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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›USU @ TXST›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
UTAH STATE
TEXAS STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 19:30 ET|BOBCAT STADIUM (TX)NONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP30|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
95FPI
USUPACUTAH STATE
0-2
11
42
51
65%
79
45
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
102FPI
TXSTPACTEXAS STATE
0-2
41
75
14
76%
79
50
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
USU74CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
74
PROE
69
TEMPO
79
EXPLOSIVE74p
74
PROE69p
69
TEMPO79p
79
TXST38CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
14
PROE
20
TEMPO
79
EXPLOSIVE14p
14
PROE20p
20
TEMPO79p
79
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
USURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.8-5.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.5
UTAH STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TXSTRECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.5
TEXAS STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUTAH STATETEXAS STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE50%Brady BoydWR · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBraden PeganPORTAL · UTAH · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB43%Miles DavisRB · 43% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB30%Noah AvingerCB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoah FloresPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL20%Jr SiaOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB16%Will HolmesPORTAL · ILLINOIS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%CJ TillerPORTAL · UTAH TECH · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DL0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEEli Wood · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIAJavon Robinson · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA STATEL.J. Johnson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBSesi Vailahi · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEREFILLED
DBAntonio Bluiett · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH DAKOTADavid Kabongo · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEMarkie Grant · PORTAL ★3 · WYOMING2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLLuke Baker · SIGNEE ★3Easton Hammond · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBHarrison Taggart · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIABrody Flores · SIGNEE ★3John McClellan · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBKaleb Maryland · SIGNEE ★3Brady Goodman · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DLNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UTAH STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
80.3100 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
76.299 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
82.1100 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB444433072 OF 7 GRADED
RB53531810083 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE3838331727CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL333315026CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL26269100152 OF 15 GRADED
LB42425834307 OF 30 GRADED
DB43433339256 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE11th11
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%25
RECRUITING CLASS#97 · 0/20 BC28
CLASS RANK TREND+24 · 3 CYCLES98
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 29 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TXSTG.J. KINNE4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4242
PACE
9393
PASS RATE
2424
EXPLOSIVENESS
6060
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8888
HAVOC
8585
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
USUBRONCO MENDENHALL2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6161
PACE
4242
PASS RATE
5858
EXPLOSIVENESS
7373
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2222
HAVOC
99
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUSU OFFENSETXST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUTAH STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
98OF 138
TAL
33
PERF
44
RET
0
NATIONAL
104OF 136
RET
23
FULL DEFENSETEXAS STATE DEFENSE
USU QUARTERBACKSn=7100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GRADY BROSTERHOUSQBPORTAL · VIRGINIA
504TH YR29★3—
MCCAE HILLSTEADQBPORTAL · BYU
423RD YR5745★3-32
BRYSON BARNESQBRET
624TH YR—64★3+1 2025
JACOB CONOVERQBRET
494TH YR—28★3-46 2025
KALEB MARYLANDQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS37% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4854%4%
LINEBACKERSLB
4071%10%
SECONDARYDB
4865%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUTAH STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
126OF 138
TAL
15
PERF
33
RET
0
DL
77OF 138
DL RET
54
LB
100OF 138
LB RET
71
FRONT-7TEXAS STATE DEFENSE
USU OFFENSIVE LINEn=26100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SETH WILFREDOLPORTAL · AUBURN
423RD YR——★3—
JACKSON NELSONOLRET
401ST YR948★3—
JOHN RANDLE JR.OLPORTAL · PURDUE
492ND YR——★3—
JIMMY LISTONOLRET
494TH YR—0★2+19 2025
GEORGE MAILEOLRET
483RD YR—45★3+15 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST FRONT-7n=35 · 2 ROOMS39% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TREYLIN PAYNELBRET
614TH YR9345★3-4
JAVANTE MACKEYLBPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE
583RD YR8945★3-35
TAE WOODYDLPORTAL · UL MONROE
554TH YR5328★3—
JAYLEN HARRISDLTRUE FR
524TH YR2—UNR—
TJ BURKHALTERLBRET
521ST YR1671★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUTAH STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
59OF 138
TAL
18
PERF
53
RET
100
DL
77OF 138
DL RET
54
LB
100OF 138
LB RET
71
FRONT-7TEXAS STATE DEFENSE
USU RUNNING BACKSn=80% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAVEN JACOBSRBRET
653RD YR6517★3+23
NOAH WHITERBRET
521ST YR39—UNR-56
SESI VAILAHIRBPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
423RD YR——★3-33 2025
NEHEMIAH WASHINGTONRBRET
381ST YR134★3—
RAVIAN LARRYRBRET
381ST YR—35★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS38% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554854%4%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454071%10%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUTAH STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
121OF 138
TAL
33
PERF
38
RET
17
DB
89OF 138
DB RET
65
SECONDARYTEXAS STATE DEFENSE
USU PASS CATCHERSn=2783% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KACHE KAIOTERET
532ND YR——UNR—
JAVON ROBINSONWRPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE
494TH YR8445★3-4
ANTHONY GARCIAWRRET
474TH YR1228★3—
DEMICK STARLINGWRRET
454TH YR609★3+32
NIKKO BONCOREWRRET
441ST YR2352★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST SECONDARYn=17 · 1 ROOM35% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TREZ MOOREDBRET
584TH YR7017★3-5
JAYDEN BRADLEYDBRET
521ST YR1652★3—
JAYDEN LAWTONDBTRUE FR
494TH YR251★3—
CRAIG ROYAL JR.DBRET
484TH YR59—UNR+33
RYAN NOLANDBRET
474TH YR9445★2+32
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
USU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
40.8
45.1
— OFFENSE
37.4
54.2
— DEFENSE
44.3
36.0
SP+ OVERALL
-7.1
-6.5
FPI
-6.8
-8.3
ELO
1381
1438
TALENT
544
625
PRODUCTION
31
45
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−10
−8
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.04
0.04
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
USU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
OFF EFFICIENCY
38
79
DEF EFFICIENCY
35
56
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
88
87
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
43
26
FINISHING DRIVES
77
73
FIELD POSITION
69
85
TURNOVER MARGIN
67
37
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
USU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
PASS RATE
52.1%
40.1%
PACE
25.4s
25.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
53.2%
68.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
62.5%
72.4%
PLAYS / GAME
71.0
71.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
5.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = USU, ORANGE = TXST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE