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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›UNM @ SJSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NEW MEXICO
SAN JOSÉ STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|CEFCU STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
55FPI
UNMMWCNEW MEXICO
2-0
19
41
39
58%
68
36
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
116FPI
SJSUMWCSAN JOSÉ STATE
2-1
20
53
16
4%
69
45
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
UNM40CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
20
PROE
34
TEMPO
68
EXPLOSIVE20p
20
PROE34p
34
TEMPO68p
68
SJSU74CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
57
PROE
97
TEMPO
69
EXPLOSIVE57p
57
PROE97p
97
TEMPO69p
69
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
UNMRECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.5-4.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.4
NEW MEXICO won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
SJSURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.3-8.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.1
SAN JOSÉ STATE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNEW MEXICOSAN JOSÉ STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB77%Damon BankstonRB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIOND.J. McKinneyPORTAL · TULSA · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE52%Dorian ThomasTE · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeagan JohnsonWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael BuckleyWR · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL52%Keyshawn James-NewbyDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGabriel LopezDT · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKy'won McCrayDT · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB36%Jon JohnsonCB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb ColemanS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL30%Richard PearceOL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsrael MukwizaOL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah SillemonOL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
LB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBJerod Terry · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TETroy Omeire · PORTAL ★3 · UNLVJoey Olsen · PORTAL ★3 · USCBear Tenney · PORTAL ★3 · SACRAMENTO STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLBrody Litton · SIGNEE ★3Walter Moore · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBOrmanie Arnold · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATIAzari Warren · SIGNEE ★3Xavier Rivera-Rogers · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLTy Gates · SIGNEE ★3Sebastian Dawkins · SIGNEE ★3Danzel Newell · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
LBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NEW MEXICO
CARRIED COMPOSITE
58.294 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
52.778 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
61.392 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB383817562 OF 6 GRADED
RB4646764664 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE4343322224CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL363617019CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL666630832010 OF 20 GRADED
LB57574587103 OF 10 GRADED
DB515125822310 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE19th19
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%20
RECRUITING CLASS#87 · 0/26 BC35
CLASS RANK TREND+114 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 15 IN / 14 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SJSUKEN NIUMATALOLO3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2929
PACE
4848
PASS RATE
3636
EXPLOSIVENESS
5151
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5555
HAVOC
6767
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UNMJASON ECK2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4040
PACE
2222
PASS RATE
3333
EXPLOSIVENESS
5555
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9595
HAVOC
7575
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUNM OFFENSESJSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNEW MEXICO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
117OF 138
TAL
17
PERF
38
RET
5
NATIONAL
118OF 136
RET
3
FULL DEFENSESAN JOSÉ STATE DEFENSE
UNM QUARTERBACKSn=695% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMES LAUBSTEINQBRET
544TH YR25—UNR—
TOA FA'AVAEQBRET
512ND YR1927★3—
LUKE MOGAQBPORTAL · OREGON
493RD YR2845★3—
JACK LAYNEQBRET
504TH YR—17★3—
CADE MITCHELLQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—74★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SJSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 46 PLAYERS68% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3863%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
3683%0%
SECONDARYDB
401%6%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNEW MEXICO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
118OF 138
TAL
17
PERF
36
RET
0
DL
113OF 138
DL RET
63
LB
111OF 138
LB RET
83
FRONT-7SAN JOSÉ STATE DEFENSE
UNM OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KADEN ROBNETTOLRET
574TH YR—9★3+7 2025
MALIK ALIANEOLRET
544TH YR——UNR-18 2025
TEVIN SHAWOLRET
484TH YR—17★3—
JAYMAR TASIOLRET
482ND YR—42★3+6 2025
TYLER LAWRENCEOLRET
444TH YR—9★3-43 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SJSU FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS29% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JUSTIN STEARNSDLRET
614TH YR7745★3+19
NASERI DANIELSONLBRET
573RD YR5252★3—
DYLAN LEELBRET
553RD YR4825★3—
JEREMIAH TUIILEILADLTRUE FR
521ST YR3143★3—
IAN SHEWELLDLPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
524TH YR—9★3-29 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNEW MEXICO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
102OF 138
TAL
76
PERF
46
RET
46
DL
113OF 138
DL RET
63
LB
111OF 138
LB RET
83
FRONT-7SAN JOSÉ STATE DEFENSE
UNM RUNNING BACKSn=654% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DESHAUN BUCHANANRBRET
504TH YR—28★3—
CAMERON MATHEWSRBTRUE FR
492ND YR14—UNR—
KIEFER SIBLEYRBTRUE FR
483RD YR6362★3+11
SCOTTRE HUMPHREYRBRET
414TH YR6285★3+17
JEROD TERRY JR.RBTRUE FR
351ST YR—52★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SJSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS28% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553863%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453683%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENEW MEXICO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
104OF 138
TAL
32
PERF
43
RET
23
DB
124OF 138
DB RET
1
SECONDARYSAN JOSÉ STATE DEFENSE
UNM PASS CATCHERSn=2478% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CADE KEITHTERET
703RD YR501★2+47
TROY OMEIREWRPORTAL · UNLV
514TH YR9278★30
TRIPP WALSHTETRUE FR
504TH YR1913★2—
ZHAIEL SMITHWRRET
412ND YR6419★3-15
MASSIAH MINGOWRTRUE FR
351ST YR—62★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SJSU SECONDARYn=17 · 1 ROOM99% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ISAIAH BUXTONCBPORTAL · SAN DIEGO STATE
572ND YR5264★3—
CALEB WOMACKCBRET
544TH YR372★2—
GRECO CARRILLOCBRET
522ND YR2616★3—
RUNYE NORTONCBRET
504TH YR32—UNR—
TULI TAGOVAILOA-AMOSASRET
502ND YR3919★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UNM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SJSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
46.1
43.0
— OFFENSE
48.9
45.5
— DEFENSE
43.3
40.4
SP+ OVERALL
5.0
-12.5
FPI
2.7
-11.0
ELO
1564
1407
TALENT
568
569
PRODUCTION
51
12
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−38
+3
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.04
0.05
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UNM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SJSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
44
58
DEF EFFICIENCY
64
39
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
63
55
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
57
36
FINISHING DRIVES
57
6
FIELD POSITION
63
88
TURNOVER MARGIN
28
7
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UNM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SJSU
PASS RATE
33.6%
51.7%
PACE
26.3s
26.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
68.9%
51.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
41.9%
58.3%
PLAYS / GAME
68.5
69.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
5.8%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UNM, ORANGE = SJSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE