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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›ORST @ FRES›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
OREGON STATE
FRESNO STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|VALLEY CHILDREN'S STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
85FPI
ORSTPACOREGON STATE
0-2
45
54
45
58%
81
47
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
72FPI
FRESPACFRESNO STATE
1-1
37
17
64
38%
4
34
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ORST79CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
99
PROE
57
TEMPO
81
EXPLOSIVE99p
99
PROE57p
57
TEMPO81p
81
FRES36CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
76
PROE
28
TEMPO
4
EXPLOSIVE76p
76
PROE28p
28
TEMPO4p
4
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ORSTRECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs2.9-9.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.3
OREGON STATE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FRESRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.9-4.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.3
FRESNO STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROREGON STATEFRESNO STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB83%Anthony HankersonRB · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSalahadin AllahRB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE71%Trent WalkerPORTAL · HOUSTON · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryce CaufieldTE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavid Wells Jr.PORTAL · TULSA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL68%Van WellsC · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyan BergerOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler MoranoOL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB55%Dexter FosterPORTAL · NEBRASKA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNikko TaylorLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShamar MeiklePORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL51%Thomas CollinsPORTAL · UCF · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKai WallinPORTAL · SAN DIEGO STATE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTahjae MullixDL · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB50%Skyler ThomasDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalil TuckerPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKobe SingletonDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB38%Gabarri JohnsonPORTAL · SAMFORD · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTristan Ti'aPORTAL · AUBURN · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBAJ Newberry · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTTre Garrison · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEAeryn Hampton · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMAAdonis McDaniel · PORTAL ★3 · MERCEREric Olsen · PORTAL ★3 · UTAH TECH3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLKwan Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN ILLINOISBroderick Shull · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNCarter Guillaume · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJa’Bari Odoemenem · PORTAL ★3 · DUQUESNEDylan Layne · PORTAL ★3 · IDAHOJeremiah Brown · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLDaniel Matagi · PORTAL ★3 · PORTLAND STATEIsh Findlayter · PORTAL ★3 · DUQUESNEAdel Dorr · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBIsaiah Houi · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN ILLINOISKai Wheaton · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBBraden Atkinson · PORTAL ★3 · MERCERBrady Jones · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN MICHIGANINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OREGON STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
41.855 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
32.540 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
47.966 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB616164051 OF 5 GRADED
RB4444544874 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE53534316218 OF 21 GRADED
OL57574173185 OF 18 GRADED
DL47475953125 OF 12 GRADED
LB414149542011 OF 20 GRADED
DB505057422012 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE45th45
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%39
RECRUITING CLASS#100 · 0/12 BC26
CLASS RANK TREND-13 · 3 CYCLES24
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 20 IN / 35 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FRESMATT ENTZ2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3333
PACE
3737
PASS RATE
3030
EXPLOSIVENESS
2222
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4646
HAVOC
7979
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ORSTJAMARCUS SHEPHARDFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESORST OFFENSEFRES OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOREGON STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
42OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
61
RET
0
NATIONAL
59OF 136
RET
26
FULL DEFENSEFRESNO STATE DEFENSE
ORST QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRADEN ATKINSONQBPORTAL · MERCER
502ND YR4064★3+16
BRADY JONESQBPORTAL · WESTERN MICHIGAN
424TH YR—28★3-54 2025
MAALIK MURPHYQBRET
474TH YR—97★4-18 2025
ISAIAH ARRIAZAQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
DANNY LEARYQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS17% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4975%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
49100%0%
SECONDARYDB
5682%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOREGON STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
50OF 138
TAL
41
PERF
57
RET
73
DL
72OF 138
DL RET
75
LB
65OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7FRESNO STATE DEFENSE
ORST OFFENSIVE LINEn=1827% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TYLER VOLTINOLRET
504TH YR——UNR+14 2025
TEKO SHOATSOLPORTAL · BETHUNE-COOKMAN
493RD YR—45★3—
WILL LARKINSOLRET
493RD YR—45★3—
JACOB ANDERSONOLRET
463RD YR——UNR—
CARTER GUILLAUMEOLPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
452ND YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS15% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARTIN OWUSUDLRET
713RD YR5917★3-22
JAHZON JACKSDLRET
564TH YR9432★3-5
MERHAUTI XEPERADLRET
544TH YR7135★3+9
K'VION THUNDERBIRDLBRET
543RD YR6328★30
LOGAN GOODSPEEDDLRET
522ND YR25—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOREGON STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
108OF 138
TAL
54
PERF
44
RET
48
DL
72OF 138
DL RET
75
LB
65OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7FRESNO STATE DEFENSE
ORST RUNNING BACKSn=752% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AJ NEWBERRYRBPORTAL · VANDERBILT
554TH YR6045★3-2
JAKE REICHLERBRET
514TH YR—17★3+38 2025
KOURDEY GLASSRBRET
501ST YR2066★3—
CORNELL HATCHER JR.RBRET
472ND YR5048★3+8
TRE GARRISONRBTRUE FR
441ST YR5—★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS14% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554975%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4549100%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOREGON STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
53OF 138
TAL
43
PERF
53
RET
16
DB
47OF 138
DB RET
82
SECONDARYFRESNO STATE DEFENSE
ORST PASS CATCHERSn=2184% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DECORION TEMPLETEPORTAL · CENTRAL MICHIGAN
644TH YR8727★3-28
JESSE LEGREEWRTRUE FR
521ST YR——UNR—
CYNAI THOMASWRTRUE FR
521ST YR——UNR—
JACKSON BOWERSTERET
523RD YR—84★4—
GABE MILBOURNTERET
514TH YR——UNR+16 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM18% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SIMEON HARRISDBRET
814TH YR9857★3+4
ANDRE COBBDBRET
614TH YR——UNR—
TAYLOR POWELLDBPORTAL · NORTHERN ILLINOIS
582ND YR5944★3+29
LOYALL MOUZONDBRET
492ND YR4463★3—
RJ REGANDBRET
484TH YR4928★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ORST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
41.3
31.0
— OFFENSE
54.4
29.0
— DEFENSE
28.2
33.0
SP+ OVERALL
-4.6
-0.8
FPI
-4.5
-0.9
ELO
1285
1591
TALENT
636
610
PRODUCTION
36
47
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+27
−20
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.09
0.01
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ORST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
OFF EFFICIENCY
50
23
DEF EFFICIENCY
71
78
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
1
36
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
4
83
FINISHING DRIVES
3
19
FIELD POSITION
66
3
TURNOVER MARGIN
5
65
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ORST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
PASS RATE
73.4%
45.6%
PACE
25.2s
35.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
39.1%
65.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
92.9%
80.0%
PLAYS / GAME
71.5
51.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
11.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ORST, ORANGE = FRES) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE