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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›CAL @ NCSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
CALIFORNIA
NC STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|CARTER-FINLEY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
73FPI
CALACCCALIFORNIA
2-1
77
43
66
58%
86
58
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
61FPI
NCSUACCNC STATE
1-2
77
89
43
60%
48
53
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
CAL81CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
61
PROE
96
TEMPO
86
EXPLOSIVE61p
61
PROE96p
96
TEMPO86p
86
NCSU61CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
62
PROE
73
TEMPO
48
EXPLOSIVE62p
62
PROE73p
73
TEMPO48p
48
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
CALRECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs5.5-6.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.7
CALIFORNIA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NCSURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.3
NC STATE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCALIFORNIANC STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB97%Kendrick RaphaelPORTAL · SMU · 78% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLJ Johnson Jr.RB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon High Jr.PORTAL · UTSA · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL75%TJ Bush Jr.PORTAL · MINNESOTA · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAidan KeanaainaDL · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONT.J. BollersDL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB71%Luke FerrelliPORTAL · OLE MISS · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCade UluavePORTAL · BYU · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris VictorLB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE58%Jacob De JesusWR · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrond GrizzellWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeffrey JohnsonTE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB55%Hezekiah MassesDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrent AustinDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDru Polidore Jr.DB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL50%Jordan Spasojevic-MokoOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLeon BellOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBraden MillerOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB2%Devin BrownPORTAL · WEBER STATE · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBAdam Mohammed · PORTAL ★4 · WASHINGTONVictor Santino · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLJericho Johnson · PORTAL ★4 · OREGONSolomon Williams · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&MJustin Beadles · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBJD McKinley · SIGNEE ★3Jaxon Pyatt · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEChase Hendricks · PORTAL ★4 · OHIOIan Strong · PORTAL ★4 · RUTGERSDorian Thomas · PORTAL ★4 · NEW MEXICO4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBKingston Lopa · PORTAL ★4 · OREGONRicky Fletcher · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISSDaniel Harris · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLKahlee Tafai · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTADaniel McMorris · SIGNEE ★4Kamo'i Huihui-White · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBNainoa Lopes · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CALIFORNIA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
42.659 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
54.680 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
35.038 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5959928862 OF 6 GRADED
RB525290174 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE56567639217 OF 21 GRADED
OL52526072207 OF 20 GRADED
DL31317525156 OF 15 GRADED
LB36366033168 OF 16 GRADED
DB525270351910 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE77th77
BLUE-CHIP RATIO25%75
RECRUITING CLASS#56 · 2/18 BC59
CLASS RANK TREND-1 · 3 CYCLES48
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+2 · 32 IN / 36 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NCSUDAVE DOEREN11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6767
PACE
3434
PASS RATE
6363
EXPLOSIVENESS
6666
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1616
HAVOC
8686
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CALTOSH LUPOIFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCAL OFFENSENCSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCALIFORNIA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
50OF 138
TAL
92
PERF
59
RET
88
NATIONAL
53OF 136
RET
24
FULL DEFENSENC STATE DEFENSE
CAL QUARTERBACKSn=612% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JARON-KEAWE SAGAPOLUTELEQBRET
572ND YR8298★4-3
JACKSON BROUSSEAUQBPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
463RD YR6445★3-8
EJ CAMINONGQBRET
472ND YR—45★3—
ALONZO ESPARZAQBRET
351ST YR—50★3—
NAINOA LOPESQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—79★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 57 PLAYERS35% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4770%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
4648%8%
SECONDARYDB
5067%22%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCALIFORNIA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
70OF 138
TAL
60
PERF
52
RET
72
DL
83OF 138
DL RET
70
LB
78OF 138
LB RET
48
FRONT-7NC STATE DEFENSE
CAL OFFENSIVE LINEn=2028% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BASTIAN SWINNEYOLRET
544TH YR—75★3+33 2025
KAHLEE TAFAIOLPORTAL · MINNESOTA
543RD YR—78★3-32 2025
TYSON RUFFINSOLRET
523RD YR—28★3+31 2025
JIMOTHY LEWIS JR.OLPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
472ND YR—64★3—
SIOAPE VATIKANIOLRET
474TH YR—75★3-2 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCSU FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS39% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZANE WILLIAMSLBRET
523RD YR—44★3—
COLBY CRONKDTRET
502ND YR1678★3—
HARVEY DYSON IIILBTRUE FR
484TH YR8964★3-7
KE'VON CARTERLBRET
482ND YR4366★3—
ISAIAH SHIRLEYDTRET
474TH YR7776★3-18
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCALIFORNIA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
68OF 138
TAL
90
PERF
52
RET
1
DL
83OF 138
DL RET
70
LB
78OF 138
LB RET
48
FRONT-7NC STATE DEFENSE
CAL RUNNING BACKSn=799% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ADAM MOHAMMEDRBPORTAL · WASHINGTON
593RD YR8097★4-3
ANTHONY LEAGUERBRET
491ST YR2680★3-59
ASHTEN EMORYRBPORTAL · UTEP
492ND YR7245★3-22
CARTER VARGASRBPORTAL · UC DAVIS
472ND YR1164★3—
CARSON PERRY-SMITHRBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS40% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554770%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454648%8%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECALIFORNIA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
43OF 138
TAL
76
PERF
56
RET
39
DB
76OF 138
DB RET
67
SECONDARYNC STATE DEFENSE
CAL PASS CATCHERSn=2161% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHASE HENDRICKSWRPORTAL · OHIO
774TH YR9998★4+17
IAN STRONGWRPORTAL · RUTGERS
694TH YR9897★4+20
MASON MINITERET
613RD YR7045★3+12 2025
QUARON ADAMSWRRET
584TH YR—45★3+30 2025
DORIAN THOMASTEPORTAL · NEW MEXICO
543RD YR—92★4+33 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCSU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM33% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ASAAD BROWN JR.CBRET
733RD YR8181★3+22
KING MACKSPORTAL · PENN STATE
544TH YR8278★3+32
BRIAN NELSON IICBRET
514TH YR9785★3-30
TY WHITEDBPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
483RD YR3545★3—
BRODY BARNHARDTSRET
483RD YR5473★3-21
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CAL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NCSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
44.2
42.3
— OFFENSE
53.7
47.4
— DEFENSE
34.8
37.2
SP+ OVERALL
-0.6
8.0
FPI
-1.5
2.0
ELO
1353
1510
TALENT
752
757
PRODUCTION
57
69
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−3
+6
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.25
0.27
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CAL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NCSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
35
51
DEF EFFICIENCY
43
65
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
53
94
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
78
8
FINISHING DRIVES
54
96
FIELD POSITION
89
77
TURNOVER MARGIN
35
23
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CAL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NCSU
PASS RATE
57.2%
47.7%
PACE
25.1s
27.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
54.2%
64.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
80.3%
74.6%
PLAYS / GAME
71.7
65.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.9%
2.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CAL, ORANGE = NCSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE