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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›BC @ DUKE›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
BOSTON COLLEGE
DUKE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|WALLACE WADE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
91FPI
BCACCBOSTON COLLEGE
2-1
49
59
35
16%
31
87
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
35FPI
DUKEACCDUKE
3-0
50
86
15
17%
59
76
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
BC52CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
31
PROE
92
TEMPO
31
EXPLOSIVE31p
31
PROE92p
92
TEMPO31p
31
DUKE70CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
68
PROE
82
TEMPO
59
EXPLOSIVE68p
68
PROE82p
82
TEMPO59p
59
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
BCRECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs4.3-7.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.3
BOSTON COLLEGE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
DUKERECORD MATCHES
8-5ACTUALvs7.8-5.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.3
DUKE won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBOSTON COLLEGEDUKE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Dylan LonerganPORTAL · RUTGERS · 61% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGrayson JamesQB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShaker ReisigQB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB92%Turbo RichardPORTAL · INDIANA · 59% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan McDonaldRB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB81%Owen McGowanLB · 57% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryce SteelePORTAL · TROY · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJason Hewlett Jr.LB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL73%Logan TaylorDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKevin ClineOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEryx DaughertyOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE66%Jeremiah FranklinTE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLewis BondDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReed HarrisPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL59%Sedarius McConnellDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEdwin KolengePORTAL · VANDERBILT · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuintayvious HutchinsDRAFTED · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB24%Omar ThorntonPORTAL · MIAMI · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBGrayson Wilson · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASFemi Babalola · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBSedric Addison · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBKris Jones · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIASteve Klein · SIGNEE ★3Mekhi Volcy · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLTrevon Humphrey · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINA CENTRALKristian Phillips · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEMarcelino Antunes Jr. · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEReed Swanson · PORTAL ★3 · COLGATELandon Wright · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATEKelvin Brown · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLKJ Sampson · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEMason Leak · SIGNEE ★4Demeterius Thompson · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBChandler Jordan · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA STATEJordan Rodriguez · SIGNEE ★3DJ Biggins · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BOSTON COLLEGE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
44.465 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
29.831 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
54.986 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB363645061 OF 6 GRADED
RB4949485782 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE515159662411 OF 24 GRADED
OL47475952198 OF 19 GRADED
DL393957452312 OF 23 GRADED
LB24243020114 OF 11 GRADED
DB494959942513 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE49th49
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%34
RECRUITING CLASS#53 · 1/24 BC61
CLASS RANK TREND+42 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 26 IN / 30 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
DUKEMANNY DIAZ3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8787
PACE
4343
PASS RATE
8383
EXPLOSIVENESS
7676
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6464
HAVOC
9595
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BCBILL O'BRIEN3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5757
PACE
6565
PASS RATE
5454
EXPLOSIVENESS
4747
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9191
HAVOC
2020
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBC OFFENSEDUKE OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
121OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
36
RET
0
NATIONAL
93OF 136
RET
51
FULL DEFENSEDUKE DEFENSE
BC QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MASON MCKENZIEQBPORTAL · SAGINAW VALLEY STATE
493RD YR3945★3-39
GRAYSON WILSONQBPORTAL · ARKANSAS
371ST YR—64★3—
FEMI BABALOLAQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—73★3—
ANTHONY COELLNERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—54★3—
ENZO ARJONAQBRET
304TH YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 45 PLAYERS39% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6690%24%
LINEBACKERSLB
53100%9%
SECONDARYDB
4834%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
88OF 138
TAL
59
PERF
47
RET
52
DL
17OF 138
DL RET
90
LB
51OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7DUKE DEFENSE
BC OFFENSIVE LINEn=1948% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JUDAH PRUITTOLRET
492ND YR—60★3—
OWEN SNIVELYOLPORTAL · EASTERN MICHIGAN
574TH YR—45★3-11 2025
MICHAEL CROUNSEOLRET
563RD YR—56★3+33 2025
KRISTIAN PHILLIPSOLPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
554TH YR—64★3+44 2025
JANI NORWOODOLPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
502ND YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS6% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LUKE MERGOTTLBRET
573RD YR8653★3-5
TYSHON REEDDERET
553RD YR5760★3+3
PRESTON WATSONDTRET
543RD YR7473★3-19
KOBE SMITHDERET
542ND YR4374★3—
NICK MORRIS JR.LBRET
514TH YR7863★3-8
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
83OF 138
TAL
48
PERF
49
RET
57
DL
17OF 138
DL RET
90
LB
51OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7DUKE DEFENSE
BC RUNNING BACKSn=843% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EVAN DICKENSRBPORTAL · LIBERTY
713RD YR9145★3+14
BO MACCORMACK IIIRBRET
482ND YR3550★3-42
MEKHI DODDRBRET
471ST YR—65★3—
NOLAN RAYRBPORTAL · MARYLAND
443RD YR—45★3-22 2025
ANTHONY FERRUCCIRBRET
503RD YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS6% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556690%24%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4553100%9%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
66OF 138
TAL
59
PERF
51
RET
66
DB
96OF 138
DB RET
34
SECONDARYDUKE DEFENSE
BC PASS CATCHERSn=2434% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NEDRICK BOLDIN JR.WRRET
511ST YR—62★3—
BRADY CLOUGHTERET
512ND YR3—UNR—
ZEKE MOORETERET
504TH YR6432★3-42
REED SWANSONWRPORTAL · COLGATE
493RD YR—78★3—
JACKSON WADEWRPORTAL · FLORIDA
483RD YR1645★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE SECONDARYn=17 · 1 ROOM66% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DYLAN FLOWERSCBPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
784TH YR6278★3-29
DASHAWN STONESRET
593RD YR9560★3-4
EVAN SMITHCBPORTAL · NORTHWESTERN
524TH YR6264★3-33
LEON GRIFFIN IIISRET
503RD YR—51★3—
KALEB LANIERCBRET
481ST YR—66★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DUKE
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
37.3
57.9
— OFFENSE
44.6
61.6
— DEFENSE
30.0
54.1
SP+ OVERALL
-3.3
6.9
FPI
-5.8
9.1
ELO
1379
1656
TALENT
660
668
PRODUCTION
41
68
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+17
−15
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.07
0.09
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DUKE
OFF EFFICIENCY
56
78
DEF EFFICIENCY
34
31
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
38
81
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
9
16
FINISHING DRIVES
17
83
FIELD POSITION
81
15
TURNOVER MARGIN
18
87
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DUKE
PASS RATE
46.0%
36.0%
PACE
28.9s
27.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
66.1%
69.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
71.7%
47.6%
PLAYS / GAME
62.3
66.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BC, ORANGE = DUKE) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE