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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›GT @ PITT›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
GEORGIA TECH
PITTSBURGH
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|ACRISURE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP22|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
60FPI
GTACCGEORGIA TECH
1-2
76
90
39
13%
26
82
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
25FPI
PITTACCPITTSBURGH
3-0
54
59
80
40%
68
61
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
GT25CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
13
PROE
36
TEMPO
26
EXPLOSIVE13p
13
PROE36p
36
TEMPO26p
26
PITT68CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
42
PROE
95
TEMPO
68
EXPLOSIVE42p
42
PROE95p
95
TEMPO68p
68
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
GTRECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.9-4.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.1
GEORGIA TECH won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
PITTRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.2
PITTSBURGH won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERGEORGIA TECHPITTSBURGH2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Haynes KingQB · 93% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAaron PhiloPORTAL · FLORIDA · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE95%Eric RiversWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsiah CanionPORTAL · GEORGIA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJ.T. ByrneTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB63%Omar DanielsDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONClayton Powell-LeeDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAhmari HarveyDB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL60%Keylan RutledgeDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHarrison MooreOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoe FusileOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB56%Jamal HaynesRB · 54% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL50%Jordan van den BergDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMatthew AlexanderDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJason MooreDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB16%Tah'j ButlerPORTAL · OLE MISS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBCole Bergeron · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TEJaylen Mbakwe · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMAJeffar Jean-Noel · SIGNEE ★3Nate Agyemang · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DBTrae Stevenson Jr. · SIGNEE ★4Jaedyn Terry · SIGNEE ★4Chris Hewitt Jr. · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
OLCourtney Heard · SIGNEE ★3Courtlin Heard · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBJustice Haynes · PORTAL ★4 · MICHIGANREFILLED
DLNoah Carter · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMATaje McCoy · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEJordan Walker · PORTAL ★3 · RUTGERS5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBBraylon Outlaw · SIGNEE ★3CJ Gamble · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · GEORGIA TECH
CARRIED COMPOSITE
35.639 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
5.92 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
51.877 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB686864051 OF 5 GRADED
RB5353942973 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE72726133247 OF 24 GRADED
OL68687280195 OF 19 GRADED
DL515171322012 OF 20 GRADED
LB38386410073 OF 7 GRADED
DB54546678198 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE76th76
BLUE-CHIP RATIO14%60
RECRUITING CLASS#41 · 3/24 BC70
CLASS RANK TREND-8 · 3 CYCLES34
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 19 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
PITTPAT NARDUZZI11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8181
PACE
3333
PASS RATE
8080
EXPLOSIVENESS
7979
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3232
HAVOC
9696
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
GTBRENT KEY5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4141
PACE
5959
PASS RATE
4343
EXPLOSIVENESS
4343
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4040
HAVOC
3838
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESGT OFFENSEPITT OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBGEORGIA TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
20OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
68
RET
0
NATIONAL
17OF 136
RET
34
FULL DEFENSEPITTSBURGH DEFENSE
GT QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ALBERTO MENDOZAQBPORTAL · INDIANA
523RD YR4064★3+39
GRAHAM KNOWLESQBRET
373RD YR278★3—
GRADY ADAMSONQBRET
352ND YR—78★3—
COLE BERGERONQBTRUE FR
471ST YR——★4—
BEN GUTHRIEQBRET
304TH YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PITT DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS29% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6579%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
6243%7%
SECONDARYDB
5576%6%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLGEORGIA TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
19OF 138
TAL
72
PERF
68
RET
80
DL
20OF 138
DL RET
79
LB
25OF 138
LB RET
43
FRONT-7PITTSBURGH DEFENSE
GT OFFENSIVE LINEn=1920% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALACHI CARNEYOLRET
794TH YR9678★3-7
ETHAN MACKENNYOLRET
574TH YR9266★3-10
JOSH PETTYOLRET
502ND YR—97★4—
JAMESON RIGGSOLRET
483RD YR6177★3—
KEVIN PEAY JR.OLRET
482ND YR3876★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PITT FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS35% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SEAN FITZSIMMONSDLRET
804TH YR83—UNR-13
DEMARCO WARDLBPORTAL · MEMPHIS
623RD YR8345★3-63
NICK JAMESDLRET
594TH YR9245★3-25
ZACH CROTHERSDLRET
552ND YR4262★3—
JIMMY SCOTTDLRET
544TH YR9582★3+30
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBGEORGIA TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
59OF 138
TAL
94
PERF
53
RET
29
DL
20OF 138
DL RET
79
LB
25OF 138
LB RET
43
FRONT-7PITTSBURGH DEFENSE
GT RUNNING BACKSn=771% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JUSTICE HAYNESRBPORTAL · MICHIGAN
804TH YR90100★4+26 2023
MALACHI HOSLEYRBRET
754TH YR6585★3+29
CHAD ALEXANDERRBRET
504TH YR—15★2+15 2025
TRELAIN MADDOXRBRET
483RD YR4067★3-25
J.P. POWELLRBRET
502ND YR—86★4—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PITT FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS37% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556579%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456243%7%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEGEORGIA TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
7OF 138
TAL
61
PERF
72
RET
33
DB
52OF 138
DB RET
76
SECONDARYPITTSBURGH DEFENSE
GT PASS CATCHERSn=2467% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GAVIN HARRISTEPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE
554TH YR—64★3+29 2025
JORDAN ALLENWRRET
552ND YR4676★3+38
DALEN PENSONWRRET
522ND YR2494★4—
CHRIS CORBOTEPORTAL · DARTMOUTH
524TH YR928★3—
RAHKEEM SMITHWRRET
524TH YR—45★3+7 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PITT SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM24% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SHAWN LEE JR.DBRET
672ND YR6892★4+20
CRUCE BROOKINSDBRET
553RD YR8567★3+13
ALLEN BRYANTDBRET
522ND YR3969★3—
SHADARIAN HARRISONDBRET
493RD YR—75★3-21 2025
RASHAN MURRAYDBRET
494TH YR3264★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
GT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PITT
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
43.5
43.9
— OFFENSE
44.7
57.5
— DEFENSE
42.2
30.2
SP+ OVERALL
2.7
10.0
FPI
2.1
12.3
ELO
1503
1675
TALENT
752
675
PRODUCTION
70
71
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+4
−7
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.14
0.13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
GT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PITT
OFF EFFICIENCY
95
27
DEF EFFICIENCY
25
92
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
16
86
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
53
19
FINISHING DRIVES
65
51
FIELD POSITION
74
4
TURNOVER MARGIN
14
46
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
GT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PITT
PASS RATE
50.3%
48.8%
PACE
29.5s
26.3s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
57.6%
59.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
67.2%
68.3%
PLAYS / GAME
61.0
68.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
2.7%
1.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = GT, ORANGE = PITT) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE