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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›MIZ @ ARK›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MISSOURI
ARKANSAS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|RAZORBACK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#20AP
32FPI
MIZSECMISSOURI
3-0
87
82
99
42%
43
96
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
74FPI
ARKSECARKANSAS
1-2
74
99
36
14%
89
99
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MIZ44CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
66
PROE
23
TEMPO
43
EXPLOSIVE66p
66
PROE23p
23
TEMPO43p
43
ARK55CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
13
PROE
63
TEMPO
89
EXPLOSIVE13p
13
PROE63p
63
TEMPO89p
89
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MIZRECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.2-2.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.8
MISSOURI won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARKRECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs5.8-6.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-3.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-6
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.9
ARKANSAS won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMISSOURIARKANSAS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB81%Marvin Burks Jr.PORTAL · WISCONSIN · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONToriano Pride Jr.DRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaylan CarnellS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB76%Beau PribulaPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB70%Josiah TrotterDRAFTED · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKhalil JacobsLB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTriston NewsonLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL54%Zion YoungDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris McClellanDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDamon Wilson IIPORTAL · MIAMI · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE50%Kevin Coleman Jr.DRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh ManningPORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarquis JohnsonPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL44%Keagen TrostDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONConnor TollisonOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB9%Marquise DavisPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBElijah Dotson · PORTAL ★4 · MICHIGANSione Laulea · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONChris Graves Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISS5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBAustin Simmons · PORTAL ★4 · OLE MISSGavin Sidwar · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBRobert Woodyard Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNJJ Bush · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DLKamauryn Morgan · PORTAL ★4 · BAYLORTajh Overton · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TECayden Lee · PORTAL ★4 · OLE MISSJabari Brady · SIGNEE ★3Devyon Hill-Lomax · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLLuke Work · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEDJ Jones · SIGNEE ★4Braylon Ellison · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MISSOURI
CARRIED COMPOSITE
42.557 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
60.490 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
30.622 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3939943953 OF 5 GRADED
RB7272575686 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE535380602011 OF 20 GRADED
OL646468391810 OF 18 GRADED
DL787871532117 OF 21 GRADED
LB74748478117 OF 11 GRADED
DB616183422116 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE87th87
BLUE-CHIP RATIO36%85
RECRUITING CLASS#34 · 4/23 BC75
CLASS RANK TREND-14 · 3 CYCLES22
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 30 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 7th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARKRYAN SILVERFIELDFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8383
PACE
8585
PASS RATE
7474
EXPLOSIVENESS
7070
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6262
HAVOC
7373
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MIZELI DRINKWITZ7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3535
PACE
7979
PASS RATE
2323
EXPLOSIVENESS
3232
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1414
HAVOC
9797
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMIZ OFFENSEARK OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMISSOURI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
114OF 138
TAL
94
PERF
39
RET
39
NATIONAL
77OF 136
RET
9
FULL DEFENSEARKANSAS DEFENSE
MIZ QUARTERBACKSn=561% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AUSTIN SIMMONSQBPORTAL · OLE MISS
484TH YR4898★4+33
NICK EVERSQBPORTAL · UCONN
434TH YR6145★3-54
MATT ZOLLERSQBRET
412ND YR4596★4-50
GAVIN SIDWARQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—82★3—
BRETT BROWNQBRET
324TH YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS74% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5741%35%
LINEBACKERSLB
5540%11%
SECONDARYDB
5415%4%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMISSOURI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
27OF 138
TAL
68
PERF
64
RET
39
DL
44OF 138
DL RET
41
LB
41OF 138
LB RET
40
FRONT-7ARKANSAS DEFENSE
MIZ OFFENSIVE LINEn=1861% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAYDEN GREENOLRET
724TH YR—100★4+9 2025
DOMINICK GIUDICEOLRET
684TH YR—78★3+43 2025
JOSH ATKINSOLPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
604TH YR—78★3-31 2025
CURTIS PEAGLEROLRET
584TH YR—45★3+19 2025
JACK LANGEOLRET
522ND YR—95★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS60% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEN BOGLELBPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
554TH YR5478★3—
STEVEN SOLES JR.DLPORTAL · KENTUCKY
543RD YR5464★3+53
PHOENIX JACKSONLBPORTAL · BAYLOR
534TH YR8378★3-9
CARLON JONESDLPORTAL · USC
523RD YR3664★3—
DAVID OKEDLRET
524TH YR—85★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMISSOURI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
8OF 138
TAL
57
PERF
72
RET
56
DL
44OF 138
DL RET
41
LB
41OF 138
LB RET
40
FRONT-7ARKANSAS DEFENSE
MIZ RUNNING BACKSn=844% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMAL ROBERTSRBRET
784TH YR8178★3+25
PRESTON HATFIELDRBTRUE FR
521ST YR—66★3—
ANTHONY FAVROWRBRET
504TH YR1—UNR—
XAI'SHAUN EDWARDSRBPORTAL · HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
503RD YR—28★3—
MALAE FONOTIRBPORTAL · MONTANA
493RD YR—28★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS60% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555741%35%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455540%11%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMISSOURI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
51OF 138
TAL
80
PERF
53
RET
60
DB
58OF 138
DB RET
15
SECONDARYARKANSAS DEFENSE
MIZ PASS CATCHERSn=2040% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAYDEN LEEWRPORTAL · OLE MISS
584TH YR9892★4+23
SHAUN TERRY IIWRRET
522ND YR389★4—
DONOVAN OLUGBODEWRRET
522ND YR—96★4+21
DAMARION FOWLKESWRRET
512ND YR182★3—
BRETT NORFLEETTERET
504TH YR9191★4+1
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM85% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LA'KHI ROLANDDBPORTAL · MARYLAND
603RD YR—64★3+8 2025
MIGUEL MITCHELLDBRET
594TH YR9464★3+21
JOKER JOHNSONDBTRUE FR
494TH YR—92★4—
CHRISTIAN HARRISONDBPORTAL · CINCINNATI
484TH YR9264★3-6
BRYLAN GREENSTRUE FR
484TH YR——★3+22 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARK
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
44.4
48.6
— OFFENSE
45.6
49.4
— DEFENSE
43.3
47.9
SP+ OVERALL
15.1
1.5
FPI
10.5
-1.6
ELO
1690
1466
TALENT
808
745
PRODUCTION
87
68
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−3
+11
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.36
0.26
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARK
OFF EFFICIENCY
75
92
DEF EFFICIENCY
95
9
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
44
83
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
56
34
FINISHING DRIVES
68
79
FIELD POSITION
74
85
TURNOVER MARGIN
36
4
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARK
PASS RATE
43.2%
61.0%
PACE
28.1s
24.8s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
66.7%
48.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
63.5%
77.5%
PLAYS / GAME
64.0
72.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.1%
6.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MIZ, ORANGE = ARK) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE