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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›CLEM @ FSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
CLEMSON
FLORIDA STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|DOAK CAMPBELL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
46FPI
CLEMACCCLEMSON
1-1
89
58
78
41%
27
56
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
37FPI
FSUACCFLORIDA STATE
1-1
85
96
58
40%
54
65
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
CLEM40CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
5
PROE
87
TEMPO
27
EXPLOSIVE5p
5
PROE87p
87
TEMPO27p
27
FSU52CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
80
PROE
21
TEMPO
54
EXPLOSIVE80p
80
PROE21p
21
TEMPO54p
54
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
CLEMRECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.3
CLEMSON won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FSURECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs8.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-3.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+11.0
FLORIDA STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCLEMSONFLORIDA STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB83%Cade KlubnikDRAFTED · 83% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB73%Adam RandallDRAFTED · 70% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL64%Peter WoodsDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONT.J. ParkerDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeMonte CapehartDRAFTED · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL57%Blake MillerDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyan LinthicumC · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTristan LeighOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB51%Ricardo JonesPORTAL · VANDERBILT · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAvieon TerrellDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKhalil BarnesS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB37%Wade WoodazDRAFTED · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE26%Antonio WilliamsDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh SappTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTait Reynolds · SIGNEE ★3Brock Bradley · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBChris Johnson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · SMUREFILLED
DLMarkus Strong · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMALondon Merritt · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADODevarrick Woods · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLChance Barclay · SIGNEE ★4Leo Delaney · SIGNEE ★4Grant Wise · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DBDonovan Starr · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNElliot Washington II · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEPolo Anderson · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBBrayden Reilly · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TENaeem Burroughs · SIGNEE ★4Gordon Sellars III · SIGNEE ★4Connor Salmin · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CLEMSON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
50.781 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
56.486 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
47.365 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7171916162 OF 6 GRADED
RB5353897274 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE62629398268 OF 26 GRADED
OL61618980216 OF 21 GRADED
DL575788562212 OF 22 GRADED
LB585879100125 OF 12 GRADED
DB565672562011 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE89th89
BLUE-CHIP RATIO52%89
RECRUITING CLASS#20 · 10/22 BC86
CLASS RANK TREND-9 · 3 CYCLES32
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 11 IN / 15 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FSUMIKE NORVELL7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5252
PACE
3939
PASS RATE
4747
EXPLOSIVENESS
9696
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7070
HAVOC
7878
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CLEMDABO SWINNEY11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8484
PACE
8686
PASS RATE
6868
EXPLOSIVENESS
66
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2626
HAVOC
100100
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCLEM OFFENSEFSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCLEMSON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
16OF 138
TAL
91
PERF
71
RET
61
NATIONAL
48OF 136
RET
17
FULL DEFENSEFLORIDA STATE DEFENSE
CLEM QUARTERBACKSn=639% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHRISTOPHER VIZZINAQBRET
504TH YR5297★4-23
TAIT REYNOLDSQBTRUE FR
481ST YR1882★3—
CHRIS DENSONQBRET
522ND YR—79★3—
TRENT PEARMANQBRET
384TH YR——UNR—
BROCK BRADLEYQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—55★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS44% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5766%35%
LINEBACKERSLB
5839%14%
SECONDARYDB
5857%25%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCLEMSON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
40OF 138
TAL
89
PERF
61
RET
80
DL
39OF 138
DL RET
66
LB
32OF 138
LB RET
39
FRONT-7FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE
CLEM OFFENSIVE LINEn=2120% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EASTON WAREOLRET
522ND YR—86★4—
ELYJAH THURMONOLRET
523RD YR—92★4—
CHAPMAN PENDERGRASSOLRET
514TH YR——UNR—
HARRIS SEWELLOLRET
504TH YR—94★4+5 2025
MASON WADEOLRET
503RD YR—76★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS45% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHRIS JONESLBPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
763RD YR9164★3-51
MANDRELL DESIRDLRET
712ND YR65100★4+35
DEANTE MCCRAYDLRET
604TH YR9678★3-6
DANIEL LYONSDLRET
564TH YR9082★3+5
DEAMONTAE DIGGSDLRET
524TH YR7292★4+1
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCLEMSON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
61OF 138
TAL
89
PERF
53
RET
72
DL
39OF 138
DL RET
66
LB
32OF 138
LB RET
39
FRONT-7FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE
CLEM RUNNING BACKSn=728% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHRIS JOHNSON JR.RBPORTAL · SMU
584TH YR6078★3+33
JARVIS GREENRBRET
514TH YR3167★3-19
DAVID EZIOMUMERBRET
473RD YR4088★4+31
GIDEON DAVIDSONRBRET
472ND YR5497★4+5
JAY HAYNESRBRET
584TH YR—64★3+33 2024
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS46% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555766%35%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455839%14%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECLEMSON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
32OF 138
TAL
93
PERF
62
RET
98
DB
32OF 138
DB RET
57
SECONDARYFLORIDA STATE DEFENSE
CLEM PASS CATCHERSn=262% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRYANT WESCO JR.WRRET
743RD YR9198★4+25
T.J. MOOREWRRET
653RD YR9799★4+4
OLSEN PATT-HENRYTERET
544TH YR6585★4+2
GORDON SELLARS IIIWRTRUE FR
481ST YR—94★4—
CHRISTIAN BENTANCURTERET
473RD YR—97★4-29
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM43% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MA'KHI JONESDBPORTAL · DUKE
682ND YR6378★3+25
ASHLYND BARKERDBRET
584TH YR8598★4+32
MAX REDMONDBRET
521ST YR2470★3—
ANTONIO CROMARTIE JR.DBRET
521ST YR2838★3—
CJ RICHARD JR.DBPORTAL · ILLINOIS STATE
502ND YR3678★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CLEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
35.7
48.1
— OFFENSE
39.1
57.7
— DEFENSE
32.3
38.6
SP+ OVERALL
8.1
7.7
FPI
5.3
7.7
ELO
1558
1557
TALENT
863
800
PRODUCTION
84
75
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+13
+16
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.52
0.35
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CLEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
53
88
DEF EFFICIENCY
86
59
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
40
89
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
14
76
FINISHING DRIVES
68
63
FIELD POSITION
30
52
TURNOVER MARGIN
40
51
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CLEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
PASS RATE
52.1%
40.6%
PACE
30.3s
27.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
56.9%
71.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
66.0%
66.7%
PLAYS / GAME
59.5
66.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.4%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CLEM, ORANGE = FSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE