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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›BAY @ UCF›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
BAYLOR
UCF
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
FRI 19:30 ET|FBC MORTGAGE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP17|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
38FPI
BAYB12BAYLOR
2-1
69
80
74
60%
99
83
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
52FPI
UCFB12UCF
2-1
53
66
82
25%
7
52
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
BAY87CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
70
PROE
93
TEMPO
99
EXPLOSIVE70p
70
PROE93p
93
TEMPO99p
99
UCF55CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
88
PROE
70
TEMPO
7
EXPLOSIVE88p
88
PROE70p
70
TEMPO7p
7
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
BAYRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.7-6.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.5
BAYLOR won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UCFRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.8
UCF won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBAYLORUCF2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB99%Sawyer RobertsonQB · 99% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE84%Josh CameronDRAFTED · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAshtyn HawkinsWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael TriggTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL78%Emar'rion WinstonPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJackie MarshallDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCooper LanzDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL63%Ryan LengyelOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONColeton PriceOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOmar AigbedionOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB58%Devyn BobbyS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ ColemanPORTAL · FLORIDA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKendrick SimpkinsS · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB53%Keaton ThomasPORTAL · OLE MISS · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB50%Bryson WashingtonPORTAL · AUBURN · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoseph DoddsRB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDJ Lagway · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDAQuinn Murphy · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEDre'lon Miller · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOHardley Gilmore IV · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYGavin Freeman · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLHosea Wheeler · PORTAL ★4 · INDIANAGarrick Ponder · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN MISSJordan Mack · PORTAL ★3 · COASTAL CAROLINA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLNate Kibble · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASCole Rhett · PORTAL ★3 · TOLEDOYakiri Walker · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHIS2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJordan Davis · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBJamarion Phillips · SIGNEE ★3Jahiem Porter · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBHD Davis · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BAYLOR
CARRIED COMPOSITE
28.620 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
17.514 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
36.039 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB454598051 OF 5 GRADED
RB4949754163 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE60606666218 OF 21 GRADED
OL64645938206 OF 20 GRADED
DL434369261911 OF 19 GRADED
LB31316782105 OF 10 GRADED
DB56567246259 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE69th69
BLUE-CHIP RATIO24%74
RECRUITING CLASS#57 · 4/14 BC58
CLASS RANK TREND+10 · 3 CYCLES70
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 31 IN / 32 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 7th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UCFSCOTT FROST2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7474
PACE
3535
PASS RATE
7777
EXPLOSIVENESS
9797
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9696
HAVOC
6060
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BAYDAVE ARANDA7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6464
PACE
8989
PASS RATE
6565
EXPLOSIVENESS
6060
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9999
HAVOC
3636
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBAY OFFENSEUCF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBAYLOR OFFENSE
NATIONAL
96OF 138
TAL
98
PERF
45
RET
0
NATIONAL
37OF 136
RET
7
FULL DEFENSEUCF DEFENSE
BAY QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DJ LAGWAYQBPORTAL · FLORIDA
463RD YR8598★4+10 2025
NATE BENNETTQBRET
453RD YR—47★3—
EDWARD GRIFFINQBRET
352ND YR—69★3—
QUINN MURPHYQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
CADE TESSIERQBRET
324TH YR—13★2—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS50% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5858%14%
LINEBACKERSLB
4838%17%
SECONDARYDB
5150%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBAYLOR OFFENSE
NATIONAL
25OF 138
TAL
59
PERF
64
RET
38
DL
38OF 138
DL RET
58
LB
71OF 138
LB RET
38
FRONT-7UCF DEFENSE
BAY OFFENSIVE LINEn=2062% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NATE KIBBLEOLPORTAL · TEXAS
523RD YR—78★3—
ASHER HALEOLPORTAL · SOUTH ALABAMA
763RD YR—45★3+50 2025
KOLTIN SIERACKIOLRET
503RD YR—57★3-17 2025
COOPER LOVELACEOLPORTAL · COLORADO
494TH YR—64★3+1 2024
HARRISON CLUFFOLRET
492ND YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCF FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS50% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LEWIS CARTERLBRET
704TH YR8778★3+2
JAHLEEL CULBREATHLBPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
564TH YR9645★3+15
HORACE LOCKETTDTRET
544TH YR—78★3-32 2025
AYMERIC KOUMBAEDGERET
523RD YR2964★3—
BRAD GURLEY JR.DTPORTAL · EASTERN KENTUCKY
524TH YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBAYLOR OFFENSE
NATIONAL
87OF 138
TAL
75
PERF
49
RET
41
DL
38OF 138
DL RET
58
LB
71OF 138
LB RET
38
FRONT-7UCF DEFENSE
BAY RUNNING BACKSn=659% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CADEN KNIGHTENRBRET
582ND YR6884★4-21
DAWSON PENDERGRASSRBRET
564TH YR8868★3+24
MICHAEL TURNERRBRET
492ND YR5590★4+4
HD DAVISRBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
RYELAN MORRISRBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS51% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555858%14%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454838%17%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBAYLOR OFFENSE
NATIONAL
35OF 138
TAL
66
PERF
60
RET
66
DB
71OF 138
DB RET
50
SECONDARYUCF DEFENSE
BAY PASS CATCHERSn=2134% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TONY LIVINGSTONTEPORTAL · FLORIDA
554TH YR—64★3+25 2025
GAVIN FREEMANWRPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
504TH YR8264★3+10
LOUIS BROWN IVWRRET
504TH YR9945★3+16
HAWKINS POLLEYTERET
494TH YR971★3—
MATTHEW KLOPFENSTEINTERET
494TH YR5884★3-23
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCF SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM50% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CALEB FLAGGDBPORTAL · MISSOURI
574TH YR—45★3—
DJ BELLDBRET
564TH YR—64★3-30 2025
DEMARI HENDERSONDBRET
564TH YR9677★3-4
JAYDEN WILLIAMSDBRET
544TH YR9445★3-8
JAYDEN BELLAMYDBRET
544TH YR9878★3-14
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BAY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCF
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
42.6
55.8
— OFFENSE
43.5
60.6
— DEFENSE
41.8
50.9
SP+ OVERALL
7.4
5.6
FPI
8.1
4.9
ELO
1534
1481
TALENT
723
672
PRODUCTION
61
55
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+12
+17
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.24
0.19
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BAY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCF
OFF EFFICIENCY
70
26
DEF EFFICIENCY
28
40
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
69
92
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
86
94
FINISHING DRIVES
30
23
FIELD POSITION
61
63
TURNOVER MARGIN
26
34
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BAY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCF
PASS RATE
49.4%
43.0%
PACE
22.4s
32.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
60.7%
61.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
72.6%
53.1%
PLAYS / GAME
80.3
55.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
2.5%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BAY, ORANGE = UCF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE