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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›KU @ TCU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
KANSAS
TCU
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|AMON G. CARTER STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP16|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
67FPI
KUB12KANSAS
1-2
55
87
56
18%
79
61
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
41FPI
TCUB12TCU
2-1
72
84
64
22%
64
93
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
KU71CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
92
PROE
41
TEMPO
79
EXPLOSIVE92p
92
PROE41p
41
TEMPO79p
79
TCU65CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
50
PROE
81
TEMPO
64
EXPLOSIVE50p
50
PROE81p
81
TEMPO64p
64
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
KURECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.3
KANSAS won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TCURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.6
TCU won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERKANSASTCU2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB99%Daniel Hishaw Jr.RB · 49% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLeshon WilliamsRB · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHarry Stewart IIIPORTAL · BOISE STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB93%Jalon DanielsQB · 93% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE64%Boden GroenTE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEmmanuel Henderson Jr.DRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLevi WentzWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL61%Kobe BaynesOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryce FosterOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEnrique Cruz Jr.DRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL56%D.J. WithersDT · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustice FinkleyDE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTommy Dunn Jr.DT · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB55%Bangally KamaraLB · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJon Jon KamaraLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB39%Lyrik RawlsPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ Graham IIDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin DyeS · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBDylan Edwards · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS STATEKory Amachree · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBJaylen Mason · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEJailen Butler · PORTAL ★3 · OLD DOMINIONKevin Sullivan · SIGNEE ★3Jack Utz · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLConnor Stroh · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASNick Morrow · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIAKaden Snyder · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJibriel Conde · PORTAL ★3 · GRAND VALLEY STATE UNIVERSITYJibriel Conde · PORTAL ★3 · GRAND VALLEY STATETre'Von McAlpine · PORTAL ★3 · TULANE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBLandyn Watson · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYJibreel Al-Amin · PORTAL ★3 · MARSHALLJosh Galbreath · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBTrey Brown · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · KANSAS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
43.964 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
29.932 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
51.876 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB71718010062 OF 6 GRADED
RB595966286 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE717158372315 OF 23 GRADED
OL696968511913 OF 19 GRADED
DL616160582018 OF 20 GRADED
LB56565945128 OF 12 GRADED
DB515159412018 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE55th55
BLUE-CHIP RATIO10%47
RECRUITING CLASS#61 · 1/18 BC55
CLASS RANK TREND-18 · 3 CYCLES14
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 31 IN / 26 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TCUSONNY DYKES5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8585
PACE
8181
PASS RATE
7878
EXPLOSIVENESS
7777
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7272
HAVOC
2626
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
KULANCE LEIPOLD6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2222
PACE
1717
PASS RATE
1515
EXPLOSIVENESS
7979
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5656
HAVOC
5050
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESKU OFFENSETCU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBKANSAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
15OF 138
TAL
80
PERF
71
RET
100
NATIONAL
42OF 136
RET
37
FULL DEFENSETCU DEFENSE
KU QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ISAIAH MARSHALLQBRET
522ND YR880★3—
COLE BALLARDQBRET
493RD YR43—UNR+12
CHASE JENKINSQBPORTAL · RICE
483RD YR—45★3+36 2025
JAYLEN MASONQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—66★3—
BRAYLEN ROONEYQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS20% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4174%29%
LINEBACKERSLB
4664%0%
SECONDARYDB
5389%19%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLKANSAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
15OF 138
TAL
68
PERF
69
RET
51
DL
103OF 138
DL RET
74
LB
76OF 138
LB RET
64
FRONT-7TCU DEFENSE
KU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1949% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AMIR HERRINGOLRET
673RD YR—85★3+34 2025
CONNOR STROHOLPORTAL · TEXAS
573RD YR—78★3+1 2025
ANDERSON KOPPOLRET
521ST YR—55★3—
DEANDRE HARPEROLRET
512ND YR—64★3—
JAMES LIVINGSTONOLRET
514TH YR—53★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS30% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PAUL OYEWALEEDGERET
534TH YR9078★3-22
MICHAEL TEASON JR.LBRET
524TH YR3264★3—
MICHAEL SHORTLBPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH
514TH YR5564★3—
KELTEN MICKELLDTRET
504TH YR26—UNR—
JOHN SCHOBELEDGERET
492ND YR3176★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBKANSAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
36OF 138
TAL
66
PERF
59
RET
2
DL
103OF 138
DL RET
74
LB
76OF 138
LB RET
64
FRONT-7TCU DEFENSE
KU RUNNING BACKSn=898% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JALEN DUPREERBPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
612ND YR7245★3+5
DYLAN EDWARDSRBPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
543RD YR8185★3+18
MICAH JOHNSONRBRET
522ND YR——UNR-23
YASIN WILLISRBPORTAL · SYRACUSE
453RD YR8064★3-18
JOHN KELLYRBRET
381ST YR172★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS30% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554174%29%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454664%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEKANSAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
11OF 138
TAL
58
PERF
71
RET
37
DB
59OF 138
DB RET
89
SECONDARYTCU DEFENSE
KU PASS CATCHERSn=2363% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NIK MCMILLANWRPORTAL · BUFFALO
664TH YR9445★3+25
CARSON BRUHNTERET
542ND YR3665★3—
CARTER MOSESTEPORTAL · ALBANY
524TH YR—28★3—
BRYSON HAYESWRRET
521ST YR867★3—
TATE NAGYWRRET
522ND YR1143★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM12% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMEL JOHNSONSRET
704TH YR9984★4+6
KYLIN JACKSONSRET
584TH YR5964★3+27
JULIUS SIMMSSRET
532ND YR4965★3—
DEVYN HIDROGOSRET
523RD YR2775★3—
RYAN YAITESSRET
494TH YR—45★3+4 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
KU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TCU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
55.2
42.2
— OFFENSE
65.3
42.3
— DEFENSE
45.0
42.2
SP+ OVERALL
4.7
11.3
FPI
-0.1
7.2
ELO
1481
1629
TALENT
685
731
PRODUCTION
58
77
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−3
+5
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.10
0.22
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
KU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TCU
OFF EFFICIENCY
91
68
DEF EFFICIENCY
53
63
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
6
63
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
7
35
FINISHING DRIVES
67
69
FIELD POSITION
48
35
TURNOVER MARGIN
10
28
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
KU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TCU
PASS RATE
43.8%
47.0%
PACE
25.7s
26.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
62.4%
57.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
54.5%
58.9%
PLAYS / GAME
70.0
67.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.9%
3.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = KU, ORANGE = TCU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE