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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›FAU @ UNT›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
NORTH TEXAS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
THU 19:30 ET|DATCU STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP2|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
115FPI
FAUAACFLORIDA ATLANTIC
1-1
29
49
18
68%
97
48
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
63FPI
UNTAACNORTH TEXAS
1-1
31
93
9
3%
54
27
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
FAU77CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
35
PROE
99
TEMPO
97
EXPLOSIVE35p
35
PROE99p
99
TEMPO97p
97
UNT75CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
87
PROE
84
TEMPO
54
EXPLOSIVE87p
87
PROE84p
84
TEMPO54p
54
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
FAURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.8
FLORIDA ATLANTIC won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UNTRECORD MATCHES
11-2ACTUALvs10.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+19.8
NORTH TEXAS won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERFLORIDA ATLANTICNORTH TEXAS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB62%Gemari SandsRB · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXavier TerrellPORTAL · NORTHERN IOWA · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL57%Scarlee JeanOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex AtcavageOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaughtry RichardsonOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE57%Jayshon PlattWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAsaad WaseemPORTAL · PURDUE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael KirchTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB44%Chris Keys Jr.S · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerez ReidDB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDillion WilliamsS · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL35%Bryce LangstonDT · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric Brantley Jr.PORTAL · MERCER · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB29%Tyler StolskyPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB9%Zach GibsonQB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBBrady Tillman III · PORTAL ★3 · EDWARD WATERSLeonard Farrow · PORTAL ★3 · FAIRMONT STATEREFILLED
OLBenjamin Galloway · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA TECHAlejandro Schmitt · SIGNEE ★3Aedyn Buchanan · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TERJ Garcia II · PORTAL ★3 · BOWLING GREENMarcus Vinson · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICOJahmari Powell-Wonson · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLAND4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJK Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEBo Simpson-Nealy · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN CAROLINAAmar Reynolds · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOIS4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLKenyon Garner · PORTAL ★3 · LIVINGSTONEJonathan Bax · PORTAL ★3 · TCUREFILLED
LBJoseph Sipp Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · KANSASREFILLED
QBDrew Devillier · PORTAL ★3 · RICEJeremiah Daoud · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
CARRIED COMPOSITE
53.086 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
43.158 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
60.292 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB57571710051 OF 5 GRADED
RB5151366174 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE48483450218 OF 21 GRADED
OL55553760215 OF 21 GRADED
DL43435979127 OF 12 GRADED
LB32323650104 OF 10 GRADED
DB515145543315 OF 33 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE29th29
BLUE-CHIP RATIO5%26
RECRUITING CLASS#130 · 0/11 BC3
CLASS RANK TREND-51 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 22 IN / 30 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UNTNEAL BROWNFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1616
PACE
8484
PASS RATE
1919
EXPLOSIVENESS
7373
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9797
HAVOC
3939
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
FAUZACH KITTLEY2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
100100
PACE
9898
PASS RATE
100100
EXPLOSIVENESS
9898
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
100100
HAVOC
1111
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESFAU OFFENSEUNT OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSE
NATIONAL
55OF 138
TAL
17
PERF
57
RET
100
NATIONAL
97OF 136
RET
5
FULL DEFENSENORTH TEXAS DEFENSE
FAU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CADEN VELTKAMPQBRET
504TH YR9717★3+29
DREW DEVILLIERQBPORTAL · RICE
483RD YR—55★3-49 2025
JORDAN MAGWOODQBRET
512ND YR—42★3—
JEREMIAH DAOUDQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—48★3—
MICHAEL VALENTINOQBRET
313RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNT DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS80% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3516%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
3513%11%
SECONDARYDB
4723%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSE
NATIONAL
55OF 138
TAL
37
PERF
55
RET
60
DL
119OF 138
DL RET
16
LB
113OF 138
LB RET
13
FRONT-7NORTH TEXAS DEFENSE
FAU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2140% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
VINCENT FIACABLEOLRET
644TH YR—60★3+42 2025
BEN GALLOWAYOLTRUE FR
524TH YR—68★3—
AIDEN JONESOLPORTAL · VMI
503RD YR—9★2—
JA'KAVION NONAROLRET
494TH YR—17★3-29 2025
BRADEN CUNNINGHAMOLRET
493RD YR—33★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNT FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS85% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZAKYE BARKERLBPORTAL · SMU
674TH YR8945★3+5
AARON ALEXANDERLBPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE
564TH YR7928★3+11
DAVION RHODESDLPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN
534TH YR—28★3+1 2025
BRAYDEN KNOXDLRET
522ND YR—50★3—
NOLAN CLARKDLTRUE FR
524TH YR6—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSE
NATIONAL
72OF 138
TAL
36
PERF
51
RET
61
DL
119OF 138
DL RET
16
LB
113OF 138
LB RET
13
FRONT-7NORTH TEXAS DEFENSE
FAU RUNNING BACKSn=739% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KADEN SHIELDS-DUTTONRBRET
613RD YR6454★3+13
LEONARD FARROWRBPORTAL · FAIRMONT STATE
524TH YR2217★3+17
BRADY TILLMAN IIIRBPORTAL · EDWARD WATERS
484TH YR528★3—
ETHAN ERVINRBRET
462ND YR3744★3-50
JOSHUA HARRIOTTRBRET
504TH YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNT FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS85% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553516%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453513%11%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSE
NATIONAL
78OF 138
TAL
34
PERF
48
RET
50
DB
101OF 138
DB RET
23
SECONDARYNORTH TEXAS DEFENSE
FAU PASS CATCHERSn=2150% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EASTON MESSERWRRET
724TH YR10028★3+26
AJ JOHNSONTETRUE FR
564TH YR—19★3—
BRANDEN HOCHWRRET
532ND YR4553★3+19
KELBY VALSINWRTRUE FR
514TH YR4078★3-25
TUCKER HOLLOWAYWRTRUE FR
504TH YR—64★3+20 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNT SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM77% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PEYTON TAYLORCBPORTAL · EMPORIA STATE
504TH YR664★3—
CJ COOMBESSTRUE FR
504TH YR17—UNR—
BRANDON JONESSPORTAL · MCNEESE
502ND YR1527★3—
CAMEREN JENKINSSPORTAL · BAYLOR
504TH YR6745★3-1
JADEN ALLENCBPORTAL · ARKANSAS
483RD YR1528★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
FAU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNT
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
39.5
40.9
— OFFENSE
45.8
53.6
— DEFENSE
33.2
28.3
SP+ OVERALL
-8.0
-8.1
FPI
-10.8
0.8
ELO
1226
1699
TALENT
593
602
PRODUCTION
34
23
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+8
+16
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.05
0.15
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
FAU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNT
OFF EFFICIENCY
28
99
DEF EFFICIENCY
28
44
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
95
75
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
30
60
FINISHING DRIVES
38
93
FIELD POSITION
25
2
TURNOVER MARGIN
0
91
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
FAU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNT
PASS RATE
54.7%
44.4%
PACE
22.4s
27.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
47.4%
62.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
59.6%
57.8%
PLAYS / GAME
80.5
66.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.6%
9.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = FAU, ORANGE = UNT) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE