIENCY
14
16
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
85
25
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
86
93
FINISHING DRIVES
91
1
FIELD POSITION
88
66
TURNOVER MARGIN
68
2
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
USC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WIS
PASS RATE
45.5%
46.9%
PACE
25.6s
31.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
61.6%
58.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
70.2%
57.9%
PLAYS / GAME
70.3
56.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.5%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = USC, ORANGE = WIS) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE