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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›MICH @ RUTG›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MICHIGAN
RUTGERS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|SHI STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP27|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
22FPI
MICHB1GMICHIGAN
2-0
93
81
69
69%
2
89
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
98FPI
RUTGB1GRUTGERS
0-2
66
88
8
44%
33
67
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MICH31CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
69
PROE
21
TEMPO
2
EXPLOSIVE69p
69
PROE21p
21
TEMPO2p
2
RUTG60CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
93
PROE
54
TEMPO
33
EXPLOSIVE93p
93
PROE54p
54
TEMPO33p
33
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MICHRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.6-3.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.9
MICHIGAN won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
RUTGRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.3-6.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.2
RUTGERS won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMICHIGANRUTGERS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB83%Jimmy RolderDRAFTED · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONErnest HausmannLB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaishawn BarhamDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL58%Rayshaun BennyDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDerrick MooreDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTJ GuyEDGE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE54%Donaven McCulleyWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarlin KleinDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMax BredesonDRAFTED · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB51%TJ MetcalfPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandyn HillmanPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden ManghamPORTAL · PURDUE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB36%Justice HaynesPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL33%Greg CrippenOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGiovanni El-HadiOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB1%Jadyn DavisPORTAL · EAST TENNESSEE STATE · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBAden Reeder · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLJohn Henry Daley · PORTAL ★4 · UTAHCarter Meadows · SIGNEE ★5Titan Davis · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJJ Buchanan · PORTAL ★4 · UTAHTravis Johnson · SIGNEE ★4Mason Bonner · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBSmith Snowden · PORTAL ★4 · UTAHSalesi Moa · PORTAL ★4 · UTAHJamarion Vincent · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBTaylor Tatum · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMASavion Hiter · SIGNEE ★5Jonathan Brown · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLMalakai Lee · SIGNEE ★4Marky Walbridge · SIGNEE ★4Ace Hamilton · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
QBTommy Carr · SIGNEE ★4Brady Smigiel · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MICHIGAN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
45.667 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
55.583 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
39.548 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB656510010051 OF 5 GRADED
RB7070947283 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE717192682210 OF 22 GRADED
OL67678498198 OF 19 GRADED
DL52528575199 OF 19 GRADED
LB61616917145 OF 14 GRADED
DB64647956218 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE93rd93
BLUE-CHIP RATIO53%89
RECRUITING CLASS#12 · 13/24 BC92
CLASS RANK TREND+4 · 3 CYCLES58
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-4 · 16 IN / 32 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
RUTGGREG SCHIANO7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2020
PACE
4646
PASS RATE
1818
EXPLOSIVENESS
1010
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6161
HAVOC
2626
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MICHKYLE WHITTINGHAMFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2828
PACE
6060
PASS RATE
1717
EXPLOSIVENESS
2525
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7171
HAVOC
9090
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMICH OFFENSERUTG OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
29OF 138
TAL
100
PERF
65
RET
100
NATIONAL
121OF 136
RET
13
FULL DEFENSERUTGERS DEFENSE
MICH QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRYCE UNDERWOODQBRET
612ND YR73100★5-12 2025
BRAYDEN FOWLER-NICOLOSIQBPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
474TH YR—45★3-4 2025
BRADY SMIGIELQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—86★4—
TOMMY CARRQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—89★4—
CHASE HERBSTREITQBRET
352ND YR—34★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RUTG DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 64 PLAYERS51% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4535%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
3253%14%
SECONDARYDB
4656%17%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
20OF 138
TAL
84
PERF
67
RET
99
DL
88OF 138
DL RET
35
LB
122OF 138
LB RET
53
FRONT-7RUTGERS DEFENSE
MICH OFFENSIVE LINEn=192% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NATHAN EFOBIOLRET
674TH YR—87★4+23 2025
JAKE GUARNERAOLRET
613RD YR—97★4+21 2025
ANDREW SPRAGUEOLRET
543RD YR—95★4+1 2025
ANDREW BABALOLAOLRET
502ND YR—99★5—
BLAKE FRAZIEROLRET
503RD YR—93★4-45 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RUTG FRONT-7n=35 · 2 ROOMS58% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RONDO PORTERDLPORTAL · APP STATE
834TH YR7828★3+5
TY MORRISLBPORTAL · RICE
594TH YR9745★3+23
MALACHI DAVISDLPORTAL · TOLEDO
574TH YR8664★3+38
FARELL GNAGODLRET
573RD YR4542★3—
SEKOU KROMAHDLTRUE FR
554TH YR7364★3+18
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
11OF 138
TAL
94
PERF
70
RET
72
DL
88OF 138
DL RET
35
LB
122OF 138
LB RET
53
FRONT-7RUTGERS DEFENSE
MICH RUNNING BACKSn=828% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JORDAN MARSHALLRBRET
893RD YR8497★4+15
BRYSON KUZDZALRBRET
514TH YR—6★2-9 2025
SAVION HITERRBTRUE FR
481ST YR14100★5—
MICAH KA'APANARBRET
523RD YR—81★3-49 2025
TOMAS O'MEARARBRET
523RD YR——UNR+35 2025
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RUTG FRONT-72 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS57% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554535%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453253%14%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
11OF 138
TAL
92
PERF
71
RET
68
DB
103OF 138
DB RET
56
SECONDARYRUTGERS DEFENSE
MICH PASS CATCHERSn=2232% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANDREW MARSHWRRET
712ND YR7295★4+24
JALEN HOFFMANTERET
584TH YR17—UNR—
JJ BUCHANANWRPORTAL · UTAH
562ND YR7399★4+32
KENDRICK BELLWRRET
424TH YR—70★3-55 2025
HOGAN HANSENTERET
603RD YR—88★4-4 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RUTG SECONDARYn=29 · 1 ROOM44% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LATRELL NOELDBRET
522ND YR3752★3—
BRADLEE JONESDBPORTAL · THE CITADEL
524TH YR3564★3—
JESSE OFURIEDBRET
524TH YR4365★3—
KAJ SANDERSDBRET
513RD YR—85★4+7 2025
KEVIN LEVYDBRET
493RD YR4881★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MICH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
RUTG
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
45.8
36.0
— OFFENSE
47.2
39.8
— DEFENSE
44.3
32.1
SP+ OVERALL
13.8
-2.8
FPI
14.4
-7.3
ELO
1702
1371
TALENT
890
709
PRODUCTION
90
56
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+3
+4
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.53
0.15
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MICH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
RUTG
OFF EFFICIENCY
76
81
DEF EFFICIENCY
49
6
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
6
41
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
94
13
FINISHING DRIVES
56
30
FIELD POSITION
18
74
TURNOVER MARGIN
73
68
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MICH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
RUTG
PASS RATE
41.2%
53.7%
PACE
35.3s
29.3s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
66.7%
52.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
57.6%
68.6%
PLAYS / GAME
51.0
61.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MICH, ORANGE = RUTG) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE