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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›TXST @ BOIS›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TEXAS STATE
BOISE STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 22:00 ET|ALBERTSONS STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP6|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
102FPI
TXSTPACTEXAS STATE
0-2
41
75
14
76%
79
44
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
36FPI
BOISPACBOISE STATE
1-1
47
39
59
66%
77
45
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TXST38CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
14
PROE
20
TEMPO
79
EXPLOSIVE14p
14
PROE20p
20
TEMPO79p
79
BOIS58CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
58
PROE
40
TEMPO
77
EXPLOSIVE58p
58
PROE40p
40
TEMPO77p
77
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TXSTRECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.5
TEXAS STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BOISRECORD MATCHES
9-4ACTUALvs8.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.4
BOISE STATE won 9 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTEXAS STATEBOISE STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB88%Lincoln PareRB · 62% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGreg BurrellPORTAL · CONCORD · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL68%Emeka ObigboOL · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDorion StrawnOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrock RikerOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL63%Kalil AlexanderDE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKamren WashingtonPORTAL · BAYLOR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKenard SnyderDE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB53%Bobby CrosbyS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKhamari TerrellPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden RiosCB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE25%Titus LyonsTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMavin AndersonWR · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB17%Michael Boudoin IIILB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChantz JohnsonPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB1%Keldric LusterPORTAL · BALL STATE · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBJuntavious Harris · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLRasheed Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · TCUWilliam Boone · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINAJaylen Early · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLPhillip Bradford · PORTAL ★3 · MCNEESEJason Patterson · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS SOUTHERNChancellor Owens · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBMichael Patterson · PORTAL ★3 · STEPHEN F. AUSTINDexter Ricks Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · LIBERTYJayden Flournoy · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEDavian Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEZechariah Sample · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATEXavier Warren · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJavante Mackey · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSAS STATEDarius Davis · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBShaker Reisig · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGEEaston Webb · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TEXAS STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
48.175 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
42.758 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
51.074 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5252307652 OF 5 GRADED
RB5353525166 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE464634791911 OF 19 GRADED
OL595945402012 OF 20 GRADED
DL484851542514 OF 25 GRADED
LB40404971108 OF 10 GRADED
DB484835651713 OF 17 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE41st41
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%23
RECRUITING CLASS#74 · 0/16 BC45
CLASS RANK TREND+22 · 3 CYCLES94
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 17 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BOISSPENCER DANIELSON3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4444
PACE
8585
PASS RATE
2424
EXPLOSIVENESS
7575
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7171
HAVOC
8989
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TXSTG.J. KINNE4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4242
PACE
9393
PASS RATE
2424
EXPLOSIVENESS
6060
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8888
HAVOC
8585
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTXST OFFENSEBOIS OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTEXAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
79OF 138
TAL
30
PERF
52
RET
76
NATIONAL
52OF 136
RET
22
FULL DEFENSEBOISE STATE DEFENSE
TXST QUARTERBACKSn=524% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRAD JACKSONQBRET
772ND YR7627★3+33
GAVIN PARKHURSTQBRET
501ST YR1439★3—
SHAKER REISIGQBPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE
471ST YR—45★3—
EASTON WEBBQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—76★3—
STONE WALKERQBTRUE FR
303RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS37% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5047%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
4386%5%
SECONDARYDB
5164%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTEXAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
46OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
59
RET
40
DL
67OF 138
DL RET
47
LB
85OF 138
LB RET
86
FRONT-7BOISE STATE DEFENSE
TXST OFFENSIVE LINEn=2060% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SULLY BURNSOLRET
734TH YR8223★2-16
JUSTIN DELEONOLRET
743RD YR—73★3+43 2025
WILLIAM BOONEOLPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
503RD YR—45★3—
MIKEL UDENGWUOLTRUE FR
503RD YR——UNR—
BAMIDELE BADUSIOLRET
503RD YR—47★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS37% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAYDEN VIRGIN-MORGANLBRET
584TH YR10061★3+22
MICHAEL MADRIEDLRET
553RD YR—53★3-26 2025
LOPEZ SANUSIDLRET
542ND YR5925★3-28
LOGAN BRANTLEYLBPORTAL · KANSAS
523RD YR3628★3—
MANA TUIOTILBRET
522ND YR—52★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTEXAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
58OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
53
RET
51
DL
67OF 138
DL RET
47
LB
85OF 138
LB RET
86
FRONT-7BOISE STATE DEFENSE
TXST RUNNING BACKSn=649% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TAJI ATKINSRBRET
532ND YR3840★3+26
DAVIAN JACKSONRBPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
521ST YR1864★3—
TORRANCE BURGESS JR.RBRET
503RD YR8745★3+36
JUNTAVIOUS HARRISRBTRUE FR
501ST YR1459★3—
JAYLEN JENKINSRBRET
464TH YR7450★3+4
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS35% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555047%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454386%5%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETEXAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
86OF 138
TAL
34
PERF
46
RET
79
DB
69OF 138
DB RET
64
SECONDARYBOISE STATE DEFENSE
TXST PASS CATCHERSn=1921% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEAU SPARKSWRRET
834TH YR939★3+34
CHRIS DAWN JR.WRRET
774TH YR9551★3+32
BLAKE SMITHTERET
564TH YR5928★3-7
TUCKER CUSANOWRRET
521ST YR—42★3—
JAKE SIMPSONTERET
503RD YR—35★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM36% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SHERROD SMITHDBRET
673RD YR57—UNR+17
JADEN MICKEYDBRET
554TH YR9464★3-5
ROMAN TILLMONDBPORTAL · SOUTH DAKOTA
513RD YR1564★3—
TRAVIS ANDERSONDBRET
502ND YR4251★3—
JERICO WASHINGTON JR.DBPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE
493RD YR9817★3-27
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BOIS
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
45.1
34.7
— OFFENSE
54.2
40.6
— DEFENSE
36.0
28.8
SP+ OVERALL
-6.5
6.9
FPI
-8.3
8.2
ELO
1438
1609
TALENT
625
641
PRODUCTION
45
64
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−8
−20
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.04
0.04
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BOIS
OFF EFFICIENCY
79
36
DEF EFFICIENCY
56
94
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
87
74
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
26
2
FINISHING DRIVES
73
52
FIELD POSITION
85
24
TURNOVER MARGIN
37
78
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BOIS
PASS RATE
40.1%
42.5%
PACE
25.4s
25.5s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
68.1%
68.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
72.4%
68.3%
PLAYS / GAME
71.0
70.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
5.6%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TXST, ORANGE = BOIS) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE