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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›HAW @ NIU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
HAWAI'I
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|HUSKIE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP8|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
103FPI
HAWMWCHAWAI'I
1-2
17
47
47
65%
90
25
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
132FPI
NIUMWCNORTHERN ILLINOIS
0-2
9
3
26
44%
24
34
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
HAW75CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
37
PROE
99
TEMPO
90
EXPLOSIVE37p
37
PROE99p
99
TEMPO90p
90
NIU10CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
2
PROE
3
TEMPO
24
EXPLOSIVE2p
2
PROE3p
3
TEMPO24p
24
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
HAWRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.0
HAWAI'I won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NIURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.6-8.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.3
NORTHERN ILLINOIS won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERHAWAI'INORTHERN ILLINOIS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB73%Peter ManumaDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKilinahe Mendiola-JensenDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaheim Wilson-JonesDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL66%De'Jon BentonDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQwyn WilliamsDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJackie Johnson IIIDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB65%Landon SimsRB · 55% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian VaughnRB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE57%Karsyn PupunuWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJackson HarrisPORTAL · LSU · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon WhitePORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB55%Jalen SmithLB · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGiovanni IovinoLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL53%James MilovaleOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZhen SoteloOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKuao PeihopaOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB21%Luke WeaverPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBJeremiah Hughes · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEJoenel Figueroa · PORTAL ★3 · WEST GEORGIAMarquis Richardson · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLOzzy Pollard · PORTAL ★3 · MARIAN COLLEGEOzzy Pollard · PORTAL ★3 · MARIANAdam Tomczyk · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBDeVon Rice · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS STATEREFILLED
WR/TETre' Griffiths · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATECarson Brown · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATEDevin Alves · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA TECH3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
OLKhalil Walker · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH FLORIDALipe Moala · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONAndrew Price · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
QBBjorn Jurgensen · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIAMaika Eugenio · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · HAWAI'I
CARRIED COMPOSITE
38.545 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
47.067 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
32.628 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3333499542 OF 4 GRADED
RB4747184663 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE373737312514 OF 25 GRADED
OL43432080196 OF 19 GRADED
DL535326521716 OF 17 GRADED
LB40405596135 OF 13 GRADED
DB45452476207 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE17th17
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%16
RECRUITING CLASS#124 · 0/17 BC8
CLASS RANK TREND-8 · 3 CYCLES34
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 16 IN / 9 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NIUROB HARLEYFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
HAWTIMMY CHANG5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9999
PACE
6262
PASS RATE
9999
EXPLOSIVENESS
4040
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4545
HAVOC
3131
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESHAW OFFENSENIU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBHAWAI'I OFFENSE
NATIONAL
127OF 138
TAL
49
PERF
33
RET
95
NATIONAL
122OF 136
RET
11
FULL DEFENSENORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE
HAW QUARTERBACKSn=45% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MICAH ALEJADOQBRET
542ND YR8548★3+11
BJORN JURGENSENQBPORTAL · VIRGINIA
441ST YR1064★3—
ISAAC JARAMILLA-PHEQBTRUE FR
304TH YR——UNR—
HAZYN BOTELHOQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS67% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
2261%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
397%0%
SECONDARYDB
4928%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLHAWAI'I OFFENSE
NATIONAL
99OF 138
TAL
20
PERF
43
RET
80
DL
135OF 138
DL RET
61
LB
104OF 138
LB RET
7
FRONT-7NORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE
HAW OFFENSIVE LINEn=1920% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ETHAN SPENCEROLRET
514TH YR8410★2+35 2025
LAUTAIMI MANUMAOLRET
502ND YR21—UNR—
DENARIS DEROSA JR.OLTRUE FR
494TH YR—24★3—
DEAN BRISKIOLRET
454TH YR7816★3-34
LIPE MOALAOLPORTAL · OREGON
433RD YR5028★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS61% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AMARI WASHINGTONDTRET
521ST YR3332★3—
MONTREL CANIONDTRET
521ST YR2713★2—
MATTHEW SCARLETTDTTRUE FR
523RD YR9—UNR—
JORDAN BELLAMYDTRET
511ST YR1934★3—
KOLE SNEEDDETRUE FR
503RD YR9—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBHAWAI'I OFFENSE
NATIONAL
101OF 138
TAL
18
PERF
47
RET
46
DL
135OF 138
DL RET
61
LB
104OF 138
LB RET
7
FRONT-7NORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE
HAW RUNNING BACKSn=654% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SITANI MIKAELERBRET
502ND YR27—UNR-42
DEVON RICERBPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
482ND YR4917★3+0
CAM BARFIELDRBRET
464TH YR7728★3+18
TJ FO'ILEFUTURBTRUE FR
351ST YR—27★3—
JAMES STEFFANY-FIAMERBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS63% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552261%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.45397%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEHAWAI'I OFFENSE
NATIONAL
125OF 138
TAL
37
PERF
37
RET
31
DB
82OF 138
DB RET
28
SECONDARYNORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE
HAW PASS CATCHERSn=2569% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KAINOA CARVALHOWRRET
521ST YR2151★3—
JOSIAH FETUIWRRET
522ND YR11—UNR—
DEVIN ALVESWRPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH
484TH YR4317★3—
TRE' GRIFFITHSWRPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
472ND YR2945★3—
BLAZE KAMOKUWRRET
474TH YR51—UNR-27
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM72% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALIK ARMSTRONGSRET
504TH YR3313★2—
AVERY JONESDBPORTAL · LAFAYETTE
504TH YR1228★3—
AARON WARRENDBTRUE FR
504TH YR9—UNR—
ANDRUW ELLISSRET
501ST YR952★3—
LIAM LINDOCBTRUE FR
504TH YR1145★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
HAW
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NIU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
40.8
43.5
— OFFENSE
43.3
42.6
— DEFENSE
38.3
44.5
SP+ OVERALL
-5.8
-16.9
FPI
-8.3
-17.9
ELO
1432
1245
TALENT
557
537
PRODUCTION
40
11
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−32
−7
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.03
0.00
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
HAW
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NIU
OFF EFFICIENCY
37
4
DEF EFFICIENCY
46
20
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
81
51
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
38
82
FINISHING DRIVES
61
18
FIELD POSITION
36
87
TURNOVER MARGIN
18
44
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
HAW
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NIU
PASS RATE
67.3%
51.7%
PACE
24.6s
30.5s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
40.0%
61.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
78.8%
81.1%
PLAYS / GAME
73.3
59.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
6.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = HAW, ORANGE = NIU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE