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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›NEV @ UCLA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NEVADA
UCLA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|ROSE BOWLNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP68|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
88FPI
NEVMWCNEVADA
1-1
15
15
33
36%
37
43
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
38FPI
UCLAB1GUCLA
2-0
82
56
55
57%
21
78
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
NEV40CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
72
PROE
11
TEMPO
37
EXPLOSIVE72p
72
PROE11p
11
TEMPO37p
37
UCLA37CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
39
PROE
51
TEMPO
21
EXPLOSIVE39p
39
PROE51p
51
TEMPO21p
21
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
NEVRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.1-8.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-9.9
NEVADA won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UCLARECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.3-9.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-15.3
UCLA won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNEVADAUCLA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE86%Jett CarpenterPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJace HenryTE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcus BellonWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB84%Stone CombsPORTAL · RICE · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNakian JacksonPORTAL · JAMES MADISON · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin HarnetiauxPORTAL · RICE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB76%Murvin Kenion IIIDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAJ OdumsCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEdward RhamboDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB58%Caleb RamseurRB · 57% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL56%Thomas WitteDT · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJonathan MaldonadoPORTAL · OLE MISS · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNelson RopatiDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL51%Andrew MadrigalOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh GrabowskiOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrenton ScottOL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB31%Chubba PurdyQB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEDonnie Cheers · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATEIsaiah Williams · SIGNEE ★3Amari Nash · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBPoasa Utu · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATECJ Mooring · SIGNEE ★3Jaxon Cannida · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJaylen Webb · PORTAL ★3 · BOISE STATEJoey Thomas III · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBBronwyn Rios · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLMatt Perez · SIGNEE ★3Sam Davidson IV · SIGNEE ★3Jeremiah Nonu · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLEthan Newman · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHISTerrence Johnson · SIGNEE ★3Colton Hogge · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
QBDeven Vigue · SIGNEE ★3Reeve Slone · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NEVADA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
25.816 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
24.222 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
26.717 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB33335510041 OF 4 GRADED
RB5050419775 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE3737311322CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL404047016CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL40402283189 OF 18 GRADED
LB38383742104 OF 10 GRADED
DB484833382110 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE15th15
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%18
RECRUITING CLASS#98 · 0/24 BC27
CLASS RANK TREND+29 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 14 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UCLABOB CHESNEYFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3131
PACE
7878
PASS RATE
1111
EXPLOSIVENESS
5353
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5454
HAVOC
9797
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NEVJEFF CHOATE3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1212
PACE
77
PASS RATE
2626
EXPLOSIVENESS
2424
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7878
HAVOC
1515
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNEV OFFENSEUCLA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNEVADA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
129OF 138
TAL
55
PERF
33
RET
100
NATIONAL
78OF 136
RET
26
FULL DEFENSEUCLA DEFENSE
NEV QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LUKE DUNCANQBPORTAL · UCLA
523RD YR—82★3+1 2025
AJ BIANCOQBRET
444TH YR—36★3-26 2025
CARTER JONESQBRET
412ND YR5855★3+3
REEVE SLONEQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—36★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCLA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS64% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
2619%18%
LINEBACKERSLB
3259%13%
SECONDARYDB
5837%30%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNEVADA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
109OF 138
TAL
47
PERF
40
RET
0
DL
129OF 138
DL RET
19
LB
122OF 138
LB RET
59
FRONT-7UCLA DEFENSE
NEV OFFENSIVE LINEn=16100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SNOOP LEOTA-AMAAMAOLRET
504TH YR—17★3+39 2025
JACK FOSTEROLRET
504TH YR—45★3-9 2025
ZACH COCHNAUEROLRET
464TH YR—78★3-9 2025
ETHAN NEWMANOLPORTAL · MEMPHIS
463RD YR—45★3+43 2025
HENRY SELLARDSOLRET
432ND YR—27★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCLA FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS65% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SAHIR WESTDLPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
842ND YR7685★3+28
AIDEN GOBAIRADLPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
804TH YR7185★3+4
DAROLD DENGOHEDLPORTAL · RUTGERS
733RD YR6145★3-17
TRENT HENDRICKLBPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
624TH YR100—UNR+22
SAMMY OMOSIGHOLBPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
564TH YR8195★4+29
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNEVADA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
79OF 138
TAL
41
PERF
50
RET
97
DL
129OF 138
DL RET
19
LB
122OF 138
LB RET
59
FRONT-7UCLA DEFENSE
NEV RUNNING BACKSn=73% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CARTER JACKSONRBRET
521ST YR2464★3+33
DOMINIC KELLEYRBRET
482ND YR4442★3+23
KY WOODSRBRET
474TH YR4322★3-4
HERSCHEL TURNERRBRET
463RD YR7845★3-9
JANERIOUS JACKSONRBTRUE FR
383RD YR128★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCLA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS63% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552619%18%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453259%13%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENEVADA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
126OF 138
TAL
31
PERF
37
RET
13
DB
37OF 138
DB RET
37
SECONDARYUCLA DEFENSE
NEV PASS CATCHERSn=2287% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DJ ASIASITERET
501ST YR854★3—
MARSHAUN BROWNWRRET
463RD YR7032★3-4
GARY GIVENS IIIWRTRUE FR
413RD YR68—UNR+25
GERICK ROBINSONWRRET
404TH YR—21★3—
DONNIE CHEERSWRPORTAL · SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
373RD YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCLA SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM63% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TA'SHAWN JAMESDBPORTAL · IOWA STATE
783RD YR8164★3+27
SCOOTER JACKSONDBRET
694TH YR7264★3-5
RODRICK PLEASANTDBRET
653RD YR8178★3-3
OSIRIS GILBERTDBPORTAL · UCONN
622ND YR5745★3+5
TAO JOHNSONDBPORTAL · UTAH
524TH YR10078★3+38
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NEV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCLA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
43.3
49.5
— OFFENSE
42.1
61.6
— DEFENSE
44.6
37.4
SP+ OVERALL
-7.6
9.1
FPI
-5.1
7.0
ELO
1451
1487
TALENT
550
774
PRODUCTION
22
67
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−3
+13
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.03
0.24
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NEV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCLA
OFF EFFICIENCY
12
40
DEF EFFICIENCY
37
1
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
33
17
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
72
90
FINISHING DRIVES
2
11
FIELD POSITION
27
94
TURNOVER MARGIN
3
19
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NEV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCLA
PASS RATE
38.9%
40.5%
PACE
28.6s
31.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
70.6%
70.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
58.5%
75.0%
PLAYS / GAME
63.0
58.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.6%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NEV, ORANGE = UCLA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE