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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›UAB @ USF›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
UAB
SOUTH FLORIDA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|RAYMOND JAMES STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP29|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
125FPI
UABAACUAB
1-2
34
52
10
80%
59
28
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
63FPI
USFAACSOUTH FLORIDA
3-0
63
84
48
13%
16
40
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
UAB46CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
14
PROE
64
TEMPO
59
EXPLOSIVE14p
14
PROE64p
64
TEMPO59p
59
USF33CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
32
PROE
50
TEMPO
16
EXPLOSIVE32p
32
PROE50p
50
TEMPO16p
16
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
UABRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs3.5-8.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.8
UAB won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USFRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+19.7
SOUTH FLORIDA won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUABSOUTH FLORIDA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB100%Devin HightowerPORTAL · TULSA · 39% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTylan McNicholsLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCalvin PitcherLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB99%Jevon JacksonRB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah JacobsRB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSolomon BeebeRB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB84%Jeremiah VesselPORTAL · LIBERTY · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSirad BryantS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONT'sai McDanielCB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL83%Ezra OdinjorPORTAL · TOLEDO · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAmorie MorrisonDE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEamon SmallsPORTAL · KANSAS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE80%Elijah LaggPORTAL · PITTSBURGH · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIverson HooksPORTAL · OREGON · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon Hawkins Jr.WR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB75%Jalen KitnaQB · 75% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL60%JonDarius MorganOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon SnehOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLogan MooreOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBShaun Myers · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOMuaaz Byard · PORTAL ★3 · MIDDLE TENNESSEEMantrez Walker · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADO1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBRod Robinson II · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIAJa'Vin Simpkins · PORTAL ★3 · COASTAL CAROLINABam McReynolds · PORTAL ★3 · UL MONROE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBElijah Pratt · PORTAL ★3 · SMUGuylijah Theodule · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN MISSDiezel Wilkinson · PORTAL ★3 · MONTANA5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLMarlin Dean · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA STATESterling Sanders · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGETylin Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN WASHINGTON3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TETy Mims · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATEKJ Daniels · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMAPARTIAL
QBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
OLKeyon Cox · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATEPARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UAB
CARRIED COMPOSITE
22.212 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
35.545 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
13.37 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB46462810051 OF 5 GRADED
RB4747560103 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE43432843228 OF 22 GRADED
OL45455241177 OF 17 GRADED
DL39392810139 OF 13 GRADED
LB3333360136 OF 13 GRADED
DB36364523208 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE34th34
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%42
RECRUITING CLASS#135 · 0/10 BC0
CLASS RANK TREND-37 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 38 IN / 33 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USFBRIAN HARTLINEFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UABALEX MORTENSENFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUAB OFFENSEUSF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUAB OFFENSE
NATIONAL
93OF 138
TAL
28
PERF
46
RET
100
NATIONAL
44OF 136
RET
12
FULL DEFENSESOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE
UAB QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NATE ROGERSQBRET
522ND YR——UNR—
RYDER BURTONQBRET
503RD YR5528★3-11
ADRIAN POSSEQBRET
352ND YR—58★3—
CAM JENNINGSQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
VANDEN DUGGERQBRET
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS57% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5247%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
5456%13%
SECONDARYDB
5237%13%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUAB OFFENSE
NATIONAL
94OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
45
RET
41
DL
58OF 138
DL RET
47
LB
45OF 138
LB RET
56
FRONT-7SOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE
UAB OFFENSIVE LINEn=1759% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ADAM LEPKOWSKIOLRET
604TH YR88—UNR+28
BARRY WALKEROTRET
572ND YR—71★3—
CALIB PEREZOLRET
564TH YR7445★3+49
AMOS TALALELEOLTRUE FR
522ND YR—83★3—
PAYTON KIRKLANDOLRET
513RD YR5080★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS49% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RYAN JENKINSDTRET
623RD YR5365★3—
ASANI REDWOODDTPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
564TH YR9154★3-12
MICHAEL WILLIAMS IIDERET
554TH YR9082★3+20
GAVIN LEACHLBRET
522ND YR2632★3—
ASHTON MOSLEYLBRET
522ND YR4249★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUAB OFFENSE
NATIONAL
97OF 138
TAL
56
PERF
47
RET
0
DL
58OF 138
DL RET
47
LB
45OF 138
LB RET
56
FRONT-7SOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE
UAB RUNNING BACKSn=10100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BAM MCREYNOLDSRBTRUE FR
574TH YR9228★3+36
RODERICK ROBINSON IIRBTRUE FR
523RD YR4893★4+22
JA'VIN SIMPKINSRBPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA
463RD YR8028★3-16
AMARI BRUNDIDGERBRET
402ND YR——UNR—
MARQUISE COLLINSRBRET
373RD YR—9★3—
SHOW ALL 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS49% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555247%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455456%13%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUAB OFFENSE
NATIONAL
100OF 138
TAL
28
PERF
43
RET
43
DB
65OF 138
DB RET
37
SECONDARYSOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE
UAB PASS CATCHERSn=2257% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TY MIMSWRPORTAL · TEXAS STATE
524TH YR2828★3-17
EJ REIDWRPORTAL · WAKE FOREST
522ND YR1817★3—
GABRIEL CLINETERET
501ST YR1357★3—
LAMAR WHITEWRRET
482ND YR—84★4—
CJ SMITHWRPORTAL · MEMPHIS
454TH YR6328★3+20
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM63% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AYDEN JACKSONDBPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN
614TH YR96—UNR+30
TEDDY FOSTERCBPORTAL · FLORIDA
523RD YR3564★3—
JABARI SMITHDBRET
522ND YR—46★3—
ISRAEL BOYCESPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
503RD YR6545★3+20
HERLIN PERRY JR.CBRET
501ST YR2552★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UAB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
39.4
40.5
— OFFENSE
44.3
38.4
— DEFENSE
34.5
42.7
SP+ OVERALL
-17.3
-1.1
FPI
-14.9
0.8
ELO
1393
1682
TALENT
606
704
PRODUCTION
10
47
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+13
+2
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.09
0.13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UAB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
OFF EFFICIENCY
58
84
DEF EFFICIENCY
3
80
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
72
72
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
37
20
FINISHING DRIVES
64
94
FIELD POSITION
55
41
TURNOVER MARGIN
6
93
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UAB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
PASS RATE
39.5%
47.7%
PACE
27.0s
30.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
68.1%
57.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
58.9%
60.8%
PLAYS / GAME
66.7
58.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
1.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UAB, ORANGE = USF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE