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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›SJSU @ NEV›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
SAN JOSÉ STATE
NEVADA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 17:00 ET|MACKAY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP6|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
116FPI
SJSUMWCSAN JOSÉ STATE
2-1
20
53
16
4%
69
47
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
88FPI
NEVMWCNEVADA
1-1
15
15
33
36%
37
49
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
SJSU74CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
57
PROE
97
TEMPO
69
EXPLOSIVE57p
57
PROE97p
97
TEMPO69p
69
NEV40CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
72
PROE
11
TEMPO
37
EXPLOSIVE72p
72
PROE11p
11
TEMPO37p
37
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
SJSURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.3-8.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.1
SAN JOSÉ STATE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NEVRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.1-8.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-9.9
NEVADA won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSAN JOSÉ STATENEVADA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB98%Isiah RevisDB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylen ThomasPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen BainerCB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB97%Walker EgetPORTAL · DUKE · 89% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXavier WardQB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE95%Danny ScuderoPORTAL · COLORADO · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLeland SmithWR · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKyri ShoelsPORTAL · UTAH · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB83%Noah McNeal-FranklinLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan PollardLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTaniela LatuLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB81%Steve Chavez-SotoPORTAL · UTAH · 39% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLamar RadcliffeRB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFloyd Chalk IVPORTAL · SOUTHERN UTAH · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL58%Peseti LapuahoOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSione NomaniOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuincy LikioOL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL43%Vili TaufatofuaDL · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJireh MoePORTAL · UTAH · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBIsaiah Buxton · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATEBrian Dukes Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · CAL POLYAgenhart Ellis IV · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIA LUTHERAN UNIVERSITY1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBDaniel Rolovich · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEAnthony Ivey · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATECarson Clark · SIGNEE ★3Devin Olmande · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
LBSkylar Tiatia · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBCourshawn Hill · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBrian Tapu · PORTAL ★3 · NEBRASKAIkinasio Tupou · PORTAL ★3 · BYULavaka Taukeiaho · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJayland McGlothen · PORTAL ★3 · SACRAMENTO STATEBronx Letuligasenoa · SIGNEE ★3Joseph Terry · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SAN JOSÉ STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
21.89 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
32.439 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
15.48 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5959—051 OF 5 GRADED
RB5050529473 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE434354282011 OF 20 GRADED
OL46463187189 OF 18 GRADED
DL38383763149 OF 14 GRADED
LB36363983157 OF 15 GRADED
DB40406011710 OF 17 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE20th20
BLUE-CHIP RATIO5%26
RECRUITING CLASS#129 · 0/16 BC4
CLASS RANK TREND-25 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 17 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NEVJEFF CHOATE3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1212
PACE
77
PASS RATE
2626
EXPLOSIVENESS
2424
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7878
HAVOC
1515
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SJSUKEN NIUMATALOLO3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2929
PACE
4848
PASS RATE
3636
EXPLOSIVENESS
5151
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5555
HAVOC
6767
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSJSU OFFENSENEV OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSAN JOSÉ STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
47OF 138
TAL
—
PERF
59
RET
0
NATIONAL
107OF 136
RET
23
FULL DEFENSENEVADA DEFENSE
SJSU QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LUKE WEAVERQBPORTAL · HAWAI'I
514TH YR58—★3-14
ROBERT MCDANIELQBRET
451ST YR—45★3—
DANIEL ROLOVICHQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—58★3—
CJ LEEQBRET
352ND YR—25★3—
HUDSON WYATTQBTRUE FR
303RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS49% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4083%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
3842%0%
SECONDARYDB
4838%10%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSAN JOSÉ STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
92OF 138
TAL
31
PERF
46
RET
87
DL
106OF 138
DL RET
83
LB
106OF 138
LB RET
42
FRONT-7NEVADA DEFENSE
SJSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1813% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SIMEON AFALAVAOLRET
534TH YR34—UNR—
SIMEON AFALAVAOLRET
534TH YR34—UNR—
LAVAKA TAUKEIAHOOLPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
524TH YR1545★3—
DANIEL MOLENIOLRET
484TH YR60—UNR—
TYLER CHENOLRET
473RD YR8017★3+8
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS33% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DYLAN LABARBERAEDGERET
904TH YR87—UNR+49
DAVID PAINE JR.DLRET
562ND YR46—UNR—
POASA UTULBPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
523RD YR4028★3—
JEREMY NABORNE-OWENSLBTRUE FR
504TH YR19—UNR—
JAMES GILLESPIEDTPORTAL · SACRAMENTO STATE
484TH YR4958★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSAN JOSÉ STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
81OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
50
RET
94
DL
106OF 138
DL RET
83
LB
106OF 138
LB RET
42
FRONT-7NEVADA DEFENSE
SJSU RUNNING BACKSn=76% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
VILIAMI TEURBRET
503RD YR3618★3-30
JABARI BATESRBRET
464TH YR7455★3-16
TYLER JACKLICHRBPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
453RD YR209★3—
ISAIAH CARLSONRBTRUE FR
443RD YR1477★3—
SIR AUTRYRBRET
471ST YR—29★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS35% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554083%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453842%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESAN JOSÉ STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
101OF 138
TAL
54
PERF
43
RET
28
DB
94OF 138
DB RET
38
SECONDARYNEVADA DEFENSE
SJSU PASS CATCHERSn=2072% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CARSON CLARKWRTRUE FR
541ST YR2566★3-15
KAMAEHU KOPA-KAAWALAUOLETERET
523RD YR826★3—
JASE NIXWRRET
521ST YR847★3—
JERRY MCCLUREWRPORTAL · SAN DIEGO STATE
513RD YR3788★3-35
DOMINIQUE MCKENZIEWRPORTAL · BYU
492ND YR2173★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM63% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BISHOP TURNERDBRET
513RD YR64—UNR+34
LARRY TURNER-GOODENDBTRUE FR
494TH YR6928★3+10
BRYSON SNELLINGDBRET
483RD YR529★2+7
JOSHUA SCOTTDBPORTAL · EASTERN MICHIGAN
474TH YR94—★3-21
AIDEN WALKERDBRET
462ND YR6352★3-7
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SJSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEV
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
43.0
43.3
— OFFENSE
45.5
42.1
— DEFENSE
40.4
44.6
SP+ OVERALL
-12.5
-7.6
FPI
-11.0
-5.1
ELO
1407
1451
TALENT
569
550
PRODUCTION
12
22
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+3
−3
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.05
0.03
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SJSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEV
OFF EFFICIENCY
58
12
DEF EFFICIENCY
39
37
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
55
33
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
36
72
FINISHING DRIVES
6
2
FIELD POSITION
88
27
TURNOVER MARGIN
7
3
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SJSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEV
PASS RATE
51.7%
38.9%
PACE
26.1s
28.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
51.9%
70.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
58.3%
58.5%
PLAYS / GAME
69.0
63.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
1.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SJSU, ORANGE = NEV) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE