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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›NU @ ORE›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NORTHWESTERN
OREGON
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|AUTZEN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP42|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
57FPI
NUB1GNORTHWESTERN
1-0
57
56
59
89%
8
82
0.0
—
—
HOME
#6AP
13FPI
OREB1GOREGON
1-1
99
90
94
75%
35
85
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
NU45CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
93
PROE
33
TEMPO
8
EXPLOSIVE93p
93
PROE33p
33
TEMPO8p
8
ORE65CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
97
PROE
62
TEMPO
35
EXPLOSIVE97p
97
PROE62p
62
TEMPO35p
35
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
NURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.6
NORTHWESTERN won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ORERECORD MATCHES
11-1ACTUALvs10.8-1.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+23.3
OREGON won 11 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNORTHWESTERNOREGON2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB98%Preston StoneQB · 98% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL57%Carmine BastoneDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNajee StoryDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAidan HubbardDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL55%Caleb TiernanDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEvan BeerntsenDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMartes LewisOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB49%Mac UihleinLB · 45% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE39%Lawson AlbrightTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHunter WelcingTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB37%Garner WallaceDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFred Davis IIDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB10%Cam PorterRB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBAidan Chiles · PORTAL ★4 · MICHIGAN STATENicco Marchiol · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAJohnny O'Brien · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLDominic Kirks · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATENick Zalewski · SIGNEE ★3Tre Hoskins · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLGrant Seagren · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEArkel Anugwom · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMAOwen Fors · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBKobie McKinzie · PORTAL ★4 · OKLAHOMAMax Mohring · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TELuke Dehnicke · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTA DULUTHJaden McDuffie · SIGNEE ★4Keaton Reinke · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBBrenden Deasfernandes · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL MICHIGANGabe Davis-Ray · SIGNEE ★3Jaden Vaughn · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBSean Morris II · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NORTHWESTERN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
56.992 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
61.993 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
53.783 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB444492071 OF 7 GRADED
RB5252576473 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE5656575122CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL696962021CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL52525870247 OF 24 GRADED
LB41417448144 OF 14 GRADED
DB50506388226 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE57th57
BLUE-CHIP RATIO8%38
RECRUITING CLASS#52 · 2/22 BC62
CLASS RANK TREND+28 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 17 IN / 8 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
OREDAN LANNING5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7979
PACE
7272
PASS RATE
4242
EXPLOSIVENESS
3434
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HAVOC
8080
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NUDAVID BRAUN4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6060
PACE
2121
PASS RATE
6666
EXPLOSIVENESS
1616
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2424
HAVOC
4242
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNU OFFENSEORE OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNORTHWESTERN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
99OF 138
TAL
92
PERF
44
RET
0
NATIONAL
14OF 136
RET
33
FULL DEFENSEOREGON DEFENSE
NU QUARTERBACKSn=7100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AIDAN CHILESQBPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
594TH YR8592★4-7
RYAN BOEQBRET
492ND YR—50★3—
NICCO MARCHIOLQBPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
473RD YR—64★3+2 2025
GAVIN FRAKESQBRET
374TH YR—9★3-22 2022
AIDAN GRAYQBTRUE FR
353RD YR—65★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS21% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5696%56%
LINEBACKERSLB
54100%37%
SECONDARYDB
6864%36%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNORTHWESTERN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
16OF 138
TAL
62
PERF
69
RET
0
DL
46OF 138
DL RET
96
LB
44OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7OREGON DEFENSE
NU OFFENSIVE LINEn=21100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EZOMO ORATOKHAIOLRET
812ND YR—60★3+46 2025
JACKSON CARSELLOOLRET
684TH YR—58★3+29 2025
GRANT SEAGRENOLPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
543RD YR—64★3-21 2025
IDRYS COTTONOLRET
522ND YR—65★3—
ARKEL ANUGWOMOLPORTAL · ALABAMA
523RD YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS3% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEAR ALEXANDERDLRET
864TH YR9897★40
TEITUM TUIOTILBRET
774TH YR9881★3+5
D'ANTRE ROBINSONDLPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
753RD YR7498★4-22
A'MAURI WASHINGTONDLRET
674TH YR9191★4-16
AYDIN BRELANDDLRET
542ND YR4098★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNORTHWESTERN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
66OF 138
TAL
57
PERF
52
RET
64
DL
46OF 138
DL RET
96
LB
44OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7OREGON DEFENSE
NU RUNNING BACKSn=736% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GAVIN SAWCHUKRBPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
614TH YR9464★3-1
CALEB KOMOLAFERBRET
543RD YR9046★3-21
JOSEPH HIMON IIRBRET
494TH YR8376★3-6
DANIEL ANDERSONRBRET
491ST YR—79★3—
MAR'KEL PORTERRBPORTAL · BOWLING GREEN
472ND YR—45★3-35 2025
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS2% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555696%56%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4554100%37%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENORTHWESTERN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
44OF 138
TAL
57
PERF
56
RET
51
DB
10OF 138
DB RET
64
SECONDARYOREGON DEFENSE
NU PASS CATCHERSn=2249% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GRIFFIN WILDEWRRET
704TH YR8278★3+29
ALEX HONIGTEPORTAL · UCONN
614TH YR5764★3+27
HAYDEN ELIGON IIWRRET
543RD YR8342★3+19
DREW WAGNERWRRET
463RD YR569★2-7
LUKE DEHNICKETETRUE FR
372ND YR—85★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM36% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRANDON FINNEY JR.DBRET
862ND YR8198★4-11
KOI PERICHDBPORTAL · MINNESOTA
773RD YR95100★4+16
NA'EEM OFFORDDBRET
552ND YR55100★5-19
PEYTON WOODYARDDBRET
533RD YR5489★3-33
DAVON BENJAMINDBTRUE FR
521ST YR6—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
41.8
57.3
— OFFENSE
40.2
62.9
— DEFENSE
43.4
51.6
SP+ OVERALL
7.8
22.9
FPI
2.5
17.1
ELO
1549
1811
TALENT
688
984
PRODUCTION
64
99
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−3
−6
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.08
0.62
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
OFF EFFICIENCY
56
89
DEF EFFICIENCY
10
89
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
19
86
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
87
58
FINISHING DRIVES
25
90
FIELD POSITION
61
18
TURNOVER MARGIN
19
88
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
PASS RATE
48.1%
59.7%
PACE
33.3s
29.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
60.0%
49.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
63.2%
76.7%
PLAYS / GAME
54.0
62.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NU, ORANGE = ORE) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE