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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›OHIO @ AKR›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
OHIO
AKRON
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2026
TUE 19:00 ET|INFOCISION STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP6|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
112FPI
OHIOMACOHIO
1-2
7
53
12
63%
32
26
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
130FPI
AKRMACAKRON
1-2
12
7
19
92%
48
14
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
OHIO31CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
48
PROE
13
TEMPO
32
EXPLOSIVE48p
48
PROE13p
13
TEMPO32p
32
AKR36CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
0
PROE
61
TEMPO
48
EXPLOSIVE0p
0
PROE61p
61
TEMPO48p
48
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
OHIORECORD MATCHES
1-2ACTUALvs1.0-2.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-10.3
OHIO won 1 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 1.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
AKRRECORD MATCHES
1-2ACTUALvs1.0-2.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.0
AKRON won 1 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 1.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROHIOAKRON2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB97%Parker NavarroQB · 97% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL96%Davion WeatherspoonOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick MarinaroOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordon JonesOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE84%Chase HendricksPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRodney Harris IIWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMason WilliamsPORTAL · OHIO STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB74%Adonis Williams Jr.S · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen ThomesonPORTAL · SAN DIEGO STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTank PearsonCB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB68%Sieh BanguraRB · 67% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL48%Anas LuqmanPORTAL · UCONN · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPius OdjugoDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin MitchellDT · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB27%Cameron HollobaughLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMakel WilliamsLB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBLevi Davis · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLCJ Dawson · PORTAL ★3 · GARDNER-WEBBSandro Malicevic · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN ILLINOISTrumain Lawson · PORTAL ★3 · LIU POST4 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
WR/TEPreston Bowman · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYRiley Palmeter · PORTAL ★3 · MARIAN COLLEGERiley Palmeter · PORTAL ★3 · MARIAN3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBKJ Sejour · PORTAL ★3 · CHATTANOOGAKindall Brown · SIGNEE ★3James Brewer III · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBJames Kelly · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLTyler Gillison · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEAustin Adkins · SIGNEE ★3Nate Hunt-Heller · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OHIO
CARRIED COMPOSITE
30.023 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
9.74 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
42.356 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6666—9072 OF 7 GRADED
RB5858355064 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE3131571924CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL333313018CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL38383767167 OF 16 GRADED
LB40402588105 OF 10 GRADED
DB30302861228 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE7th7
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#107 · 0/18 BC20
CLASS RANK TREND-15 · 3 CYCLES20
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 20 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
AKRJOE MOORHEAD5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8686
PACE
4343
PASS RATE
9393
EXPLOSIVENESS
88
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2121
HAVOC
4848
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OHIOJOHN HAUSERFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3131
PACE
2929
PASS RATE
4444
EXPLOSIVENESS
3434
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
88
HAVOC
2828
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESOHIO OFFENSEAKR OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOHIO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
25OF 138
TAL
—
PERF
66
RET
90
NATIONAL
111OF 136
RET
52
FULL DEFENSEAKRON DEFENSE
OHIO QUARTERBACKSn=710% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NICK POULOSQBRET
504TH YR52—UNR-47
LEVI DAVISQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—60★3—
MATT VEZZAQBTRUE FR
353RD YR10—UNR+47
LEVI DAVISQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—60★3—
HYPE GRANDQBRET
351ST YR—40★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AKR DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS44% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5143%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
424%0%
SECONDARYDB
4080%14%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOHIO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
127OF 138
TAL
13
PERF
33
RET
0
DL
65OF 138
DL RET
43
LB
92OF 138
LB RET
4
FRONT-7AKRON DEFENSE
OHIO OFFENSIVE LINEn=18100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SANDRO MALICEVICOLTRUE FR
374TH YR—28★3—
CASSIUS HULBERTOLTRUE FR
374TH YR—2★3—
BEN MALDONADOOLRET
524TH YR——UNR—
BRYCE PARSONOLRET
522ND YR—47★3—
JARIAN SHELBYOLRET
484TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AKR FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS73% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DONELIUS JOHNSONLBTRUE FR
714TH YR8028★3+20
KURTIS WAYEDETRUE FR
524TH YR31—UNR—
JALEN WILLIAMSDTTRUE FR
524TH YR31—UNR—
OMARI ABORDETRUE FR
524TH YR5045★3—
DAUNTE CURTISLBTRUE FR
491ST YR3248★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOHIO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
41OF 138
TAL
35
PERF
58
RET
50
DL
65OF 138
DL RET
43
LB
92OF 138
LB RET
4
FRONT-7AKRON DEFENSE
OHIO RUNNING BACKSn=650% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DUNCAN BRUNERBRET
493RD YR8129★3-28
VICTOR ROSARBPORTAL · UCONN
464TH YR9637★3-23
IRVING BROWNRBRET
411ST YR634★3—
MIKE TAYLOR JR.RBRET
411ST YR658★3—
JAMES KELLYRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—41★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AKR FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS75% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555143%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.45424%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOHIO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
135OF 138
TAL
57
PERF
31
RET
19
DB
125OF 138
DB RET
80
SECONDARYAKRON DEFENSE
OHIO PASS CATCHERSn=2481% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANDREW METZGERTETRUE FR
512ND YR747★3—
AJ MILLERTERET
502ND YR220★3—
EIAN PUGHWRRET
444TH YR6472★3-45
DOM DORWARTWRRET
442ND YR7353★3-24
JAKE FURTNEYTEPORTAL · ILLINOIS
402ND YR—62★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AKR SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM20% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TERENCE THOMASSRET
564TH YR6361★3+19
MEHKI FLOWERSDBRET
554TH YR6893★4-36
TAIRAN DAVIS JR.DBRET
522ND YR4137★3—
ZACH HOBSONCBPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
524TH YR399★3—
KHORY MOSSDBPORTAL · MIAMI (OH)
521ST YR2517★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
OHIO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AKR
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
47.0
44.6
— OFFENSE
55.6
53.3
— DEFENSE
38.4
36.0
SP+ OVERALL
-12.3
-18.6
FPI
-10.2
-17.9
ELO
1318
897
TALENT
523
547
PRODUCTION
18
7
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−11
+5
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.00
0.09
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
OHIO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AKR
OFF EFFICIENCY
31
60
DEF EFFICIENCY
9
40
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
48
0
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
19
18
FINISHING DRIVES
29
80
FIELD POSITION
34
87
TURNOVER MARGIN
17
35
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
OHIO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AKR
PASS RATE
47.9%
56.9%
PACE
28.7s
27.7s
4TH-DOWN GO RATE
17%
20%
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
57.3%
51.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
58.1%
77.6%
PLAYS / GAME
62.7
65.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
3.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = OHIO, ORANGE = AKR) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE