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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›PUR @ PSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
PURDUE
PENN STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|BEAVER STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP21|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
75FPI
PURB1GPURDUE
1-2
61
70
56
48%
81
80
0.0
—
—
HOME
#14AP
11FPI
PSUB1GPENN STATE
3-0
82
78
79
8%
64
54
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
PUR67CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
64
PROE
56
TEMPO
81
EXPLOSIVE64p
64
PROE56p
56
TEMPO81p
81
PSU56CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
79
PROE
27
TEMPO
64
EXPLOSIVE79p
79
PROE27p
27
TEMPO64p
64
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
PURRECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs2.7-9.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-13.1
PURDUE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
PSURECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs8.6-3.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.3
PENN STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERPURDUEPENN STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE78%Nitro TugglePORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael Jackson IIIWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEJ Horton Jr.WR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB72%Devin MockobeeRB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalachi ThomasRB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB64%Tahj Ra-ElDB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTony GrimesDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMyles SlusherDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB60%Mani PowellLB · 39% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex Sanford Jr.PORTAL · PITTSBURGH · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL52%CJ Nunnally IVDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDemeco KennedyPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamarrion HarklessDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL47%Bakyne ColyOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen St. JohnOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHank PurvisOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB16%Malachi SingletonPORTAL · APP STATE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEAsaad Waseem · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA ATLANTICAr'Mari Towns · SIGNEE ★3Cooper McCutchan · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBJerrick Gibson · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASTravis Terrell Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSON STATEIzaiah Wright · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBJaden Mangham · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGANDon Saunders · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHRaderrion Daniels · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJojo Hayden · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOISPARTIAL
DLElo Modozie · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIACurt Neal · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOISRodney Lora · PORTAL ★3 · UCF3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLBoaz Stanley · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINAJatavius Shivers · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINABrock Brownfield · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBCorin Berry · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · PURDUE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
36.240 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
28.328 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
41.053 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6464618252 OF 5 GRADED
RB4545601264 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE474767422414 OF 24 GRADED
OL595956262010 OF 20 GRADED
DL585862402311 OF 23 GRADED
LB72724945106 OF 10 GRADED
DB55555419258 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE61st61
BLUE-CHIP RATIO14%60
RECRUITING CLASS#55 · 0/21 BC59
CLASS RANK TREND-26 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 29 IN / 24 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
PSUMATT CAMPBELLFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6464
PACE
5555
PASS RATE
6161
EXPLOSIVENESS
8989
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3636
HAVOC
6363
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
PURBARRY ODOM2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2323
PACE
4646
PASS RATE
2020
EXPLOSIVENESS
7171
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3030
HAVOC
5757
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESPUR OFFENSEPSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBPURDUE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
32OF 138
TAL
61
PERF
64
RET
82
NATIONAL
35OF 136
RET
13
FULL DEFENSEPENN STATE DEFENSE
PUR QUARTERBACKSn=518% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RYAN BROWNEQBRET
533RD YR7964★3-23
EVANS CHUBAQBRET
472ND YR—45★3—
BENNETT MEREDITHQBRET
484TH YR—64★3—
GARYT ODOMQBRET
351ST YR—37★3—
CORIN BERRYQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—71★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS60% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6340%40%
LINEBACKERSLB
6140%25%
SECONDARYDB
6039%24%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLPURDUE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
44OF 138
TAL
56
PERF
59
RET
26
DL
26OF 138
DL RET
40
LB
27OF 138
LB RET
40
FRONT-7PENN STATE DEFENSE
PUR OFFENSIVE LINEn=2074% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NUKU MAFIOLPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
482ND YR—45★3-26 2025
JOEY TANONAOLRET
654TH YR—85★3-3 2025
ETHAN TRENTOLRET
563RD YR—2★2+39 2025
RICO SCHRIEBEROLTRUE FR
521ST YR—55★3—
MASON VICARIOLRET
513RD YR—28★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PSU FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS60% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KEANU WILLIAMSDTPORTAL · UCLA
674TH YR8664★3-45
CALEB BACONLBPORTAL · IOWA STATE
614TH YR9195★4+18
SIALE TAUPAKIDTPORTAL · UCLA
604TH YR7678★3-28
TY BLANDINGDTRET
583RD YR5875★3-10
DALLAS VAKALAHIDTPORTAL · UTAH
543RD YR7178★3-23
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBPURDUE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
105OF 138
TAL
60
PERF
45
RET
12
DL
26OF 138
DL RET
40
LB
27OF 138
LB RET
40
FRONT-7PENN STATE DEFENSE
PUR RUNNING BACKSn=688% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JERRICK GIBSONRBPORTAL · TEXAS
512ND YR6785★3-7
FAME IJEBOIRBPORTAL · MINNESOTA
482ND YR6445★3-13
TRAVIS TERRELL JR.RBPORTAL · JACKSON STATE
463RD YR—64★3-58
ANTONIO HARRISRBRET
433RD YR55—UNR+18
IZAIAH WRIGHTRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—79★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS60% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556340%40%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456140%25%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEPURDUE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
82OF 138
TAL
67
PERF
47
RET
42
DB
28OF 138
DB RET
39
SECONDARYPENN STATE DEFENSE
PUR PASS CATCHERSn=2458% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ASAAD WASEEMWRPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
573RD YR8164★3+16
LUCA PUCCINELLITERET
522ND YR—64★3—
TRA'MAR HARRISWRRET
502ND YR1478★3—
GEORGE BURHENNTERET
493RD YR5172★3+16
AR'MARI TOWNSTETRUE FR
491ST YR—77★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PSU SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM61% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARCUS NEAL JR.SPORTAL · IOWA STATE
883RD YR8592★4+14
DARYUS DIXSONCBRET
802ND YR6195★4+1
AUDAVION COLLINSCBRET
684TH YR8565★3-24
JAMISON PATTONSPORTAL · IOWA STATE
674TH YR8878★3-2
ZION TRACYCBRET
564TH YR9084★4-5
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
PUR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
48.1
52.7
— OFFENSE
54.5
57.9
— DEFENSE
41.7
47.5
SP+ OVERALL
-1.2
17.7
FPI
-1.6
18.2
ELO
1311
1933
TALENT
698
774
PRODUCTION
44
88
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+22
+7
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.14
0.37
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
PUR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
47
82
DEF EFFICIENCY
6
57
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
44
26
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
55
77
FINISHING DRIVES
17
88
FIELD POSITION
83
10
TURNOVER MARGIN
15
47
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
PUR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PSU
PASS RATE
53.1%
40.6%
PACE
25.6s
26.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
54.1%
67.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
74.1%
72.1%
PLAYS / GAME
70.3
67.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
7.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = PUR, ORANGE = PSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE