SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2026 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›CONN @ AF›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
UCONN
AIR FORCE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 15:00 ET|FALCON STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP47|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
113FPI
CONNINDUCONN
1-1
47
64
13
2%
27
46
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
91FPI
AFMWCAIR FORCE
1-1
1
76
0
57%
81
38
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
CONN71CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
96
PROE
91
TEMPO
27
EXPLOSIVE96p
96
PROE91p
91
TEMPO27p
27
AF29CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
6
PROE
1
TEMPO
81
EXPLOSIVE6p
6
PROE1p
1
TEMPO81p
81
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
CONNRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+11.1
UCONN won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
AFRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.5
AIR FORCE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUCONNAIR FORCE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB100%Cam EdwardsPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 63% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONVictor RosaPORTAL · OHIO · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMel BrownPORTAL · COLORADO STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB99%D'Mon BrinsonPORTAL · COLORADO STATE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam Chadwick Jr.CB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin PringleDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB99%Joe FagnanoQB · 92% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB98%Oumar DiomandePORTAL · COLORADO STATE · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryun ParhamLB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAaron KeyLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE89%Skyler BellDRAFTED · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex HonigPORTAL · NORTHWESTERN · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReymello MurphyWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION10 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL89%Vincent Carroll-JacksonPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAntoineo Harris Jr.DL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONStephon WrightPORTAL · COLORADO STATE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL87%Wes HoehOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKyle JuergensOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarsten CasadyOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DBMoussa Kane · PORTAL ★3 · DUKESteve Miller · PORTAL ★3 · USCJayden Price · PORTAL ★3 · TOLEDO3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBJake Merklinger · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEEREFILLED
LBK'Von Sherman · PORTAL ★3 · TOLEDOJayden Jones · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEEmanuel Ross · PORTAL ★3 · SYRACUSEAlex Godavitarne · PORTAL ★3 · WHEELINGMatt Ragan · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJoshua Mickens · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEAvery Dunn · PORTAL ★3 · TOLEDOJames Tilus · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLTerrence Moore · PORTAL ★3 · TOLEDORaphael Greene-Nyarko · PORTAL ★3 · TOLEDONathan Pahanich · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FOREST3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UCONN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
7.10 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
13.68 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
3.70 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7373571952 OF 5 GRADED
RB525257075 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE3838541424CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL505043019CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL393939241711 OF 17 GRADED
LB45453625158 OF 15 GRADED
DB414154102211 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE47th47
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%41
RECRUITING CLASS#110 · 0/18 BC18
CLASS RANK TREND+8 · 3 CYCLES66
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 53 IN / 45 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
AFTROY CALHOUN11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
00
PACE
3232
PASS RATE
00
EXPLOSIVENESS
22
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9292
HAVOC
3232
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CONNJASON CANDLEFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5151
PACE
5353
PASS RATE
3434
EXPLOSIVENESS
4242
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HAVOC
9292
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCONN OFFENSEAF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUCONN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
12OF 138
TAL
57
PERF
73
RET
19
NATIONAL
136OF 136
RET
42
FULL DEFENSEAIR FORCE DEFENSE
CONN QUARTERBACKSn=581% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KALIEB OSBORNEQBPORTAL · TOLEDO
591ST YR4357★3+28
TUCKER MCDONALDQBRET
403RD YR14—UNR—
JAKE MERKLINGERQBPORTAL · TENNESSEE
491ST YR—64★3-23 2025
TYLER SMITHQBRET
471ST YR——UNR—
BO POLSTONQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—52★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS37% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
2886%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
2896%0%
SECONDARYDB
3042%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUCONN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
79OF 138
TAL
43
PERF
50
RET
0
DL
128OF 138
DL RET
86
LB
131OF 138
LB RET
96
FRONT-7AIR FORCE DEFENSE
CONN OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TERRENCE MOOREOLPORTAL · TOLEDO
794TH YR—64★3+50 2025
DERON MCLAUGHLINOLRET
522ND YR—43★3—
RAPHAEL GREENE-NYARKOOLPORTAL · TOLEDO
521ST YR—45★3—
CHRISTIAN RICHTEROLPORTAL · MARSHALL
483RD YR—45★3+4 2025
TY CHANOLRET
474TH YR—45★3+15 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AF FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS10% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BLAKE FLETCHERLBRET
594TH YR8931★3+13
CHAZ BARNETTDLRET
523RD YR15—UNR—
GRADY FORSYTHEDERET
523RD YR18—UNR—
JAYDEN OQUENDODLRET
504TH YR391★2—
VINNIE CANOSALBRET
483RD YR—20★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUCONN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
68OF 138
TAL
57
PERF
52
RET
0
DL
128OF 138
DL RET
86
LB
131OF 138
LB RET
96
FRONT-7AIR FORCE DEFENSE
CONN RUNNING BACKSn=7100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KENJI CHRISTIANRBTRUE FR
533RD YR6470★3+34
JADEN HARTRBPORTAL · SYRACUSE
492ND YR3328★3-42
SHAWN SIMEONRBTRUE FR
471ST YR161★3—
TREY CORNISTRBPORTAL · CENTRAL MICHIGAN
452ND YR7259★3-2
CYNCIR BOWERSRBPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
412ND YR53—UNR+17
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS10% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552886%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.452896%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUCONN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
122OF 138
TAL
54
PERF
38
RET
14
DB
137OF 138
DB RET
42
SECONDARYAIR FORCE DEFENSE
CONN PASS CATCHERSn=2486% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZY'MARION LANGWRPORTAL · TOLEDO
492ND YR3078★3—
SHAMAR PORTERWRRET
483RD YR7189★4-4
JAVON BROWNWRPORTAL · TOLEDO
481ST YR3817★3+36
JEDIYAH WILLOUGHBYWRPORTAL · TOLEDO
462ND YR99★3—
RYDER TREADWAYWRPORTAL · TOLEDO
461ST YR5745★3+33
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AF SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM58% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ROGER JONES JR.DBRET
613RD YR82—UNR+8
MAX MUSTELLDBRET
572ND YR—24★3—
EHIMEN OYAMENDANDBRET
502ND YR27—UNR—
KOREY JOHNSONDBRET
483RD YR72—UNR-22
JORDAN ELIE-STUARTDBRET
452ND YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CONN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AF
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
55.0
58.9
— OFFENSE
68.4
63.4
— DEFENSE
41.5
54.3
SP+ OVERALL
-7.2
-0.1
FPI
-10.7
-5.8
ELO
1413
1423
TALENT
653
272
PRODUCTION
20
39
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+20
−39
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.09
0.00
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CONN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AF
OFF EFFICIENCY
80
90
DEF EFFICIENCY
7
2
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
84
28
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
78
8
FINISHING DRIVES
88
82
FIELD POSITION
27
69
TURNOVER MARGIN
96
54
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CONN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AF
PASS RATE
45.4%
15.4%
PACE
30.3s
25.2s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
61.7%
88.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
60.5%
27.3%
PLAYS / GAME
59.5
71.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.4%
6.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CONN, ORANGE = AF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE