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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›MINN @ IU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MINNESOTA
INDIANA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUM (BLOOMINGTON, IN)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP2|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
62FPI
MINNB1GMINNESOTA
2-1
71
39
57
65%
48
72
0.0
—
—
HOME
#4AP
5FPI
IUB1GINDIANA
3-0
73
97
97
17%
11
71
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MINN48CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
8
PROE
87
TEMPO
48
EXPLOSIVE8p
8
PROE87p
87
TEMPO48p
48
IU50CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
96
PROE
43
TEMPO
11
EXPLOSIVE96p
96
PROE43p
43
TEMPO11p
11
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MINNRECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.2
MINNESOTA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
IURECORD MATCHES
13-0ACTUALvs12.5-0.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+31.1
INDIANA won 13 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 12.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMINNESOTAINDIANA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE61%Jameson GeersTE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLe'Meke BrockingtonWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDrew BiberTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB51%Koi PerichPORTAL · OREGON · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarius GreenDB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZa'Quan BryanCB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL48%Deven EasternDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen Logan-ReddingDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRushawn LawrenceDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB46%Fame IjeboiPORTAL · PURDUE · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam DavisRB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB39%Devon WilliamsLB · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL36%Dylan RayOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcellus MarshallOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEPerry Thompson · PORTAL ★4 · AUBURNNoah Jennings · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATIQuayd Hendryx · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBAydan West · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEJustin Hopkins · SIGNEE ★3Jordan Lampkins · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLXion Chapman · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDA INTERNATIONALSid Kaba · PORTAL ★3 · MARSHALLAaden Aytch · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBRyan Estrada · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
LBHudson Dunn · SIGNEE ★3Angel Luciano · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBennett Warren · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEEAndrew Trout · SIGNEE ★4Gavin Meier · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MINNESOTA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
55.589 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
60.489 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
52.478 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5959657863 OF 6 GRADED
RB5959825396 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE454571482014 OF 20 GRADED
OL606066581712 OF 17 GRADED
DL676776512316 OF 23 GRADED
LB69695693107 OF 10 GRADED
DB494969682115 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE71st71
BLUE-CHIP RATIO18%68
RECRUITING CLASS#28 · 6/31 BC80
CLASS RANK TREND+9 · 3 CYCLES68
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 19 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 10th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
IUCURT CIGNETTI3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6666
PACE
7474
PASS RATE
2121
EXPLOSIVENESS
2828
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4343
HAVOC
100100
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MINNP.J. FLECK10TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4040
PACE
2020
PASS RATE
2828
EXPLOSIVENESS
44
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
55
HAVOC
5454
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMINN OFFENSEIU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMINNESOTA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
49OF 138
TAL
65
PERF
59
RET
78
NATIONAL
8OF 136
RET
25
FULL DEFENSEINDIANA DEFENSE
MINN QUARTERBACKSn=622% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DRAKE LINDSEYQBRET
483RD YR7373★3+9
BRADY PALMERQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—64★3—
MAX SHIKENJANSKIQBRET
374TH YR112★2—
MICHAEL MERDINGERQBPORTAL · LIBERTY
483RD YR—45★3+27 2025
DYLAN WITTKEQBRET
414TH YR—17★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS29% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
8249%21%
LINEBACKERSLB
7692%18%
SECONDARYDB
7574%16%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMINNESOTA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
37OF 138
TAL
66
PERF
60
RET
58
DL
2OF 138
DL RET
49
LB
5OF 138
LB RET
92
FRONT-7INDIANA DEFENSE
MINN OFFENSIVE LINEn=1742% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NATHAN ROYOLRET
713RD YR—93★4+5 2025
GREG JOHNSONOLRET
664TH YR——UNR+35 2025
BRETT CARROLLOLRET
523RD YR—79★3—
JEROME WILLIAMSOLRET
524TH YR—84★4—
DANIEL SHIPPOLRET
502ND YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IU FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS34% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ROLIJAH HARDYLBRET
823RD YR90—UNR+21
STEPHEN DALEYDLRET
824TH YR9964★3+35
TYRIQUE TUCKERDLRET
674TH YR9664★3+1
ISAIAH JONESLBRET
664TH YR8881★3+23
MARIO LANDINODLRET
653RD YR8324★3+1
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMINNESOTA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
35OF 138
TAL
82
PERF
59
RET
53
DL
2OF 138
DL RET
49
LB
5OF 138
LB RET
92
FRONT-7INDIANA DEFENSE
MINN RUNNING BACKSn=947% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
A.J. TURNERRBRET
574TH YR—85★3+35 2025
DARIUS TAYLORRBRET
544TH YR9987★4+4
JARON THOMASRBPORTAL · PURDUE
512ND YR545★3—
XAVIER FORDRBRET
502ND YR2271★3+12
RYAN ESTRADARBTRUE FR
501ST YR—87★4—
SHOW ALL 9
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS31% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558249%21%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.457692%18%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMINNESOTA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
94OF 138
TAL
71
PERF
45
RET
48
DB
1OF 138
DB RET
74
SECONDARYINDIANA DEFENSE
MINN PASS CATCHERSn=2052% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAVON TRACYWRRET
554TH YR9978★3+11
GEORGE ROHLTETRUE FR
521ST YR—48★3—
HAYDEN MOOREWRTRUE FR
521ST YR—66★3—
QUAYD HENDRYXWRTRUE FR
521ST YR—88★4—
ROMAN VOSSTETRUE FR
521ST YR—88★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IU SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM26% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
QUAN SANKSDBTRUE FR
683RD YR8564★3+12
PRESTON ZACHMANDBPORTAL · WISCONSIN
564TH YR9864★3+24
JAMARI SHARPEDBRET
524TH YR9869★3-10
BYRON BALDWIN JR.DBRET
512ND YR3491★4—
JAYLEN BELLDBRET
502ND YR3769★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MINN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
51.1
50.0
— OFFENSE
60.0
63.3
— DEFENSE
42.2
36.7
SP+ OVERALL
4.7
25.4
FPI
0.9
24.6
ELO
1484
2121
TALENT
729
735
PRODUCTION
71
97
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−10
−47
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.18
0.23
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MINN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IU
OFF EFFICIENCY
32
98
DEF EFFICIENCY
27
96
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
8
46
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
49
15
FINISHING DRIVES
54
98
FIELD POSITION
22
21
TURNOVER MARGIN
64
100
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MINN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IU
PASS RATE
57.4%
34.5%
PACE
27.7s
31.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
49.7%
71.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
79.2%
50.0%
PLAYS / GAME
65.0
57.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
7.7%
7.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MINN, ORANGE = IU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE