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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›CSU @ USU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
COLORADO STATE
UTAH STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 15:30 ET|MAVERIK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP35|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
90FPI
CSUPACCOLORADO STATE
2-0
46
36
20
40%
65
50
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
95FPI
USUPACUTAH STATE
0-2
11
42
51
65%
79
49
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
CSU74CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
95
PROE
63
TEMPO
65
EXPLOSIVE95p
95
PROE63p
63
TEMPO65p
65
USU74CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
74
PROE
69
TEMPO
79
EXPLOSIVE74p
74
PROE69p
69
TEMPO79p
79
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
CSURECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs2.8-9.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-12.3
COLORADO STATE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.8-5.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.5
UTAH STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCOLORADO STATEUTAH STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB100%Lloyd AvantPORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen DupreePORTAL · KANSAS · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin MarshallRB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL96%Aaron KarasOL · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian MartinOL · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLiam WortmannOL · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB74%Jackson BrousseauPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 53% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrayden Fowler-NicolosiQB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB71%Owen LongPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob EllisLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPaul TangeloLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE69%Rocky BeersPORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTay LanierWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONArmani WinfieldWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB61%Lemondre JoeDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJake JarmolowichDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJahari RogersDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL60%Andrew LaurichPORTAL · UCONN · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJernias TafiaDL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMoso'oipala TuiteleDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBMel Brown · PORTAL ★3 · UCONNCedric Ross · SIGNEE ★3Damian Moore Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLQuinton Harris · PORTAL ★3 · TCUPayton Stewart · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEMax Vivier · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
QBHauss Hejny · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEDarnell Kelly · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBOumar Diomande · PORTAL ★3 · UCONNJaylen King · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEJuice Vereen · PORTAL ★3 · UCONNPearce Spurlin III · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIANader Chirchi · PORTAL ★3 · UCONN2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBCaleb Presley · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATERichard Mosley III · PORTAL ★3 · STONEHILLElijah Mc-Cantos · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLDesman Manuel · SIGNEE ★3Mickey Williams · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · COLORADO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
29.922 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
18.214 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
36.140 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB393964061 OF 6 GRADED
RB585835082 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE4242503123CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL363653018CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL12123825156 OF 15 GRADED
LB18184443164 OF 16 GRADED
DB38383644225 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE46th46
BLUE-CHIP RATIO10%46
RECRUITING CLASS#73 · 0/26 BC46
CLASS RANK TREND-4 · 3 CYCLES42
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 31 IN / 38 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USUBRONCO MENDENHALL2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6161
PACE
4242
PASS RATE
5858
EXPLOSIVENESS
7373
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2222
HAVOC
99
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CSUJIM MORAFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3434
PACE
3838
PASS RATE
3535
EXPLOSIVENESS
5454
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1111
HAVOC
4141
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCSU OFFENSEUSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCOLORADO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
112OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
39
RET
0
NATIONAL
98OF 136
RET
47
FULL DEFENSEUTAH STATE DEFENSE
CSU QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
HAUSS HEJNYQBPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
512ND YR3664★3+11
K'SAAN FARRARQBTRUE FR
482ND YR——★3—
DARIUS CURRYQBRET
473RD YR—64★3+27 2025
TOMMY POHOLSKYQBRET
304TH YR——UNR—
DARNELL KELLYQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 70 PLAYERS45% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
26100%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
4234%3%
SECONDARYDB
4339%4%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCOLORADO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
120OF 138
TAL
53
PERF
36
RET
0
DL
131OF 138
DL RET
100
LB
89OF 138
LB RET
34
FRONT-7UTAH STATE DEFENSE
CSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=18100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TORIYAN JOHNSONOLPORTAL · UCONN
524TH YR——UNR—
PHILLIP OCONOLRET
523RD YR—44★3—
QUINTON HARRISOLPORTAL · TCU
504TH YR——★3-32 2025
BRADEN HALESOLRET
503RD YR—29★3—
JOHN HOLTHAUSOLRET
443RD YR—25★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USU FRONT-7n=45 · 2 ROOMS26% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRONSON OLEVAO JR.LBRET
623RD YR92—UNR+15
CARSON TUJAGUEDTRET
531ST YR821★2-30
JAMES JENNETTELBPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH
524TH YR4264★3—
HARRISON TAGGARTLBPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
504TH YR8864★3+21
TYREE MORRISDTRET
483RD YR8028★3-12
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCOLORADO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
42OF 138
TAL
35
PERF
58
RET
0
DL
131OF 138
DL RET
100
LB
89OF 138
LB RET
34
FRONT-7UTAH STATE DEFENSE
CSU RUNNING BACKSn=8100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DURELL ROBINSONRBPORTAL · AUBURN
754TH YR8028★3+29
MEL BROWNRBTRUE FR
514TH YR7845★3+27
MALICHI GREAVESRBTRUE FR
482ND YR——★3—
OLIVER LUNDBERGRBTRUE FR
373RD YR—17★3+19
CEDRIC ROSSRBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 45 PLAYERS29% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.5526100%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454234%3%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECOLORADO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
106OF 138
TAL
50
PERF
42
RET
31
DB
117OF 138
DB RET
39
SECONDARYUTAH STATE DEFENSE
CSU PASS CATCHERSn=2369% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TERRENCE SMITH JR.WRTRUE FR
512ND YR2625★3—
DOMINIC TOYTEPORTAL · UCONN
503RD YR2917★3—
PEARCE SPURLIN IIITEPORTAL · GEORGIA
493RD YR——★3—
JACKSON HARPERWRTRUE FR
484TH YR32—UNR-28
LAVON BROWNWRRET
464TH YR—28★3-10 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USU SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM61% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BREVIN HAMBLINSRET
703RD YR9017★3-18
D'ANGELO MAYESCBRET
593RD YR64—UNR-33
MARKIE GRANTCBPORTAL · WYOMING
562ND YR6028★3-4
BOBBY ARNOLDSRET
543RD YR65—UNR-27
KYE STOKESCBPORTAL · CINCINNATI
494TH YR——★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
51.1
40.8
— OFFENSE
59.6
37.4
— DEFENSE
42.7
44.3
SP+ OVERALL
-6.7
-7.1
FPI
-5.4
-6.8
ELO
1327
1381
TALENT
640
544
PRODUCTION
23
31
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+11
−10
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.10
0.04
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USU
OFF EFFICIENCY
25
38
DEF EFFICIENCY
12
35
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
37
88
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
33
43
FINISHING DRIVES
32
77
FIELD POSITION
95
69
TURNOVER MARGIN
43
67
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USU
PASS RATE
52.9%
52.1%
PACE
26.5s
25.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
54.0%
53.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
72.2%
62.5%
PLAYS / GAME
68.0
71.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.4%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CSU, ORANGE = USU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE