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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›ND @ NAVY›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NOTRE DAME
NAVY
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 12:00 ET|GILLETTE STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP96|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#3AP
3FPI
NDINDNOTRE DAME
2-0
96
87
88
51%
35
66
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
89FPI
NAVYAACNAVY
1-1
0
83
29
14%
54
37
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ND41CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
40
PROE
47
TEMPO
35
EXPLOSIVE40p
40
PROE47p
47
TEMPO35p
35
NAVY34CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
45
PROE
2
TEMPO
54
EXPLOSIVE45p
45
PROE2p
2
TEMPO54p
54
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
NDRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs10.6-1.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+24.4
NOTRE DAME won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NAVYRECORD OVERSTATES
10-2ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.2
NAVY won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNOTRE DAMENAVY2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB91%Jeremiyah LoveDRAFTED · 58% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJadarian PriceDRAFTED · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE59%Eli RaridonDRAFTED · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalachi FieldsDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWill PaulingWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL51%Jared DawsonDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDonovan HinishDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan BotelhoDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL29%Aamil WagnerOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBilly SchrauthDRAFTED · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB19%Jalen StromanS · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeVonta SmithCB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB8%Kenny MincheyPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB1%Bodie KahounPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBJavian Osborne · SIGNEE ★4Jonaz Walton · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TEQuincy Porter · PORTAL ★4 · OHIO STATEMylan Graham · PORTAL ★4 · OHIO STATEIan Premer · SIGNEE ★52 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLFrancis Brewu · PORTAL ★4 · PITTSBURGHTionne Gray · PORTAL ★4 · OREGONKeon Keeley · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLGrayson McKeogh · SIGNEE ★4Ben Nichols · SIGNEE ★4Tyler Merrill · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBJayden Sanders · PORTAL ★4 · MICHIGANDJ McKinney · PORTAL ★4 · COLORADOKhary Adams · SIGNEE ★53 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBTeddy Jarrard · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
LBThomas Davis Jr. · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NOTRE DAME
CARRIED COMPOSITE
68.699 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
59.688 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
73.499 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB60609710041 OF 4 GRADED
RB7373919073 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE5858813925CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL707090022CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL70709459209 OF 20 GRADED
LB626295100113 OF 11 GRADED
DB63638876187 OF 18 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE96th96
BLUE-CHIP RATIO69%97
RECRUITING CLASS#5 · 24/30 BC97
CLASS RANK TREND+4 · 3 CYCLES58
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+4 · 7 IN / 15 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NAVYBRIAN NEWBERRY4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
22
PACE
77
PASS RATE
11
EXPLOSIVENESS
4848
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7272
HAVOC
2525
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NDMARCUS FREEMAN5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4747
PACE
1818
PASS RATE
1616
EXPLOSIVENESS
7777
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8181
HAVOC
8484
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESND OFFENSENAVY OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNOTRE DAME OFFENSE
NATIONAL
44OF 138
TAL
97
PERF
60
RET
100
NATIONAL
95OF 136
RET
28
FULL DEFENSENAVY DEFENSE
ND QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CJ CARRQBRET
772ND YR6697★4+29
NOAH GRUBBSQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—85★4—
TEDDY JARRARDQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—91★4—
BLAKE HEBERTQBRET
471ST YR—87★4—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NAVY DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 93 PLAYERS20% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6080%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
51100%0%
SECONDARYDB
4174%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNOTRE DAME OFFENSE
NATIONAL
13OF 138
TAL
90
PERF
70
RET
0
DL
31OF 138
DL RET
80
LB
56OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7NAVY DEFENSE
ND OFFENSIVE LINEn=22100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTHONIE KNAPPOLRET
833RD YR—89★4-22 2025
GUERBY LAMBERTOLRET
802ND YR—98★4+34 2025
JOE OTTINGOLRET
583RD YR—86★4+48 2025
ASHTON CRAIGOLRET
544TH YR—80★3-15 2025
DEVAN HOUSTANOLRET
523RD YR—91★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NAVY FRONT-7n=68 · 2 ROOMS12% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARCANTHONY PARKERLBRET
693RD YR81—UNR+11
COLEMAN CAULEYLBRET
574TH YR73—UNR+1
WILL MILLERLBRET
522ND YR20—UNR—
NOLAN MCCAMYLBRET
524TH YR——UNR—
GRIFFEN WILLISDTRET
514TH YR91—UNR-19
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNOTRE DAME OFFENSE
NATIONAL
7OF 138
TAL
91
PERF
73
RET
90
DL
31OF 138
DL RET
80
LB
56OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7NAVY DEFENSE
ND RUNNING BACKSn=710% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANEYAS WILLIAMSRBRET
613RD YR5191★4+29
KEDREN YOUNGRBRET
522ND YR3495★4+25
JONAZ WALTONRBTRUE FR
471ST YR—95★4—
JAVIAN OSBORNERBTRUE FR
471ST YR—96★4—
NOLAN JAMES JR.RBRET
451ST YR2889★4-56
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NAVY FRONT-72 ROOMS · 68 PLAYERS11% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556080%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4551100%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENOTRE DAME OFFENSE
NATIONAL
39OF 138
TAL
81
PERF
58
RET
39
DB
122OF 138
DB RET
74
SECONDARYNAVY DEFENSE
ND PASS CATCHERSn=2561% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JORDAN FAISONWRRET
694TH YR93—UNR+30
JADEN GREATHOUSEWRRET
653RD YR8995★4+12
TY WASHINGTONTERET
534TH YR5728★3+45
JAMES FLANIGANTERET
521ST YR995★4—
MICAH GILBERTWRRET
512ND YR3791★4+21
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NAVY SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM26% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAM ROBINSONCBRET
562ND YR46—UNR—
NICK BELLCBRET
493RD YR——UNR—
MAXWELL WILLIAMSSRET
483RD YR37—UNR—
IRABONOISE ONIHACBRET
484TH YR76—UNR-35
PHILLIP HAMILTONCBRET
473RD YR——UNR+9 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ND
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NAVY
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
50.5
59.3
— OFFENSE
47.5
77.8
— DEFENSE
53.5
40.7
SP+ OVERALL
29.0
-0.7
FPI
27.9
-5.3
ELO
2070
1513
TALENT
953
196
PRODUCTION
99
54
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−3
−53
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.69
0.00
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ND
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NAVY
OFF EFFICIENCY
83
94
DEF EFFICIENCY
90
61
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
100
52
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
54
11
FINISHING DRIVES
87
70
FIELD POSITION
7
12
TURNOVER MARGIN
98
31
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ND
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NAVY
PASS RATE
50.0%
21.1%
PACE
29.0s
27.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
50.5%
87.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
51.9%
42.1%
PLAYS / GAME
62.0
66.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
5.7%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ND, ORANGE = NAVY) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE