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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›MIA @ UNC›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MIAMI
NORTH CAROLINA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|KENAN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#5AP
6FPI
MIAACCMIAMI
3-0
92
79
91
37%
75
72
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
51FPI
UNCACCNORTH CAROLINA
2-1
80
51
65
28%
15
58
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MIA72CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
65
PROE
75
TEMPO
75
EXPLOSIVE65p
65
PROE75p
75
TEMPO75p
75
UNC26CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
4
PROE
59
TEMPO
15
EXPLOSIVE4p
4
PROE59p
59
TEMPO15p
15
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MIARECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs10.7-1.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+20.3
MIAMI won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UNCRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.3-7.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.3
NORTH CAROLINA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMIAMINORTH CAROLINA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Carson BeckDRAFTED · 96% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL76%Markel BellDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFrancis MauigoaDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames BrockermeyerOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE56%Alex BaumanTE · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeelan MarionWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ DanielsDRAFTED · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL56%Rueben Bain Jr.DRAFTED · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAkheem MesidorDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavid Blay Jr.DL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB48%Wesley BissaintheLB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPopo AguirrePORTAL · NC STATE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB33%Jakobe ThomasDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeionte ScottDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDarian Mensah · PORTAL ★4 · DUKEDereon Coleman · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
OLJackson Cantwell · SIGNEE ★5Ben Congdon · SIGNEE ★4Joel Ervin · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TECooper Barkate · PORTAL ★4 · DUKEVandrevius Jacobs · PORTAL ★4 · SOUTH CAROLINACam Vaughn · PORTAL ★4 · WEST VIRGINIA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLDamon Wilson II · PORTAL ★4 · MISSOURIKeona Davis · PORTAL ★4 · NEBRASKAAsharri Charles · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DBOmar Thornton · PORTAL ★4 · BOSTON COLLEGEJJ Dunnigan · SIGNEE ★4Jaelen Waters · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MIAMI
CARRIED COMPOSITE
51.283 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
44.161 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
55.687 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6464981462 OF 6 GRADED
RB7474878984 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE767692602512 OF 25 GRADED
OL90908779199 OF 19 GRADED
DL818194721811 OF 18 GRADED
LB626281100116 OF 11 GRADED
DB727293702212 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE92nd92
BLUE-CHIP RATIO56%92
RECRUITING CLASS#9 · 22/30 BC94
CLASS RANK TREND-5 · 3 CYCLES40
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+7 · 13 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UNCBILL BELICHICK2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7070
PACE
11
PASS RATE
7676
EXPLOSIVENESS
88
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1313
HAVOC
2323
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MIAMARIO CRISTOBAL5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8383
PACE
6464
PASS RATE
7171
EXPLOSIVENESS
3636
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4747
HAVOC
9494
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMIA OFFENSEUNC OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMIAMI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
30OF 138
TAL
98
PERF
64
RET
14
NATIONAL
63OF 136
RET
22
FULL DEFENSENORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
MIA QUARTERBACKSn=686% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DARIAN MENSAHQBPORTAL · DUKE
733RD YR9399★4—
LUKE NICKELQBRET
491ST YR1192★4—
DEREON COLEMANQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—90★4—
JUDD ANDERSONQBRET
352ND YR—77★3—
JOE BORCHERSQBRET
303RD YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS25% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4565%29%
LINEBACKERSLB
6020%15%
SECONDARYDB
5397%29%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMIAMI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
1OF 138
TAL
87
PERF
90
RET
79
DL
88OF 138
DL RET
65
LB
29OF 138
LB RET
20
FRONT-7NORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
MIA OFFENSIVE LINEn=1921% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MATTHEW MCCOYOLRET
664TH YR9073★3+35
SAMSON OKUNLOLAOLRET
573RD YR7399★5+26 2025
SEUSEU ALOFAITULIOLRET
512ND YR5295★4—
JACKSON CANTWELLOLTRUE FR
511ST YR23100★5—
BEN CONGDONOLTRUE FR
501ST YR1293★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS53% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LEROY JACKSONDLRET
692ND YR6864★3-37
ISAIAH JOHNSONDLRET
564TH YR7689★3-27
XAVIER LEWISDLRET
522ND YR53—UNR+19
TREY GIDDENSDLRET
521ST YR2421★3—
DONOVAN HOILETTE JR.DLTRUE FR
504TH YR28—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMIAMI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
6OF 138
TAL
87
PERF
74
RET
89
DL
88OF 138
DL RET
65
LB
29OF 138
LB RET
20
FRONT-7NORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
MIA RUNNING BACKSn=811% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARK FLETCHER JR.RBRET
734TH YR9995★4+10
GIRARD PRINGLE JR.RBRET
682ND YR5494★4+23
CHARMAR BROWNRBRET
673RD YR7578★3+8
JORDAN LYLERBRET
573RD YR—95★4+20 2025
JAVIAN MALLORYRBTRUE FR
521ST YR986★4—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS55% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554565%29%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456020%15%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMIAMI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
4OF 138
TAL
92
PERF
76
RET
60
DB
61OF 138
DB RET
97
SECONDARYNORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
MIA PASS CATCHERSn=2540% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALACHI TONEYWRRET
892ND YR8987★4+28
COOPER BARKATEWRPORTAL · DUKE
874TH YR8999★4+32
VANDREVIUS JACOBSWRPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
643RD YR8597★4+9
ELIJA LOFTONTERET
633RD YR6990★4+18
GAVIN MUELLERTETRUE FR
521ST YR897★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM3% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PEYTON WATERSDBRET
522ND YR4064★3—
GREG SMITHDBRET
502ND YR6885★3+14
JALON THOMPSONDBRET
493RD YR—89★4—
KHRISTIAN DUNBAR-HAWKINSDBRET
492ND YR—45★3—
KENTON DOPSON IIIDBTRUE FR
481ST YR1495★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MIA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNC
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
51.4
42.7
— OFFENSE
67.3
46.0
— DEFENSE
35.4
39.5
SP+ OVERALL
25.6
6.4
FPI
23.9
4.9
ELO
1895
1396
TALENT
886
768
PRODUCTION
96
60
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−4
+25
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.56
0.27
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MIA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNC
OFF EFFICIENCY
86
18
DEF EFFICIENCY
91
51
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
12
15
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
44
70
FINISHING DRIVES
86
25
FIELD POSITION
32
46
TURNOVER MARGIN
92
22
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MIA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNC
PASS RATE
46.9%
50.9%
PACE
26.1s
30.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
59.4%
54.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
68.1%
61.8%
PLAYS / GAME
69.0
58.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
8.2%
3.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MIA, ORANGE = UNC) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE